A pivotal matchup in Round 21 will see Geelong take on Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday night. Both sides are wounded and without key players, which only adds to the intrigue. We preview the match and bring you our best bets here.
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AFL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
Geelong vs Port Adelaide
Saturday 7:25pm AEST, August 5th, GMHBA Stadium
The reigning premiers take on one of this season’s premiership contenders in Round 21, with Geelong welcoming Port Adelaide to GMHBA Stadium on Saturday night. For the Cats, a win will see them keep their finals hopes alive, while for the Power, they need to continue to tick over the win column to give themselves the best chance of securing a top two finish.
Every game is now a must-win for the Cats, especially after suffering a surprise loss to the Dockers last weekend. At home and priced as short as $1.04 at some bookmakers, the Cats were simply outplayed in alarming fashion.
Adding salt to their wounds, star players Tom Hawks and Mark Blicavs both injured their hamstrings in last weekend’s loss and will be unable to suit up for at least the next couple of weeks.
Port Adelaide have also made their goal of finishing in the top two a lot more difficult on the back of their recent form. After having their 13-game win streak snapped against the Blues, the Power have now lost three straight matches. The Power are now only one match ahead of the Lions in third and would fall behind them if both teams finish the season on equal points due to their inferior percentage.
The Power are dealing with injury problems themselves and will be without a number of members from their usual best 22 on Saturday night. Aliir Aliir and Lachie Jones have both been ruled out due to concussion protocols, while Charlie Dixon (injury) and Kane Farrell (illness) have both been withdrawn from the side despite initially being selected to play.
With Hawkins missing up forward for the Cats and Dixon the Power, both clubs will need to tweak their forward line structure for this encounter. With that in mind, coupled with the fact that 11 of the past 14 meetings between these sides have gone under the total points line, I believe we could be in for a bit of a slog.
The current points line of 164.5 just looks too high with all things considered, and I’m happy to back the unders here for a couple of units as a result.
Under 164.5 Points
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Gary Rohan 2+ Goals – He got a hold of the Power last time with a flurry of goals in the first quarter. With Aliir also out for the Power, I think Rohan can find success in the air again in this matchup.
Mitch Duncan 20+ Disposals – He’s had 20+ disposals in nine straight matches.
Patrick Dangerfield 20+ Disposals – With Blicavs out, the Cats will need Danger’s big body in the midfield. I’m expecting a captain’s performance from him.
Ollie Wines 20+ Disposals – This will be a heavily contested game and that suits Wines. I expect him to improve his form in this one.
SGM Odds: $5.50 at BoomBet
