Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Happy Valley on Wednesday, April 29th.
We're back on the A-course (rail true) for a nine-race card tonight, and you can find our preview and best bets for the meeting below!
Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, April 29th
Best Bet: Race 7 - (1) Shining Gem
We start the night with a Class 4 2200m race and I'm pretty keen on the favourite (7) Good Days to get the job done here, but he is only a winner of three races from 37 starts. One of those three wins was over this track and distance and he comes into this having put in two good runs at Sha Tin. Last start we backed him at double figure odds, he settled at the back from the wide draw and worked home in 22.60sec for his final 400m to get within 0.5L of the winner. It was an enormous run. Zac Purton takes over the ride tonight and gets a soft draw in barrier 3. Hopefully he isn't too far off them on the corner and can get home over the top. (9) Bullish Glory and (6) Exaltation finished alongside each other behind Above last start, both beaten 6.5L (Above won by 6L). Both get positive jockey changes tonight with Teetan on Bullish Glory and Moreira on Exaltation. Bullish Glory ran his final two sectionals in 24.33 and 24.24 in that race, while Exaltation ran 24.49 and 24.75. So Bullish Glory ran home a touch better, and he does draw the inside gate here. With that said, I'm always wary of Tony Cruz runners in these sorts of staying races and Moreira going on for him is a pretty big lead. Both have good claims. (4) Gala Night next best.
(2) Victorious Seeker is the favourite here so I'm pretty keen to bet, because he's a bit of a nonnie. He's placed in his past five starts, but he's had his chances to win and hasn't. I don't mind the chances of (3) Enjoyable Success tonight. He actually finished 0.5L ahead of Victorious Seeker three starts ago over this track and distance, and he meets him 1.5kg better off at the weights tonight. He then stepped up to Class 4 company and wasn't disgraced, but he's back down into Class 5 tonight. He's finished in the top two in three of his four starts at the track and distance and he's drawn well in barrier 3. He's also got the blinkers back on tonight. (12) Virtus Star ran well on his stable debut two starts back when finishing 2nd, before a fairly weak effort last start. They've drawn wide in both those runs and after going back in the first one, they went forward and sat outside the leader last start. He took the lead early in the straight but was swamped to fnish 7th. Purton sticks with him, he finally draws a gate, so he'll do no work early, and he also gets a few key gear changes with the cheekpieces and tongue tie on for the first time. I just don't know how good that form is so I'll let him go around but he really gets his chance with that draw tonight. (7) Fortune Patrol and (10) Winners Brother next.
(3) Enjoyable Success
$5.00
Pretty keen on (2) Happy Warrior here, who gets a few major ticks tonight. He's been running really well of late, with consecutive placings over this track and distance. He draws the inside gate tonight, which is a premium over this distance on the A-course. 19% of all winners over 1650m on the A-course at Happy Valley this season have started from barrier 1. He also gets Zac Purton back aboard, replacing Neil Callan. He's placed in nine of his 13 starts over the track and distance and with that gate and Zac on tonight, he should be right in the finish. The slight worry is he's only won twice from 28 starts. The horse that beat him last start was (5) Focus who he meets again tonight. There was about a length separating them but Happy Warrior ran quite clearly the better final splits and he gets a 2kg swing in his favour tonight, as well as the better draw. With that said, barrier 4 is also a really good draw so Focus can measure up once again. (6) Everyone's Elite has placed in all six starts this preparation, including six consecutive 2nd placings, five of which were at this track and distance. Moreira sticks with him tonight but he's proving costly and this is no easier for him. (11) Doctors Delight and (12) Seize The Spirit aren't hopeless down in the weights.
This race is a headache. (3) Colonel started $1.50 when he ran 4th at Sha Tin last start. It was a very plain effort but this is probably an easier race and you have to respect the fact he started so short in that race. Purton sticks with him, which you don't often see when horses under perform for him. The tongue tie goes on for the first time tonight. He's drawn awkward in 10 but if you backed him at $1.50 last start, you probably have to back him again at $5.50 here. (6) Super Alliances is knocking on the door. He was beaten a short-half-head here last start, where he led all race bar the winning post. Notably, Moreira jumps off tonight and elects to stick with (7) Simply Fluke, who he rode to victory last start. He drew barrier 12 in that race and fired across to lead, and he draws the same gate tonight, so he'll probably look to do the same. Outside of those, there's a few at blowout odds that could improve out of sight without surprising. (4) Athena ($67) ran last on debut eight weeks ago, but he draws the inside gate tonight and his recent trial wasn't all that bad. (5) Management Supreme ($34) also finished down the field on debut, but he drew barrier 12 on that occasion and comes up with barrier 2 tonight. Vincent Ho stays aboard for trainer Francis Lui and an improved showing should be expected. (8) Resolute ($16) led all the way to win his recent trial quite nicely, but it was on the dirt. He might well go forward from barrier 9 as well with the blinkers applied for the first time. (11) Lucky Missile ($19) is another to have trialled relatively nicely recently, coming from back in the field to work home nicely along the inside.
