Flemington Racing Tips for Saturday February 18th

Fresh off 10 winners from 16 races on Wednesday we preview the 9 race card at Flemington this weekend which features the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes! Last weekend we had both our Best Bet and Best Value Bet salute so hopefully we can back that up this weekend.

Race 1

She has all the weight to carry but surely the class of PURE PRIDE will get her over the line here. She is a Group 1 horse racing in 84 grade here so while she is first up with 60kg, her performances last prep suggest she has a few lengths on this field. She was luckless first up last prep at Cranbourne and then went on to finish 2nd in Group 2 company before finishing within a length of I Am A Star in a Group 1. We've seen I Am A Star return in great style last weekend so if Pure Pride returns at her best you'd think she wins this. The one at a bit of value that I think will go close is MA JONES who comes into this at her fourth run back from a break. First up she was ordinary, second up she pulled up lame, but last start she returned to her best finishing 0.75L behind Diamond Baroness. She gets a 4kg swing on Diamond Baroness here so she can turn the tables. Happy to back Pure Pride and save on Ma Jones, and also have something on the quinella/exacta.

Tip: Pure Pride

Race 2

Really keen on two horses here. The first is the favourite DUKE OF BRUNSWICK who looks incredibly well placed to win again. Won in this grade last start and he is only having his fourth run back so there's a chance he could even improve on last start. Only goes up 2kg, draws perfectly and this isn't a very deep race at all. Looks very hard to beat. The other I'm very interested in is SADAQA who looks way over the odds to me. He ran really well first up over this track and distance and was only a length off the winner despite being held up briefly at the 200m mark. Steps up in grade here but drops 4kg and importantly, his second up record is excellent having only missed a place once from six starts. From the good draw $15 looks a big price and $3.40 for the place looks decent.

Tip: Duke Of Brunswick / Sadaqa EW (Best Value) 

Race 3

Not a great race this with not many standing out at all. CHURCHILL DANCER is the best horse in the race and he's got four wins over track and distance, as well as some good performances in Group 1 and Group 2 company, but he does have to carry 5kg more than anything else in the race. He might be better with another run under his belt and with him out of calculations, I think SMART DART is the one that stands out on the back of recent performances. While I'd prefer him around a bend, his recent form is hard to look past and with just 55kg on his back he should be hard to beat here at $4.60. SO SI BON is the big query and whether he is sharp enough first up from a spell over 1200m is the big question for me. I don't think he will be and he looks under the odds, but he is bound for much better races than this. BOOMWAA could be the value here at $9.50. He had a long time off the track but showed last start that he could be ready to win again soon. His only two wins have come third up from a spell and he has placed twice over track and distance in the past. 

Tip: Smart Dart / Boomwaa EW

Race 4

Very tough race with a number of chances and several different formlines that are hard to line up. I think we'll get a good run for our money from TIME AWAITS who absolutely bolted in on debut in Adelaide before returning from a spell with a good performance behind Formality who is a live Blue Diamond hope. The wide draw here could actually be beneficial with the rail out 9m meaning the outside rail could be the spot to be in the straight races. At $6 I think he's worth a small bet. Very wary of the Snowden runner TAKING AIM who ran a really good race behind Menari who is high up in Golden Slipper betting. He gapped the third horse that day and if Menari was running here he'd be short odds to win. Bowman takes the ride and he should go close. SANADAAT looks another very promising 2YO for the Lindsay Park team after an impressive debut in Adelaide, while Dwayne Dunn jumps off Time Awaits to ride GROUNDBREAK for Team Hawkes so he could be the value at $16. Hard race.

Tip: Time Awaits 

Race 5

HARLOW GOLD has been very well backed early on in betting here but I just get the feeling that we'll see her at her best after one or two runs and stepped up in distance. She got out to the 2500m of the Oaks last campaign and is being set for the Oaks again this campaign which tells me she may just be a touch dour first up over 1400m. LEGLESS VEUVE was a good winner first up over 1400m at Caulfield in Group 3 company and despite carrying top weight here she is a genuine chance of winning again. I'm interested in NURSE KITCHEN at $7 however. I think this is a very talented filly and I think she can win this first up from a spell with Bowman on board. She was a Group 2 winner over 1600m last prep but was desperately unlucky the start before that over 1200m, so if she is tuned up she could very well win this. The value in the race could be KENEDNA who ran well behind Oak Door two starts ago before charging home last start at Caulfield. She draws well here and gets the blinkers on for the first time so at double figure odds she is worth a bet.

Tip: Nurse Kitchen / Kenedna EW

Race 6

Four or five that I'm interested in here. HEY DOC goes on top. He returned with a good run in the Manfred Stakes behind Legless Veuve, finishing 3rd beaten 1.5L over the unsuitable 1200m trip. He's much better suited up to 1400m and I think from the gate he is set to get the run of the race. I think he's better suited at the distance than Morton's Fork, who will be even better up to 1600m and might need a bit of luck from barrier 2. Still, the $6 available for him is more than acceptable and I expect him to be right in the finish here. LAND OF PLENTY looks over the odds at $12. He finished 2nd to Hey Doc last prep over 1600m when worse off at the weights than he is today, and returned with a solid 3rd first up over 1100m. Straight up to 1400m now, he will run a big race at odds. The two blowouts could be INSIDE AGENT who gets blinkers on for the first time, and SNITZSON who had excuses for his last start failure.

Tip: Hey Doc

Race 7

Best bet of the day here with CROCODILE ROCK who looks a legitimate player when the Spring comes around. Absolutely cantered in and was barely touched when stepped up to 2400m last start with 61.5kg on his back. Drops back to 2000m here but has had a month between runs so he should be nicely freshened up. Wide barrier is the slightest of queries but he could very well go straight to the lead and run them into the ground. SKULDUGGERY could be a value play after having excuses last start. 2000m is much better than 2400m for him and the way he was racing before that means he could run a good race at around 20/1.

Tip: Crocodile Rock (Best Bet) - SCRATCHED
(Value play / 2nd pick - Skulduggery) 

Race 8

What a line up we have here for the Lightning Stakes! I found this race almost impossible to bet into. If this was over 1200m I'd have FLYING ARTIE a clear top pick ahead of SPIETH, but the fact it's over 1000m makes me reconsider. I just don't know if Flying Artie will be sharp enough first up over 1000m, while Spieth has never run over the distance before. That makes me lean towards the other star 3YO STAR TURN, who I think can win this over 1000m. SUPIDO is the big unknown. he's undefeated from four starts at Flemington and loves the 1000m, but comes into this first up from a long spell. TERRAVISTA is another to consider. He should have won this race last year if not for Damien Oliver fumbling his whip, and his first up stats are impeccable. THE QUARTERBACK the value. Leaning towards Star Turn ahead of Spieth and Flying Artie.

Tip: Star Turn

Race 9

Pretty keen on a couple here. HARD CALL goes on top. He bolted in three starts ago before an unlucky midfield finish behind Burning Front which has proven to be a strong form race. Last start he had no luck but still sprinted very well to get the money at Moonee Valley under a big weight and that performance tells me he is ready for the step up to 1700m and the weight shouldn't be a problem. Draws well and should be competitive again at a decent enough price. GERVAIS comes out of two strong form races. Two starts ago he beat the very promising Crocodile Rock before running 2nd to Hipparchus last start with Battlecamp back in 3rd. He's placed at both starts at this track and looks a good bit of value at $7. ENTRE NOUS is another at value that appeals. His first up run was enormous over the 1400m here and his second up record is phenomenal having won 4 from 6. Draws sticky in 13 but $14 looks big.

Tip: Hard Call / Entre Nous EW