Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Happy Valley on Wednesday, May 6th.
Another nine-race card awaits us in Hong Kong, as we try to build on a great day at The Bool! We're racing on the B-course for tonight's meeting.
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips for the card below!
Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 6th
Best Bet: Race 4 - (9) Eptiwins
Best Value: Race 7 - (7) Such A Happiness
This race is a headache, so I won't be getting too involved here. Our favourite is (2) Loriz who gets absolutely every conceivable chance tonight. Purton takes over, he draws barrier 4 and his two career wins have been at this track and distance. With that said, he is a horse that can mix his form badly, and he's had his chance without being able to get the job done recently. He might not have handled the quick back-up last start, so forgive him for that, he looks better placed with a break leading into tonight. Purton has eight winners from 17 rides for Ricky Yiu, so as I said, everything lines up, but I still can't get him $2.65. (1) Super Lucky is flying, with a win and four 2nds from his past five starts. He draws awful in barrier 12 tonight but he drew awful last start and still ran 2nd after reeling off the fastest final 400m of the race. He has to be at least a very strong place chance tonight. (3) Monkey Jewellery dropped into Class 4 last start and ran 3rd. He started from barrier 10 that night and draws better in barrier 6 here. Moreira sticks, so he has claims. (7) This Is Charisma is a horse I was really keen to back each way, but he can really turn it up a bit. Two starts ago he was beaten 0.6L here over track and distance, but he had every chance in the world that night and after looking like he was going to win easily at the 200m, he failed to run a place. He drew barrier 1 that night but draws 7 tonight. His runs either side of that run have been complete forgive runs, with no luck in either of them. I wonder if he's better off being given one last crack at them rather than finding the front and trying to hold on. At $13 I'm going to give him one more chance tonight. Happy to take on (8) All Best Friends.
(7) This Is Charisma E/W
$13
Interesting race and it's no surprise to see Purton and Moreira at the top of the market. (3) Rich And Lucky resumes from a break here, having had 11 weeks off since we last saw him in action. He's had two trials leading into his reappearance tonight and Purton was aboard in his most recent one, which he won cozily after leading. He should be able to take up a position on speed tonight and prove hard to beat from there. (11) Royal Racer is Moreira's mount and he takes over from Blake Shinn. He ran 4th last start over the track and distance. We saw Happy Warrior come out of that race and win his next start so the form has stood up. I thought he had his chance last start though and although he's drawn well in 3 here, and Moreira is a big plus, I'll side with the other horse. The value outside the two of them looks to be (10) Dionysis Colin at $9.00, who looks to get everything in his favour tonight, but we've said that before. He draws barrier 1 which is a big plus for him over this track and distance. Forgive his last start when he drew wide and was given plenty to do. He ran three straight placings over the 1800m here leading into last start and he's run a place in six of his last nine starts. He just can't ever seem to win though. He's probably a nailed on place bet tonight with the set up of the race, but he'll probably find one too good again! (1) Big Bang Bong drops into Class 4 for the first time.
We've got an odds-on favourite here in (4) Yee Cheong Pegasus, who does look very hard to beat, but he's been costly in recent starts. He's started $3.40, $2.20, $2.40 and $4.40 in four starts this season, but has only won one of them and run 2nd in the other three. With that said, he did reel off the fastest final 400m of the entire meeting last start, and was the only horse to break 22secs for his final sectional. The patience has run out with Chad Schofield and he's been replaced by Joao Moreira. The draw in 7 is slightly tricky given inside barriers are favoured on the B-course, but if Moreira has him close enough to strike on the corner, he's going to be awfully hard to hold out. Purton takes the ride on (8) Bright Kid, who makes his stable debut for Chris So. The fact they've put Zac on first start indicates they've got him set to win, and drawing barrier 1 is a huge help to his chances. (2) Good Shot won well over track and distance first up and draws an inside gate so gets his chance to back that up. Hard to see any roughies winning.
