Super Saturday in AFL Round 22 begins with Geelong vs Fremantle at GMHBA Stadium. The Cats are purring and the Dockers are in freefall, which makes for a one-sided contest on paper. We look to find some value in the betting markets in our match preview below.
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AFL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Geelong vs Fremantle
Saturday 1:45pm AEST, July 29th, GMHBA Stadium
GMHBA Stadium has been a fortress for Geelong once again this season and this weekend it’ll be Fremantle’s turn to pay a visit. Their Round 22 clash will get underway at 1:45pm (AEST) in front of rejuvenated and optimistic Cats crowd.
Geelong’s four-game unbeaten streak may have come to an end in a loss against Brisbane last weekend, but they certainly didn’t lose any believers. After getting off to a slow start, they came home with a wet sail and threatened to steal the victory late in the fourth quarter.
The downside from last weekend’s brave performance is that the Cats have now failed to win in each of their last four trips interstate. However, that won’t worry them this weekend when they play at home where they have a 5-1 record in 2023.
Fremantle’s finals hopes have been obliterated after losing four in a row and six of their last seven matches. Aside from a strong second half against the Bombers in Round 15, the Dockers have been nothing short of putrid since their midseason bye.
The warning signs were there from the beginning for the Dockers. They lost five of their first seven matches this season despite having one of the more favourable draws. And to add further salt into their wounds, gun ruckman Sean Darcy has been ruled out for the remainder of the season.
It’s clear the Cats have the edge in this Round 22 matchup and the line has been set at 46.5 as a result. That’s a number that I’d prefer not to take on, as the Cats could easily get out to a 10 goal lead and take the foot off the gas and ultimately fail to cover.
Instead, I’m keen to take the unders in the total points market, as the current total of 169.5 just seems too high. Aside from their 93 points scored against the Bombers in Round 15, the Dockers have failed to score more than 76 points in each of their last six outings. And considering the Cats have kept their last three opponents at this ground to 45, 63, and 64 points, it’s hard to see the Dockers putting up a big score here.
Yes, the Cats could go nuts and put 120+ on the board, but even then, there’s no guarantee this one hits 170+ combined points.
Under 169.5 Points
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Geelong 25+ – It’s hard to see a reason why the Cats won’t win this comfortably. Happy to include them to win by 25+ points.
Luke Ryan 25+ Disposals – Will be extremely busy all day and regularly takes the team’s kickouts. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t reach this mark.
Tyson Stengle 2+ Goals – The Dockers small defenders aren’t any good and that bodes well for Stengle. I expect him to be hitting the scoreboard here.
SGM Odds: $5.25 at BoomBet
