Tonight sees the running of the hugely popular 2016 International Jockeys' Championship at Happy Valley in Hong Kong, which is the entree ahead of the main course at Sha Tin on Sunday.
We have racing betting tips for all 9 races on the program, as well as a preview and betting tips for the jockey challenge itself - which comprises races 4,5,7 and 8.
Happy Valley Racing Tips
Race 1 - Vivacious Winner EW
Race 2 - E-Super
Race 3 - Master Viking EW
Race 4 - Powermax
Race 5 - Giant Turtle
Race 6 - Wonderful Fighter
Race 7 - Works Of Art
Race 8 - Vara Pearl
Race 9 - Winnie's Honey
2016 International Jockeys' Championship Preview
12 jockeys from all over the will represent their countries, with some of the biggest names in the world set to compete: Hugh Bowman (Australia), Mickael Barzalona (France), Mirco Demuro (Italy), Florent Geroux (USA), Gavin Lerena (South Africa), Ryan Moore (UK), Pat Smullen (Ireland), Keita Tosaki (Japan), and Hong Kong will be represented by Joao Moreira, Zac Purton, Douglas Whyte and Derek Leung.
The IJC races are races 4, 5, 7 and 8. Each jockey earns 12 points for a win, six points for running 2nd, and four points for finishing 3rd. Obviously, to win the IJC you basically need to win at least one of the races and hold another strong place chance or two.
Let's assess each of the IJC races briefly and see which jockeys hold the strongest hands.
Race 4
Obviously the two standout chances here are Premiere for Hugh Bowman and Powermax for Pat Smullen. I've got Powermax on top after a solid debut, which isn't always the case for Australian horses imported into Hong Kong. He drew barrier 11 that day so from barrier 1 should settle much closer and be hard to beat. Premiere has had his chance in recent starts but with the aid of Bowman and a good draw, he has every chance to break through. St Yazin is a good chance to make it back-to-back wins with Joao Moreira aboard. He's won two of his past three and will be the one charging home from the back half of the field. Moreira is the best judge of pace in HK so he has winning claims. Ray Of Gold is my 4th selection for Mickael Barzalona after a solid first up run.
Smullen and Bowman look likeliest to earn maximum points but Moreira can also win. Barzalona with a rough chance.
Race 5
This is a difficult race to work out and a number of jockeys could score here. After watching a few replays and looking at some sectional times, I think Giant Turtle deserves to be favourite and gives Ryan Moore a great chance of scoring 12 points here. He won a trial leading into the new season, and has run consecutive 2nds since. Last start he was three-wide the trip and still stuck on for 2nd. From barrier 2 he will have no such trouble tonight. Happy And Healthy ran 3rd last start behind Giant Turtle, but had a much easier run. He still ran home nicely and draws well again in 5 so he is a good chance for reigning champion Gavin Lerena to score points. Don't rule out True Comment for Zac Purton; he drawsbarrier 4 which is clearly the most successful barrier over the 1650m on the B course at Happy Valley. Good Choice at the top of the weights is an each-way chance for Joao Moreira, while Florent Geroux can earn some points aboard Sparkling Sword.
Moore holds the best chance here but no surprise to see either Lerena or Purton pick up maximum points. Another rough chance for Moreira too.
Race 7
This is Florent Geroux's best chance with Works Of Art, who looks one of the better bets on the card to my eye. He has continued to progress with each start, which culminated with a strong win last start over this track and distance. He rises 4.5kg, which is a significant rise, but he won very comfortably and can do so again. He beat Kiram by 2L on that occasion, and Kiram stays at the same weight so the 4.5kg swing in his favour should see him in the finish to give Bowman another chance of picking up points. Mutual Joy at the bottom of the weights gives Mirco Demuro a reasonable chance; he won in Class 5 over track and distance two starts ago before finishing a respectable 4th in this class last start. Importantly, he draws barrier 1 here so will get a great run and down to 52.5kg gives him a chance to score. Great Toplight is a rough chance for Zac Purton, and Graceful Kingdom should be thereabouts for Lerena.
Expect Geroux to pick up 12 points here, but Bowman holds another good chance to score. Demuro could get on the board, while Purton has another chance to pick up place points.
Race 8
Another really strong chance for Moore here with Beauty Prince, who has only been very narrowly beaten over this track and distance at his past two starts. From barrier 6 he will get a nice run in midfield and gives Moore another top chance of scoring points. I'm with one at a bit of value in this race which is Vara Pearl for Zac Purton, and I think this is his best chance of scoring 12 points in the IJC races. He finished right alongside Beauty Prince last start and gets a kilogram in his favour tonight. He's finished really strongly in his past two starts and with Purton on board he is a strong chance of winning this at the $9 mark. Super Fluke holds a place chance for Bowman from barrier 4, while Pearl Warm Warm can get back into the money from barrier 2 for Mickael Barzalona.
Best chances lie with Moore and Purton here, but Bowman could get a few points with Super Fluke. Rough chance for Barzalona.
2016 IJC Summary
I think Ryan Moore ($4.40) holds the strongest hand here with two very strong winning chances. If he wins with both he will have this series wrapped up. If he wins one and places with another it may be enough to see him win as well, and there's a good chance that of that happening. Pat Smullen ($8.00) is a good chance of picking up maximum points in Race 4, and if he does it could be enough to see him win because he has two more last-start winners among his other rides. Zac Purton ($26.00) holds one strong winning chance in Vara Pearl and another couple of rough place chances, so he looks well over the odds at $26 with Sportsbet. Hugh Bowman ($4.40) has a number of decent chances, as does Florent Geroux ($6.00).
I think Moore will be the winner, and I'll be backing him accordingly, and I think Purton is hugely over the odds at $26 (currently $13 in HK). I'll be saving on Florent Geroux at $6.00 and taking on Hugh Bowman. This is always an incredible spectacle and I urge everyone to tune in - it's not often you have so many of the world's best riders competing against each other and the whole event is second to none. Good luck!
Tip: Ryan Moore to win the IJC
+ Zac Purton the value play + saver on Florent Geroux
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