(4) Yee Cheong Pegasus
$1.95
Absolutely loving the price on offer for (9) Eptiwins! Happy to have a crack at the $5.00. This horse moved stables to David Hall and had his first start for his new trainer two starts ago at Sha Tin. He was well-supported and ran 2nd, before then being given a barrier trial at his last start, where he drew barrier 10, went back to the rail and ran home in the second-fastest final 400m of the race. He steps up in trip to 1650m now, draws barrier 1 which is a HUGE plus, and gets Purton replacing Matthew Poon. He gets everything in his favour to break through for his first win tonight. (6) Mission Smart looks a bit of value at $9.50. He's having his first start for Frankie Lor, having previously raced three times for another trainer. He ran well at his second start before having no luck last start when caught wide the trip. If he's improved under Frankie Lor, which he probably should, he should run well here at near double figure odds. We'll get a good guide through Rich And Lucky in Race 2, who won the trial he ran 3rd in recently. (3) Incanto Prepared is over the odds. Moreira jumps off to ride the current favourite, and is replaced by Chad Schofield. If you forgive his most recent start, where he was caught wide without cover, his form prior looks quite good. Just because Moreira's jumped off, his price is way over what it should be.
Value: (6) Mission Smart $9.50
Tough race. I think the big jockey change on (2) Momentum Galaxy could be the difference here. He's had absolutely no luck in his past three runs and Derek Leung gets replaced by Zac Purton tonight. He dropped into Class 4 last start, sat on the rail, then got dragged all the way back and held up the entire straight. This is effectively Purton going on a class-dropper which is a big thing to look for and with a clear run, he should be able to be right in the finish here. I think the clear value in the race is (7) Millennium Falcon. He ran a great race on debut, coming from last to be beaten 1.5L into 5th. Destine Jewellery ran 4th in that race and then came out and won his next start, and Millenium Falcon's finishing sectionals were far superior to those of Destine Jewellery. He draws wide again in barrier 11 which certainly isn't ideal but he's clearly got the ability and at $9.50 his odds are too good to turn down. Moreira replaces Purton on (1) Harmony N Home, who just did too much wrong and overraced last start. He draws barrier 1 over the 1200m which is a big advantage and if he races more generously, he's shown previously that he has the ability to win.
Value: (7) Millennium Falcon $9.50
(2) Momentum Galaxy
$6.00
Open race but once again Purton has a really strong chance here with (3) Be Ready. He ran 2nd last start, beaten a length by (2) Larson. He meets Larson 4kg better at the weights for that meeting so from the good draw, he really should be able to turn the tables. Purton rode Larson last start and jumps off to keep the ride on Be Ready tonight. Larson keeps on running very well so despite the wide draw (which isn't much of an issue over the 1000m), he can be competitive once again, but he might just be off too high a mark to win this. (8) Flying Genius has two wins from three starts over this track and distance and on recent form, he should be very hard to beat tonight. He's run 2nd in two of his past three starts, with the one he failed in being on the dirt, which he just didn't handle. He drew wide last start but he draws an inside gate tonight and that gives him his chance to win again.
Just about anything could win this, it's a complete lottery. There's about eight winning chances in the race so I'll just keep it to the one horse I'm having something on. (7) Such A Happiness goes on top at each way odds. He didn't get much luck early in the straight two starts ago over 1400m at Sha Tin, but he hit the line powerfully to run 3rd. He then ran 4th beaten less than a length over 1600m at Sha Tin last start, where he ran a 22.69sec final 400m, which was easily the quickest of the race. Karis Teetan replaces Derek Leung tonight in a positive jockey change and he draws well in barrier 6 with a winnable weight. Looks a good each way play at $8.00.
(7) Such A Happiness E/W
$8.00
I was with (3) Island Shine last start when he won narrowly here over the track and distance. Purton jumped on that night and replaced Alex Lai, and the big jockey change had an immediate effect. He drew barrier 10 that night and was able to overcome the wide draw, but he gets all the favours from barrier 1 tonight, which is a big plus over the 1200m on the B-course. Purton sticks with him and even though he cops a rise in the weights, that's offset a bit by the good draw. Think he should be going very close to winning again. Happy to oppose last-start winner (9) California Red who won in Class 4 and now steps up to Class 3. He draws the dreaded barrier 10, which has only had one winner from 88 runners over the 1200m on the B-course this season. He's a $5.00 chance and I can't get him that price.
Will side with Zac again here with (1) Dances With Dragon. He's won his past two starts which he's raced here at Happy Valley, and they were separated by a run on the dirt at Sha Tin. He and (8) Enrichment went to the line together last start over the 1800m, and they actually ran an identical final 400m. Dances With Dragon ran a fastest final 800m, but he also meets Enrichment 1.5kg worse off at the weights tonight. He draws well in barrier 7 though, while Enrichment draws wide in barrier 12. So it looks a very even contest between the two, but I'll lean to Dances With Dragon to win again.
(1) Dances With Dragon
$4.20
