Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for Happy Valley on Wednesday, March 25th.
Australian racing is hanging on by a thread, but Hong Kong racing remains ongoing. We have eight races under lights tonight, with racing on the "A" course.
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips below!
Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, March 25th
Best Bet: Race 6- (1) Dancing Fighter
Next Best Bet: Race 3 - (4) Winning Ways
Best Value: Race 8 - (3) Winning Method
The runner which immediately stands out is (12) Virtus Star who is just a flashing light of things to look for in Hong Kong. He's only placed once from 14 starts, which was last time out over this track and distance. Since then, he's had a stable change from David Hall to Frankie Lor. Zac Purton trialled him recently and he ran 3rd behind Champion's Way, who ran in the HK Derby last weekend. Zac actually jumps off the top weight and favourite (1) Galaxy Racer and instead sticks with this horse, who carries 53.5kg, which is as light as Zac ever rides. So there is an obvious reason behind all that; he wouldn't be riding that light nor jumping off Galaxy Racer if Virtus Star wasn't ready to win on his stable debut. The big negative is the barrier. Typically drawing inside barrier 4 is a big advantage over this track and distance but he's way out in 11. Hopefully Zac can work some magic and get him home.
Not much stands out here so my main play in the race will be (5) Pretty Bauhinia each way at $14. He's drawn barrier 2 tonight which is a big plus for him. He tends to race back in the field but the low barrier draw is a big advantage over this track and distance. Back in December he raced well here when beaten less than a length from a similar draw, so he's capable when things are in his favour. Once again Purton rides a horse that he's ridden in a recent trial and that's (9) Murray's Partners for trainer Dennis Yip. He actually rode him last start at Sha Tin but this is an easier race. The winner of the race he contested last start came out and won again on Sunday. Purton has a 37% strike rate when riding for Yip so when he goes on it's generally for a good sign. I reckon he'll fire him out from the wide gate to sit outside the leader as that's when his best performance in recent starts came from. Those are the two for me.
Also backing: (9) Murray's Partners
For a horse called (4) Winning Ways he sure doesn't win out of turn, but he goes on top here. He hit the line strongly two starts back to get his head in front for just the third time in his career, and his run last start was very brave after being caught wide without cover throughout. He gets a plum draw in barrier 5 today and this race is no harder so with even luck he looks the most likely winner. (9) Oversubscribed gets Moreira back on board tonight after he jumped off last start. He draws awkwardly in barrier 10 but that will allow him to get to the outside and hit the line.
Plenty of depth to this race with about six winning chances. (4) Green Dispatch goes on top after an encouraging run for 3rd last start, which was his first run for 25 weeks. His record shows that he typically improves sharply second up, with three wins from five starts. The draw is a bit tricky but if Shinn can slot him in somewhere, I think he'll be right in the finish and $6.00 is a price I have to take. (6) Methane finished ahead of Green Dispatch by 0.75L last start, but he gives him a 1kg weight swing tonight and as aforementioned, Green Dispatch was only first up. Their price discrepency is too big. (3) Universal Go Go is always an each way chance in these sorts of races when he gets a good draw, which he gets tonight. Purton jumps on (2) Roman Impero, again for Dennis Yip who he combines with well. (8) Melbourne Hall isn't without a hope.
(4) Green Dispatch E/W
$6.00
This is the battle of the non-winners with (2) Mehboob and (6) Super Lucky. Between them, they've had 38 starts for three wins and 13 placings. One comes up $3.00 and the other is $4.00. They have absolutely no reason not to be very competitive tonight from barriers 1 and 6 respectively, but they certainly have had their chances! I think the $6.00 on offer for both (3) Shanghai Master and (10) Super Alliances are good bets. Shanghai Master clocked the fastest final 400m when finishing 3rd last start. He drew wide in barrier 12 on that occasion and although he's drawn wide again in barrier 10 tonight, I think he's ready to win. Super Alliances has had just six career starts so is still largely unexposed. He ran 2nd in consecutive starts over this track and distance before failing last start when pulling up lame. Notably, Moreira isn't on tonight and Chad Schofield instead gets the ride, which is interesting given Moreira doesn't have a ride in the race. In any case, he draws well and if he's at his best, he will go very close. Shanghai Master and Super Alliances for me.
Also backing: (10) Super Alliances $6.00
(3) Shanghai Master
$6.00
Two horse race. (1) Dancing Fighter is yet to miss the top two from six career starts. He resumes from a spell tonight and his trial leading into this was very good. He draws wide in barrier 10 and carries top weight first up, so he certainly will need to be pretty good to win, but I think he's capable of measuring up in better races than this so I would expect him to win with even luck. (5) Shouson draws barrier 1 and that's the only reason he comes into consideration. He wasn't beaten far last start and that was after covering some ground so the inside draw gives him his chance to beat the favourite tonight, especially with Dancing Fighter drawn wide.
(1) Dancing Fighter
$2.20
Competitive race. (7) Naboo Star was a horror watch last start when badly held up from the 200m mark. He was only beaten 1.3L on the line and that was without seeing any daylight. Prior to that he'd won two of his past three starts at the track and distance. The challenge tonight is the barrier draw. His past three starts, he's started from 1, 1 and 2. Tonight he starts from 10, but he's a horse that tends to get back anyway so I'm not too concerned. He ran a final 400m of 22.52sec when he won two starts ago and if he was to be within striking distance and run that sort of time again, he'd win. (3) Cinquante Cinq is the obvious danger. He's placed in six of his seven starts at the track and distance and Moreira jumps back on tonight after Chadwick was on him last start. When Moreira rode him two starts ago he won decisively.
Moreira and Purton once again dominate the market but I think (3) Winning Method is a decent each way bet here. He won over track and distance back in December beating Snap Fit and Shining Ace. He's had excuses in every run since. Last time out he was crowded after the start and lost ground, then came wide in the straight and rattled off a 22.89sec final sectional, clearly the fastest of the race. In fact, he was the only horse to break 23 seconds, and he did it comfortably. Jockey change tonight with Chadwick taking over from Dylan Mo. Draws well in barrier 5 and hopefully with a bit of luck he isn't too far off them at the top of the straight. If he can be within range and produce that finish, he'll sail home over the top. Green Reign gets the gun draw and went close from a wide draw last start, while (7) Beauty Spark just continues to find a couple better than him.
(3) Winning Method E/W
$7.00
