Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Mackinnon Stakes Day at Flemington on Saturday, November 10th.
The final day of the Flemington carnival is headlined by two Group 1’s – the VRC Sprint Classic and the Mackinnon Stakes. The track has held up incredibly well all week and will be in the Good 4 range, while the rail moves out to the 8m position.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race on the card below.
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 8 Blair House
Best Value Bet: Race 4 Ulmann
RACE 1
Keen to stick with Manuel here, who backed up a solid win at Caulfield two starts ago with a brave 2nd to Fifty Stars on Melbourne Cup day. He carried 60kg on both of those occasions and drops in weight today to 57.5kg. Kerrin McEvoy sticks with him, he’s drawn barrier 1 and so long as he handles the quick back-up, he should take some running down. Eshtiraak brings some solid form. He ran 2nd to Ringerdingding two starts back before winning over the mile at Bendigo last time out. He’s got a poor record at this track but he’s returned a better horse this preparation and draws softly in barrier 3. Balcazaar could be a blowout at $34. He’s had two duck-eggs from two starts this prep but he rarely does anything in his first couple of runs back. He also had zero luck last start. Now gets up to his best distance of 1600m and Craig Williams is a noticeable jockey booking. Look for sharp improvement. Loyalty Man can also improve third up at the mile, while Al Passem will be right up on speed and will run bravely as he has done all prep.
RACE 2
Great little battle we have here between Lucky For All and Danon Roman, who ran the quinella three weeks ago at Caulfield over this distance. Lucky For All got his head in front on that occasion, winning by 0.3L, but Danon Roman drops from 60kg to 54.5kg today and gets a 2.5kg weight swing on Lucky For All as a result. James McDonald keeps the ride and he should get a gun run from barrier 1. Lucky For All goes from Ben Allen to John Allen and will be further back in the run from barrier 7. I think he’s the one still with plenty of upside and if he gets his manners right in the home straight, he can go to another level. He’s the one I’m sticking with. Weir was pretty bullish that Pleasuring could really improve with the blinkers going on for the first time. 54kg, barrier 4 and Damian Lane are all positives. She’s had four runs back now and should be hitting the line hard.
Value: Pleasuring $10 Bet365
RACE 3
Sticking with Yulong January here, who I was keen on last week before he was scratched. He won his first three starts before splitting Ranier and Wild Planet last time out. He was pressured by a lose horse on that occasion and still fought on to be beaten by a nose and Ranier and Wild Planet have since come out and run the quinella in their next starts. Should find the front again from barrier 3 and be tough to catch. Ringerdingding was disappointing in that same race mentioned above two starts ago, but bounced back with a huge run at Moonee Valley last start. He has the tongue tie applied to go with the blinkers they put on last start. He’s drawn poorly in barrier 12 so will be a long way back but he’ll get his chance with the long straight. No Emotion is another Weir horse with Damian Lane on. He’s won his past two at Ballarat and Bendigo and now gets his chance in town. I’d probably have something on at the $17. Long Leaf drops heavily in grade after finishing midfield in the Coolmoore Stud Stakes. Back up to 1400m and although he has the weight to carry, I’d expect him to run well.
Value: No More Emotion $12 BetEasy
RACE 4
Widgee Turf finds another winnable race and although he’s been up forever, he just continues to race well and continues to be placed well. He was good behind Iconoclasm at Moonee Valley last start with 60kg. Has a good record at this track and distance. Dreamforce has had two runs back from a spell now and gets his chance. He won third up last prep and the wide barrier is no issue as he’ll go forward. I think he’s already had his chance this prep though and needs to improve to win in my opinion. Interestingly, Mark Zahra jumps off Widgee Turf to ride Ulmann for Darren Weir, who gave that horse a pretty decent push. He was given a nice little barrier trial first up – he had little luck and only got out late. He’s got a decent second up record and is a dual winner at the track and distance. Zahra jumping off the favourite to ride a $12 chance is definitely a good lead. Age Of Fire is another Weir horse and could be the blowout at $34. He had no luck in his first start for the stable, held up until the final 100m. He’ll get back again from barrier 14 but is better suited second up at 1400m. He’s a Group 1 winner in New Zealand and certainly isn’t hopeless in this.
RACE 5
Group 3 Queen Elizabeth for the stayers over 2600m here, which means it could be a lottery. Libran finds a suitable race. He’s run well most of the prep and hasn’t had much luck in a couple of those. He’s won over this distance previously in Sydney and draws well with Ryan Moore on board. He’s just struggling to get another win to his name though. Gallic Chieftain is Darren Weir’s best each way chance of the day, according to the trainer. He’s another that has run well all prep but has just struggled to get his head in front. He gets a big drop in grade and was only beaten 2.5L by A Prince Of Arran last start. I find it very interesting that Damian Lane (who has ridden Gallic Chieftain in three of his last four starts) jumps off him to ride the stablemate Megablast at double figure odds. He is fourth up now and didn’t get a lot of luck last start. The obvious query for him is his record on Good ground. He’s only placed once from nine starts on a firm deck but if the track was to be soft, he’d be right in this. He won by 3L last prep when he was fourth up at 2400m. Jaameh was good when 3rd behind A Prince Of Arran last Saturday. This is an easier race and his record at Flemington is very good. He goes on top and should be really competitive provided he handles the quick back-up. Midterm gets blinkers on and has been well backed in early markets with McDonald on board, while Kerrin McEvoy takes over on Lord Fandango who is working his way towards another win. Not a big betting race given the number of chances.
