Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Happy Valley on Wednesday, September 25th.
Racing returns to the Valley tonight after last week's meeting was cancelled. We've got an early start tonight with nine races scheduled.
Check out our race-by-race preview, tips and best bets for the evening below!
Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 25th
Best Bet: Race 9 - (6) Reliable Team
Best Value: Race 8 - (1) Sichuan Dar
Race 1
It's very rare that we start a Happy Valley meeting with a Class 2 but that's the case tonight and we have a decent little field assembled, despite the small numbers. (6) Tianchi Monster is the horse I'm keen to side with here. He was a three-time winner in Class 3 over 1800m-2000m last prep, before a midfield finish in the Derby and a failed effort in Class 1. He's fresh up tonight after a good break and even though he's never won first up before, I think he should be ready to go tonight with two trials under the belt. Purton has ridden the horse three times for three wins and he's been on in both trials leading into tonight. He's only raced once previously at the Valley but he did place on that occasion. I think he's got the potential to win in this Class and maybe even higher, so from the good draw with the light weight I expect he'll take some holding out. (1) Green Luck won first up last start over 1650m here at the Valley, but notably Joao Moreira has jumped off him to ride (3) Mr So And So for John Size, and I dare say Purton has chosen Tianchi Monster over Green Luck too. Should be a great race to kick off with.
(6) Tianchi Monster
$4.20
Race 2
(5) Adonis exploded away to win on his stable debut for Douglas Whyte, posting a 2.5L win at Sha Tin over this distance. Given the complete lack of form of most of these tonight, he should be able to win again if he can produce a similar performance. (1) Compassion Star is his danger in my opinion. He's only had the two career wins but he was ridden by Purton on both occasions and he jumps back aboard for the first time in a while tonight. He's drawn wide but he'll look to spear across to the front if he can. He also receives a drop in Class tonight and it's often a big positive when a horse drops in Class and gets Purton booked to ride at the top of the weights. We can probably play on both of those horses at $3.50 and $5.00 respectively. One to throw in numbers at huge odds is (8) Great Victory. He's also dropping in Class tonight and his recent trial was his best piece of work to date. He's a $61 chance.
Also backing Compassion Star $5.00
Race 3
(6) Takingufurther was last seen when winning over this track and distance in May. His first two career starts he had excuses but his two starts since then have been very good. He's drawn a winning gate tonight in 2 and he's still very lightly raced, so he has the ability to improve still and that will see him very hard to beat. (3) Happy Time doesn't have particularly good form in his most recent starts but he's had a stable change in the off-season and makes his debut for Chris So tonight. He actually trialled quite well leading into this and Purton is booked for the ride. Again, he's a horse dropping in Class for the first time since he's been in Hong Kong, and when Purton goes on in these instances they often go very close. Notably, Moreira actually trialled Happy Time to victory but instead rides (9) Shamport for Casper Fownes. This is a horse that's often well in the market but continues to disappoint. He did trial well enough to suggest he can run well but he's yet to win a race in Hong Kong. (5) Iron Boy is another horse making its stable debut for Douglas Whyte. Look for improvement from him.
Race 4
Only one horse really appeals to me here and that's (1) Such A Happiness with Moreira aboard. He ran 2nd at Sha Tin last start and recorded the fastest final 400m of the race. He'd trialled well leading into that and he did win over the mile three runs back. He gets his chance tonight despite carrying top weight. (3) Family Leader is the favourite but he needs absolutely everything to go his way to win, and even then he struggles to get his head in front. His sole victory to date was over this track and distance though.
(1) Such A Happiness
$5.00
Race 5
This honestly looks a race in two between Purton and Moreira's mounts. Purton rides (7) Smart Of Youth who makes his debut after two trials, the latest of which he won with Zac aboard. I don't think there's a great deal of depth to this field so if he has any ability - which the trials suggest he does - then he'll be right in this. It's not easy to win on debut though and the Valley is a tricky track for horses having their first start, especially when they haven't trialled there. (9) King's Trooper is yet to place in four starts in Hong Kong but his recent trial suggests he's improved significantly and Moreira sticks with him for the race. The horse has so far only been ridden by Neil Callan and Martin Harley so having Moreira on board is a major upgrade. Happy to back Smart Of Youth ($5.00) and save on King's Trooper ($3.60).
Save on (9) King's Trooper $3.60
Race 6
Good little race and I could make a case for all four of the top market elects. (4) Explosive Witness gets the all-important inside barrier draw, which is a huge plus over the 1000m on the A-course at the Valley. He's got the ability but he's clearly had a lot of issues given he's only had three career starts as a five-year-old. If he can be in touch of the leaders from barrier 1, expect him to be right in the finish. (6) Frustrated was poor last start but gets Alfie Chan back on tonight (and therefore a big weight relief) as well as the key drop back to 1000m, which suits him much better than 1200m. (11) Aquila won his last start which was over this track and distance in Class 4. He looked good in a recent trial and can make the step up to Class 3 tonight with the light weight. That weight means Purton has to forfeit the ride to Moreira. (12) Gentle Breeze won two starts back over this track and distance and put in a good effort stepping up to Class 3 last start. If he can settle closer to the speed from barrier 2 I expect him to be very competitive. I can't really split them but I think the $5.50 for Gentle Breeze is good, while the $6 for Explosive Witness is also appealing given his barrier draw. With that said, I couldn't turn anyone off the favourite, he's just a bit short in the market for my liking.
Value: (4) Explosive Witness $6.00
Race 7
The price about (9) High Rev is absolute madness here. There's no way he should be equal favourite! His last start win was enormous but that was purely thanks to one of the best rides you'll ever see from Purton, where he made a mid-race move and put the rest of the field to the sword. That was also over 1650m, this is over 1200m - a distance he's never placed at. (4) Fearless Fire draws the inside gate here for Purton and he's got a good record at this track and distance, including a last-start win. (5) Smart Leader was also a last-start winner over this track and distance but he cops a bit of a weight rise as a result and his winning margin wasn't great. (12) Split Of A Second definitely has the ability to run a big race here with the light weight. Drawn well and has a reasonably good record over this track and distance.
Race 8
(5) Last Kingdom was another Douglas Whyte stable import that won on his first start for the trainer. He goes up in weight tonight which is hard to overcome in Hong Kong but he's drawn softly and can win again. (1) Sichuan Dar has been badly out of form but he actually goes alright fresh and he drops into Class 3 tonight. He's also got a good record at the track and distance and he's also got the added benefit of barrier 1 tonight. He looks a bit of value at double figures. (3) Win Win has the ability on his day but he can also put in a shocker. He's got an awkward draw to contend with. (9) Jenerator looks hard to beat with Moreira on board.
Value: (1) Sichuan Dar $12
Race 9
(6) Reliable Team looks the winner here. He's two from two to date and won by a convincing margin last time we saw him back in July. He's trialled well again leading into his seasonal reappearance tonight and so long as he gets a good run from barrier 10, he should prove very hard to beat again. Looks one of the best bets of the night. (12) Le Terroir from the inside barrier with the light weight looks the obvious danger.
