AFL Round 24 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs Fremantle
Saturday 1:45pm AEST, August 26th, MCG
Hawthorn put in another impressive performance against a top eight side, in their 27 point loss to Melbourne last week. The Hawks were within six points early in the last quarter, before Melbourne kicked the final three goals of the game to run out winners. There were plenty of positives for the Hawks once again as they have shown their ability to compete against the better sides in the league, after a deplorable start to the season.
Hawthorn will welcome Jai Newcombe back after he was a late withdrawal in Round 23 with hamstring tightness. Brandon Ryan also returns to the 22, with Denver Grainger-Barras (calf), Ned Long (omitted) and Max Ramsden (omitted) making way.
Fremantle kicked three of the last four goals against Port Adelaide, however it was too little, too late as the Dockers went down by 16 points. It was the Dockers sixth loss from their last eight games in what has been a disappointing campaign, after winning a final in 2022.
Fremantle have made two changes this week with Michael Walters and Joel Hamling named in the side for the final game of the season. Jaeger O’Meara (calf) and Bailey Banfield (shoulder) missing through injury, while last week’s sub Neil Erasmus hasn’t held his spot.
Hawthorn’s improvement across the last month has been built on their young midfield beginning to establish themselves. In their last three games the Hawks have recorded +246 disposals, +25 contested possession, +16 centre clearances and +13 clearances. Coming against two top four sides in Collingwood and Melbourne, as well as the Bulldogs who were in the top eight at the time, these are some serious performances by the young Hawks.
Another bright spot for Hawthorn has been the form of Finn Maginness, who has established himself as arguably the best tagger in the competition this season. Maginness held Clayton Oliver to ten disposals in three quarters whilst he was matched up on Oliver.
Who Sam Mitchell sends Maginness to this week will be an interesting decision, in previous years it would have been Andy Brayshaw, however given Caleb Serong’s form in 2023, it’s likely Maginness goes to Serong.
The Dockers have struggled in the middle of the ground this season, ranking 12th contested possessions with the flow on effect seeing them ranked 16th for inside 50’s. Although they’re a high possession side, they win the majority of their possessions in the back half of the ground. Fremantle have been poor through the centre of the ground and as a result have struggled to generate scoring opportunities, which sees them ranked 13th in the league in points for.
It’s hard to go against Hawthorn with what they’ve shown in the last three weeks against quality opposition, and if they can continue their hot form in the middle of the ground, it’s going to be a tough ask for Fremantle to generate scores from their back half.
Hawthorn to Win
$1.61 (2 Units)
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Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals: Jai Newcombe has had an excellent season averaging 25 disposals per game, and the young Hawk has continued to get better as the year has gone on. Newcombe has averaged 29 disposals per game across his last six games, hitting the 25+ disposal mark in five of those six games.
Liam Henry 25+ Disposals: Liam Henry is in career best form in the second half of this season, finding his role on the wing for the Dockers. Since Round 16, Henry is averaging 24 disposals per game, with three 30+ disposal games, including last week against Port Adelaide where he recorded 31 disposals.
Dylan Moore Anytime Goalscorer: Despite seeing more midfield minutes this season, Dylan Moore still has found a way to hit the scoreboard on a consistent basis. Moore has kicked a goal in each of his last five games, and has kicked six goals in his last four games against Fremantle.
SGM Odds: $4.33 at BoomBet
