Aurie's Star Handicap 1200m - Group 3
Group 3 action in Melbourne this weekend to kick off the new season with the Aurie's Star Handicap at Flemington.
11 runners are set to tackle the straight six furlongs (1200m) after the early scratchings of Manageress and Beirut, with Ruetigger heading up the market as the $3.60 favourite.
The track is currently rated a Soft 5, but with the weather forecast suggesting there is no rain in the next two days we may see and upgrade to a Good 4.
Let's go through the chances of each runner:
DIBAYANI: 1.5L defeat to Winx last prep looks super form! However, he's never run over 1200 and his best is definitely 1600m-2000m, so this will test him. Never won first up either, and his best is definitely going the Sydney direction - the last time we saw him in Melbourne he locked his jaw and ran to the outside fence. Prepared to let him go around here.
SMART VOLATILITY: We saw the real Smart Volatility last start when he won the Ramornie Handicap. His Hong Kong form is super strong, and history suggests he will only improve again today. Never finished out of the top two 3rd up from a spell. Will be interesting to see how he handles the Melbourne way - he has only ever raced the opposite way in Sydney and Hong Kong. Chance.
ESCADO: Tends to need a few runs to get into gear and he is looking for the longer trips so the 1200m of the Flemington straight will find him out. Only has two placings from 12 runs at Flemington. Looking elsewhere.
MIGHTY LIKE: First up specialist who won well over this track and distance in easier grade last start. Has won two from four 2nd up from a spell and drops in weight here with the rise in grade, but does get the significant booking of D Oliver. Definite chance.
TASHBEEH: Resumes from a spell here but did his best racing over longer than this last prep. Does get in on the minimum weight and has performed well when fresh before, and has never missed a place at the track (including 3 wins). Think he will find this a bit sharp but could sneak a place.
MR CHARD: 9YO who returns after 469 days off the track. Has performed well at this track and distance before but he's never won from 9 attempts first up and he will be going around to blow some rust off here.
PHEIDON: Makes his debut for a new stable after leaving the Gai Waterhouse operation. Has won two from four first up previously, but never over a distance as short as this. Think he will need the run and based on his form last prep it's hard to see him featuring here.
RUETIGGER: Has been running consistently well and produced a good win over this track and distance last start. One of the few that are proven over the straight six furlongs here, and the track condition won't bother him at all. Remains on the minimum weight, might need a good ride but if he reproduces last start he will be hard to beat.
MAGNUS REIGN: Good performance when running 2nd to Mighty Like last start but is 3.5kg worse off at the weights here so he faces a tough task turning the tables. Inconsistent type so hard to back him with any confidence. Place chance.
JUST MAGICAL: Was fair when carrying a big weight first up from a decent spell last start at Moonee Valley. That was in easier grade and this is much harder so looks tested in this field.
SOOBOOG: Punters nightmare. Rarely far away but rarely in the winners enclosure! Finished 4th, beaten one length, last start behind Lord Von Costa over this track and distance ad the firmer surface here should suit him a bit better. Down on the minimum, he looks well placed to run a good race but hard to back him to win with any confidence.
Summary
Good, competitive race we have here. Ruetigger probably deserves to be favourite on the back of a string of good showings. If he reproduces his form from last start he will go close. Mighty Like won well first up and he's performed well when 2nd up before. Ollie goes on and he comes down in weight so no reason he can't be in the finish again. Very interested in seeing Smart Volatility go around here at his first Melbourne start, while Sooboog will be thereabouts.
1st MIGHTY LIKE
2nd SMART VOLATILITY
3rd RUETIGGER
4th SOOBOOG
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
