Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Hawkesbury on Saturday, April 28th.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position. The card is headlined by three Group 3 races – the Godolphin Crown, the Gold Cup and the Hawkesbury Guineas.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below.
HAWKESBURY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Roman Son
Best Value: Race 4 #7 Bezel
RACE 1
A very low edition of the Highway Handicap to kick things off, with (1) She Knows a $1.80 favourite. We may get a better price on the day, but she does look hard to beat against this field. She went close in a Highway two starts ago, then took a trip to Melbourne, and returns here in a very winnable race. Perhaps the value and biggest threat could be (3) Don’t Doubt Her, who was a last-start winner and draws well in barrier 4 here. I could entertain something on at the $8 if looking outside the favourite.
TIP: (1) She Knows
RACE 2
Three I’ll be playing around here. (2) Graff goes on top. He backed up two nice trials with a sound win on debut at Rosehill. I like the fact he recorded a city-class win as comfortably as he did on debut and he’s since been back to the trials and looked good. Draws well in barrier 4 and Kerrin McEvoy takes over today, so he ticks plenty of boxes at $3.70. McEvoy also rode (3) Orcein in a trial earlier this prep, and with Schofield out, I feel he might have had first choice on this Waller horse, who is first up today. He won that trial McEvoy rode him in, and for a Waller horse, that’s a good sign. He’s since had another quiet trial. Shinn jumps on but he’s drawn a touch sticky so is likely to be coming from behind Graff. The value could be (4) Momentum Factor, who was very solidly backed when winning at Warwick Farm last start. I quite like the horse he beat (Adana) and the long straight here looks suitable for him. Jason Collett keeps the ride and at $7 he’s a live chance.
TIP: (2) Graff / (4) Momentum Factor EW
RACE 3
I have queries over a number of runners here which has left me with (10) Gaulois on top. He’s first up here since racing during the WA carnival at the end of last year. He resumes as a gelding and has had two relatively quiet trials leading into his first up run today. I think it’s a decent hint that Kerrin McEvoy is booked for the ride and as I said above, there’s a few reservations about a few others so I’ve landed with him on top. (3) Dagny could be the value at $8.50. She resumed with a good run when 3rd over 1400m. She’s since had two months off but has been back to the trials – either she’s had a setback or they’ve set her for a few of these races and have kept her fresh and fit with the trial. Betfair will tell the story pre-race. If she’s solid in the market, have something on. I was keen on (4) Philosophy first up but he was a touch disappointing. Blinkers go on for the first time today and if they switch him on then he’s a big chance. (7) In Times of War just hates winning so the $5.50 is short enough for her. (2) Stonebrook was legless last start but has since been back to the trials and won that trial. He’s got four wins from eight starts so if he bounces back he’ll be giving this a big shake.
TIP: (10) Gaulois
RACE 4
Wide open race. Again, there’s a few horses which have plenty of questions to answer. I was quite taken by the performance of (7) Bezel, who isn’t the first Godolphin horse of late that has found a new lease of life for a new trainer. That was his third run back from a spell last start and he was well backed before putting them away quite easily on the Kensington track. He should relish the straight here at Hawkesbury and looks a legitimate chance to win again at $7.50. (1) Up ‘N’ Rolling comes out of some decent form races, particularly behind the likes of Osbourne Bulls, but he still should at least have a win next to his name this prep. McEvoy goes back on today and he draws nice enough. No surprise to see him fight out the finish. (8) Hunter Jack appeals as a value chance first up, and no doubt the most interesting runner in the race is the European import on Australian debut, (15) Solo Mission. He’s only ever won beyond 2250m, so I’d be hesitant backing him here.