(5) Sky Show finished 2L off the winner on debut at Sha Tin five weeks back. His run was a bit strange. He was green early in the straight, then ran home OK once he was clear, but seemingly got very tired in the last 50m, because the horses he went past half way down the straight came back to basically cross the line alongside him. He's been back to the trials since then and was impressive, winning his heat by 5L. Purton sticks with him and Jimmy Ting has a 21% strike rate with his runners over 1200m at Happy Valley. He draws awkward in 10 but if he's improved, as it looks he has, then he should be hard to beat. (1) Diamond Rhyme returns from a suspensory injury and has had 41 weeks off. He was given a really quiet trial leading into this and the concern is his fitness levels, but I thought he trialled quite well and the inside draw gives him all the favours. (6) Hero Star and (7) Wood On Fire have claims.
Competitive race with several chances. (6) Flash Famous gets barrier 2 tonight and that could make all the difference. He put together back-to-back wins before running 2nd here last time out. He drew barrier 9 on that night, but inside barriers are premium especially on the A-course over 1650m, so barrier 2 is a big plus. (2) Jolly Honour finished 9th last start but you can basically forget he went around. He and another runner almost got put through the running rail at the 300m mark. Prior to that his form was good, including a win at the track and distance. On that form $8.00 looks a silly price here. (3) Smart Patch was given the most obvious barrier trial ever last start. Chad Schofield was replaced by Alex Lai, he drew barrier 1, went back to last three-wide with cover and just worked home. We've seen him positioned up on speed before so that was clearly just a run to keep him ticking over. Prior to that he ran 2nd to Lakeshore Eagle, who has since come out and won again. His only prior start at this track and distance was a win and all he has to do is overcome barrier 10 tonight with Schofield back in the saddle. (8) Wind Glider should be aided by barrier 1, while (10) Dynamic Eagle wasn't bad first up, but his trial since was pretty ordinary. I do think Flash Famous is the horse to beat here but at the prices I'm going to be backing Smart Patch and Jolly Honour.
Value: (2) Jolly Honour $8.00
(1) Shining Gem finds a nice race here. He ran the fastest final 400m and 800m of the race last start when 2nd to Winning Method over this track and distance. Prior to that he ran 5th where he once again ran the fastest final 400m, in fact he was the only horse in the race to break 22secs for his final sectional. He draws barrier 1 tonight as opposed to barrier 12, which is what he's drawn in his past two starts, and if he repeats those performances he should be winning this. Moreira jumps off two other horses in the race to ride (7) Wind N Grass for John Size. Last time he rode him he finished 3rd, beaten less than a length here, so expect him to go close. Purton picks up the ride on (9) Diamond Brilliant and rides him at 120lbs, which is as light as he gets. Moreira's been riding him lately and he's been in the placings without being able to win. He draws really well in barrier 2 and should be right in the finish again, but he's had a few chances now.
Basically only two horses I'm keen on here. (1) Cinquante Cinq started $2.30 last start and found all sorts of trouble early in the straight before getting out when the race was all over. He actually drops a kg in the weights and Moreira is replaced by Purton. He draws well in barrier 5 and if he can show the form he had leading into that last start, he'll be the one to beat. I think the danger and the value is (11) Owner's Star toward the bottom of the weights. He's been good in all three starts this prep. First up he ran 6th but ran home nicely from back in the field, and he's run 2nd in his past two starts. He drops back to 1650m and does go up a touch in the weights but he's drawn an ideal gate in 2 and just has to hold his form to be right in the finish here. A horse that could be a big improver tonight is (7) Red Elysees, who was beaten 23L last start on the dirt at Sha Tin, but they reported he wasn't comfortable on the surface. Prior to that his form was decent on the grass so from the good draw he can be included at $13.
Value: (11) Owner's Star $6.50
(1) Californiadeepshot draws wide in 11 here but he looks to find a winnable race on his way up to Class 2. He was beaten a length last start by (7) Beauty Spark who had an 8kg pull in the weights, but he gets a 2kg swing in his favour tonight and with any luck from the gate I think he'll be going very close. Beauty Spark is hard to fault, he's very consistent and he broke through for a deserved win last start after five consecutive 3rd placings. He rises in weight tonight which is going to make it hard for him to win again, but he's sure to be around the mark like he always is. (5) Shouson is another that's been around the mark and he was only just behind Californiadeepshot last time out, but he had the run of the race and was still passed fair and square. He draws well again tonight but he meets Californiadeepshot at the same weight as last start and I just think the other horse is better. (9) Victory Power is a place chance at odds. He struggles to win, with just one victory in 27 starts. (12) Good For You draws the inside gate which should aid his chances.
(1) Californiadeepshot
$4.00