RACE 6
Wide open Matriarch Stakes. Savvy Coup was well taken care of in the Cox Plate as expected but she was a dominant winner of a Group 1 back in New Zealand prior to that and she’d be competitive here with a repeat performance. Kenedna was poor last start, as the market predicted she would be pre-race, but she’s now stepping up to 2000m where I think she’ll be much more competitive. I’m not dropping off just yet. Sheezdashing should have won more races than she has but her racing pattern often sees her flashing late or getting a bit unlucky. The blinkers come off after two ordinary performances and she’s certainly got the ability to win this if she finds her best. Temple Of Bel is another that often charges home late from the back of the field. That’s exactly what she’s done in her past two starts and put the writing on the wall that she’s ready to win again. Barrier 14 will see her get a long way back though, so I think she’s found her right price. Aqua D’Ivina has had seven career starts and has never finished outside the top two. She’s won her past two starts in Sydney and Jason Collett makes the trip over for just the one ride in Melbourne. Our Libretto has won four races from six career starts and is undefeated since moving to Australia. This is undoubtedly her toughest test to date but she’s got a huge finish on her and I get the impression the Flemington track is much to her liking. Luvaluva the blowout at big odds. Likely to have something on Kenedna ($10), Aqua D’Ivina ($8.50), Our Libretto ($9.00) and possibly a nickel on Luvaluva ($26).
Also backing: Our LIbretto $9.00 / Kenedna $10
RACE 7
Wow, what a line up! Redzel is looking to do exactly what he did last year when following up his win in The Everest with victory in this same race. He’ll jump straight to the front and try to find the outside rail and if he does, they’ll have a tough time catching him. Santa Ana Lane was disappointing in The Everest but the wet ground was possibly his excuse. Before that he was going enormous and back on firmer ground today should see sharp improvement. His jumpout at Flemington recently was absolutely outstanding. He just has to overcome his poor record at Flemington but he’s in career best form and hasn’t raced down the straight for quite some time. Redkirk Warrior returns for the first time this Spring and for the first time since failing overseas. He’s got a tremendous first up record and an even better record at this track and distance. My query is his jumpout recently was pretty average and it’s always a worry with these horses returning from overseas trips. Pierata absolutely monstered them in Sydney in the Everest consolation last start. As good as that was, this is a hugely competitive race and this is his first time going down the straight. I think he’s short enough in the market. Kementari has had a preparation to forget, with bad luck, bad rides and no wins to show for it. It worries me that they just keep fronting up in these races in the hope that he’ll snare one. That’s not to say he can’t win this (he can!); he ran the quickest final sectionals in the Manikato. I’ll be taking him on though. US Navy Flag might finally be ready to do something. He hated the wet ground in The Everest and then went to the line untested after blowing the start at Moonee Valley. If he jumps here, he’ll take some beating. He won the July Cup in the UK, which is the same race Redkirk Warrior failed in. He’s got straight track form and draws to get the right run out wide. I won’t be losing on him. Another horse I won’t be losing on is Spright. She is going absolutely enormous! Kementari was the only horse to run better final sectionals than her in the Manikato last start and he is a quarter of her price. She’s also a winner down the straight before. Hard race to be confident in. I’ll likely be having something on Redzel ($4.00), Santa Ana Lane ($11), US Navy Flag ($14) and possibly Spright ($31). Or I might just watch!
Value: US Navy Flag $13 BetEasy
RACE 8
The Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes looks at the mercy of favourite Blair House. He blew the start on his Australian debut in the Underwood Stakes, where he was eventually beaten 2.6L by Homesman. I think he would have gone very close in that had he not started so poorly, and he proved he probably would have when he went head-to-head with Benbatl down the straight in the Caulfield Stakes. Benbatl then obviously ran 2nd in the Cox Plate. Blair House won by nearly 3L third up in Dubai last prep and from the good draw, he basically just needs to run to what he has so far in Australia to be winning this. Latrobe is the Irish Derby winner who has his first start in Australia. The Williams camp elected against running him first up in the Melbourne Cup as he hadn’t got enough miles in the legs apparently, so they targeted him towards this race over the shorter trip. All of his European form ties in nicely to what we’ve seen from some other Europeans in Australia. He beat Rostropovich in the Derby, who then ran well in the Cup, and he also beat home Weekender at his most recent start, who can be tied into the likes of Muntahaa, Magic Circle and Marmelo. Latrobe was flogged by Benbatl just two starts ago over 2100m so you’d have to say on that, Blair House is the one to be with here. But Latrobe still absolutely terrifies me being from this stable. Shillelagh won the Empire Rose Stakes in almost arrogant fashion last Saturday. She steps up to 2000m for the first time today, she takes on the boys and she’s also on the quick back-up for the first time. Those are all legitimate queries. But her record at Flemington is very good, with two Group 1 wins from four starts. Happy to take on Extra Brut, who won the Derby last weekend over 2500m but really had the race set up for him with the pace set up front. Back to 2000m on the quick back-up and still in his first preparation. This is a big ask.
RACE 9
Huge field to finish off the day but there’s really two that stand out to me. The undefeated Eurack is the obvious one, having won four from four to start her career. She only had the one start last prep and won fairly softly over 1100m at Caulfield and she’s been off the track for 40 weeks since then. Her recent jump out was very sharp – she jumped well and led before railing like a greyhound and coasting to the line. The queries are she’s had a stable change (her original trainer is suspended for a horse having cocaine in its system) and also the fact its her first go down the Flemington straight. But the wide draw should help her given the outside rail is the place to be at this time of the carnival and she’ll take plenty of running down. I actually think the $4.80 is a reasonably good price. As It Lies was well backed first up at Bendigo and absolutely bolted in to win by 5L. She’s at double figure odds and looks a value chance in the race.
Value: As It Lies $9.00 BetEasy