TIP: (7) Bezel EW
RACE 5
Competitive race and they might go hard here. I just kept coming back to the freshly-gelded (9) Tango Rain, who has once again trialled well as he prepares for his first up run here. He is the likely leader in the race and even though there looks to be plenty of on-speed horses on paper, I think he’s got the tactical speed to hold them out for the lead fairly comfortably. McEvoy will have had the choice of a few rides here and elects to partner him, and he looks a deserved favourite at $4.20. (1) The Monstar is the best credentialed horse in the race and comes here first up as well. He’s got a good fresh record and will likely trail the speed. If he was set for this fresh he’d give it a good shake at $9. Would prefer a bit of juice in the track and there is a bit of rain predicted, so if it gets to the soft range he would be a big player. (7) Passage Of Time is still lightly raced and has plenty of ability. He is another that’s first up. The query is McEvoy rode him in his latest trial but rides Tango Rain here. Loses nothing with Tim Clark going on, and he is undefeated first up. (3) Le Cordon Bleu and (6) Denmagic chances at longer odds.
TIP: (9) Tango Rain / (1) The Monstar EW
RACE 6
I’ve tried to make cases for many horses here but I just keep coming back to the same three. (10) Sedanzer returns from a spell here, last seen running over 2200m during the Gold Coast Magic Millions carnival. That’s a concern for mine with her resuming over 1300m here, but the reports are that they’ve trained her specifically for these shorter distances and made sure she’s got speed in her legs. She does look the class horse, but I hate backing these horses resuming from long distance races. (9) Invincibella resumed with a great run behind Quilista in the G2 Sapphire Stakes, finishing 4th beaten 2.3L after settling back in the field. She has a terrific record second up from a spell (never finished outside the top two) and a terrific record at this distance. From the good draw, I just can’t see her not being in the finish. (4) White Moss also resumed in that same race as Invincibella, finishing 3rd, beaten 2L. She’s undefeated second up from a spell and I love the booking of Jason Collett today. Stands a great chance here. I’ll be taking on Sedanzer, which might prove costly, and backing both Invincibella and White Moss.
TIP: (9) Invincibella / (4) White Moss
RACE 7
Siding with a couple of Chris Waller runners here. (6) Mister Sea Wolfe goes on top, with Kerrin McEvoy once again the jockey of choice. He started his campaign with two good efforts behind Lanciato and Cellarman, before drawing terribly in the Doncaster Mile and finishing down the field. Smaller field here will suit, McEvoy jumping back on is an obvious plus and any rain will suit too. Taking $6. (9) My Nordic Hero is a smokey at $21. This is his second campaign in Australia and his second start for this preparation. His second up record is unblemished, he’d need to improve sharply but he’s not the worst here. (10) Lovani was a last-start winner over 2000m at this track and drops back to 1600m here. She’s got a great record at the distance and isn’t hopeless. Tough race.
TIP: (6) Mister Sea Wolfe / (9) My Nordic Hero EW
RACE 8
(2) Victorem faces his toughest test to date in Group 3 company here. He’s won five of his six races (his only loss was on debut), but the reality is he’s only ever won country races or Highway Handicaps. This is a proper test today, particularly with the barrier he’s drawn. He’s short enough in the market for mine. (4) Sambro goes on top for me at $6. I’d rather back him each way than take the shorts about Victorem. He was solid first up and then luckless last start in this grade when held up the entire straight. The wide barrier today will ensure that doesn’t happen, and I expect him to be hard to beat. Interestingly, Avdulla jumps off him to ride (14) Montrachet for the Hawkes Team, who he rode to victory last start. Don’t be surprised to see her met with support. (12) Warranty won well first up from a short break last start. Steps up in grade here but has been competitive in this sort of company before.
TIP: (4) Sambro EW
RACE 9
Best bet of the day here and $1.95 is a perfectly fine price. (3) Roman Son is a good horse and he’s bounced back to his best form this preparation under new trainer Richard Freedman. He bolted in by 4L last start and steps up in distance once again third up today. The distance is no issue as he’s already won over this sort of trip. He draws well, has McEvoy on board and looks nearly unbeatable here.
TIP: (3) Roman Son
