Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Hawkesbury on Saturday, April 27th.
The nine-race card is the standalone metropolitan meeting in New South Wales this weekend, with the Hawkesbury Cup, Guineas, Rush and Crown all on the program.
We've got tips and comments for every race on the card below.
HAWKESBURY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 Tactical Advantage
Best Value Bet: Race 4 Aqua D'ivina
RACE 1
Hard race to kick off the program with. Leaning towards the Waller horses as he typically takes out these sorts of staying events in Sydney. Bajan Gold looks to be the top seed with McDonald booked to ride. He's had four starts this pre but two of those can be overlooked because they were on wet tracks and he simply doesn't go well on that ground. He wasn't beaten far last start and gets his chance to break through for his first Australian win today. Belfast Bella was luckless two starts ago and atoned for that with a win last start at this track. Carries just 50.5kg after the claim for Robbie Dolan today. Looks a good chance again but this is a step up in grade. Ombudsman gets the winkers on for the first time and should be much better suited stepping up to 2100m today at his third run back from a spell. He always needs his first two runs back, but he won third up at this track when he broke his maiden this time last year. King Viv and Letter To Juliette chances. Unlikely to bet here.
RACE 2
Bastia was well backed last start but never saw daylight, going to the line untested. He draws the inside barrier again today so is going to need luck but he looks ready to win. He's also got a good record at this track and a good record at the distance. If he gets some room to move off the inside, he can win this. Chalmers has been terrific in two starts back from a spell. Both of them were provincial races and this is probably a step up in grade on what she's been racing against, but she's measured up to this sort of class before. James McDonald keeps the ride and she should be ready to win third up from a spell. Harmattan went down by the narrowest of margins last start in the same race that Bastia was unlucky in. Has to be rated a chance again.
RACE 3
Erno has the obvious form on the board with two wins from two starts, making him clearly the one to beat, but there's a few outsie him I'm interested in. Jailbreak trialled really nicely leading into this first up run and he resumes with the blinkers on for the first time. This is his second prep and he's lightly-weighted here so looks a bit of value at $6.00. Godolphin have absolutely dominated the two-year-old races this season and their sole representative in this race is Shaibanat at double figure odds. He was beaten a length on debut at Gosford at big odds. I wouldn't be discounting a Godolphin runner in a race like this. Creator started the $2.35 favourite in a maiden here last start, but was held up until the 100m mark. He debuted in a race behind Czarson and Kiamichi and started favourite, so he's clearly got a little bit of talent. Needs to improve but JMac going on is a positive. Brandenburg not hopeless at all.
RACE 4
Good race. You could easily make a case for a number of horses in this race. As the market currently sits, I'll be betting small on a couple runners. I think the favourites have definite chances of winning but they're a bit short for me in a deep race. Pecans is one runner I'll have something on. She resumes from a 17-week spell and her first up record sits at seven starts for three wins and three 2nds. She's had three trials leading into this and has progressed steadily in each of them. She's undefeated at the track and has three wins from five starts at the distance. In fact, she won here first up last prep. Has to carry top weight but looks a good hope. Aqua D'ivina is also first up from a spell. She's just had one trial leading into this (Irithea and Pecans were in the same trial). She's only missed a place once from eight career starts and has finished 2nd on all three occasions when first up. At double figure odds, I think she's the value in the race. Whether she's going to want further is the query. Manicure drops out of Group 1 company back to a Group 3. Her form prior to last start was very good for a race like this. Irithea will probably lead and she won second up last prep. She's had 10 starts at the distance for five placings but is yet to win one. She has won over 1200m and 1400m though, so it's not really an issue. She'll take plenty of running down. Multaja is flying but barrier 1 really doesn't help her. She tends to settle off the pace so she's going to need an A-grade ride from JMac to win, which is possible but you're taking a skinny price.
Value: Aqua D'ivina $9.50
RACE 5
Little to no idea about this race. Major Danger won at the Sapphire Coast two starts ago before starting favourite at Goulburn last start. He was caught three-wide on speed and was beaten 0.8L into 4th. James McDonald goes on today so I'll give him the nod. Marokawa could be the value for Rod Northam and Tim Clark. He won a 900m race first up at Scone and had nothing go right last start. He slipped at the start and lost 3L. Was beaten less than 2L at the finish so it wasn't a bad effort all things considered. Won his only previous race when third up and the big jockey change today helps. Zardoro probably has the best metropolitan form in the race and was a last-start winner of a Highway. Struggles to put his head in front but he'll be around the mark.
RACE 6
Tactical Advantage has all the weight to carry here but he looks the best horse in the race and should probably win anyway. He won three of his first four starts last preparation and four of eight overall. He's trialled well, has a great first up record and a great record at the distance. James McDonald jumps off Intuition, who is a Godolphin horse that's won his past two starts, and instead takes the ride on Tactical Advantage, which is a pretty good hint. Spending To Win looks the value to me at $12 (Bet365). He's first up as well and he's never finished out of the placings from five starts when fresh. He's only ever missed a place once from 12 starts at the distance and he was 2nd in this race last year - his only start at the track. Junglized and Latin Boy others to throw in at bigger odds. Happy to suggest backing Tactical Advantage at $2.20 and Spending To Win at $12.
Value: Spending To Win $12
RACE 7
Tricky race and tough to separate those at the top of the market. I'm going to give Trope one more chance. He's been racing against the big boys in town, finishing 3.3L off Classique Legend in Group 2 company last start. Prior to that he ran 2nd to Prophet's Thumb in the Listed Fireball Stakes. I'm not typically a big fan of Christian Reith but he takes the ride. He'll probably need every inch of the Hawkesbury straight. Kylease has won her past three on the trot. She's been dominant lately but this is clearly her toughest test. She's capable of measuring up and she was well-backed as soon as markets opened. Military Zone went down as the odds on favourite first up but still ran well in defeat. Second up at 1400m suits him much better. JMac keeps the ride after piloting him in three trials and his first up defeat. Quackerjack won his first start as a gelding and can be competitive.
RACE 8
This isn't a race I'm eager to bet in but it looks to have a very long tail here, made up of horses that simply don't look winning chances. I backed Zourkhan first up and he was only narrowly beaten by stablemate Star Of The Seas. He probably had everything in his favour that day to run well - JMac was on, he had wet ground and was first up. He's probably not as well suited back onto firm ground today but if I had to bet, he'd be the one I would back. JMac can't make the weight on him so he rides Kaonic for Waller, who must be a chance in a race like this. Archedemus was defeated in the Provincial Championship Final. He can bounce back here, dropping to 53kg and stepping up to the mile. New Universe always seems to be around the mark in races like this, he could pop up fresh.
No bet
RACE 9
Another tough race to finish off with. Grimoire isn't the worst hope at double figure odds here. He won over this track and distance three starts ago before running 2nd to Quackerjack at Kensington. Last start he had no luck, caught four-wide without cover at Warwick Farm. Drops in weight today, gets a positive jockey change and obviously goes well at the track and distance. He's an each way chance. McDonald takes the ride on Signore Fox, who has been well-backed early. He wasn't far off the likes of Fasika and Millard Reaction in a good little race last start, and was 2nd to Echo Jet before that. Gets a 5.5kg weight swing on Echo Jet today, so on all that, should prove very tough to beat. Wagner gets winkers back on and can be competitive. Happy to back Grimoire each way, possibly with a saver on Signore Fox.
