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2024 AFL Round 19 Preview & Betting Tips
Fremantle vs Melbourne
Sunday 3:20pm AEST, 21st July, Optus Stadium
Another eight point game presents itself in the dramatic 2024 AFL season, with fifth placed Fremantle two points clear of eighth placed Melbourne heading into Round 19. Fremantle fell out of the top eight after a disappointing defeat against Hawthorn in Launceston, after being up by nine points at three quarter time.
The Dockers conceded five goals to one in the fourth quarter in a loss that could prove costly given the logjam of teams between 2nd and 13th on the ladder.
Melbourne produced a gritty performance in the rain to knock off Essendon, despite not having captain Max Gawn. The Demons have won three of their last four games to keep their finals hopes alive, and a win over Fremantle would have them entrenched in the eight by the end of the weekend.
This game presents a battle of defensive powerhouses with Fremantle ranking as the second best defence in the competition, while the Demons are ranked third. Both teams do like to possess the football, so whoever can win the battle around stoppages will go a long way towards helping their side win.
Fremantle are ranked second in the league for clearances, fourth for disposals and fourth for marks. When they can get control at the stoppages, they’re excellent at maintaining possession to control the game. Their work with the ball also helps their defence, that has conceded only 74 points per game this season, and have only conceded 100 points once since Round 7.
The battle of Max Gawn against Sean Darcy and Luke Jackson will be crucial to the outcome of this match, when these sides last met in Round 12 the Dockers were able to nullify Gawn’s influence en route to a massive victory.
Match Prediction: Given the strength of both backlines and how they move the ball in attack, this will likely be a dour, low scoring affair that will come down to who can win clearances and be more efficient in front of goal.
Nine of Fremantle’s games this season have been decided by 24 points or less, while Melbourne have also played in nine games decided by 24 points or less. Fremantle should win this game, however given how Melbourne will play, it will likely be a close outcome.
Either Team By Less Than 24.5 Points
$1.88 (1 Unit)
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Caleb Serong 25+ Disposals: Serong will be desperate to bounce back after being held to just 22 disposals against Hawthorn. Serong has recorded 27, 26 and 25 disposals in his last three games against Melbourne, and has recorded at least 25 disposals in 15 out of 17 games in 2024.
Trent Rivers 25+ Disposals: Trent Rivers has stepped in to fill a midfield hole in the absence of Christian Petracca, and is flourishing. After attending a centre bounce in only one of the first 13 games this season, Rivers has CBA percentages of 80%, 69%, 83% and 78% over the last month. The increased role has seen Rivers average 25 disposals per game over the last month, and record 29 disposals in each of his last two games.
Jacob Van Rooyen Anytime Goalscorer: Van Rooyen played largely in the ruck last week with Max Gawn out, but with the Melbourne skipper back Van Rooyen will be set to continue his excellent form. Before last week Van Rooyen had a goal in 9 of his last 10 games.
