Exciting Group 1 action around the country this weekend, as we take a detailed look at Flemington with the running of the 2016 Makybe Diva Stakes, while we also offer horse racing betting tips for each race!
Flemington Racing Tips - Saturday, September 10th
Race 1 - Lucques
Race 2 - My Country (Best Value)
Race 3 - Seaburge
Race 4 - Ulmann
Race 5 - Defcon (Best Bet)
Race 6 - Kinglike
Race 7 - Black Heart Bart (Preview Below)
Race 8 - Thames Court EW
Race 9 - Royal Rapture
Best Bet: Race 5 - Defcon
Proved his class first up over the 1200m at Caulfield. First time down the straight is the only real concern I have (and hopefully no track bias) but if he can utilize his short burst of speed he should be tough to beat again.
Best Value: Race 2 - My Country
Always have to respect when the Snowdens send horses to Melbourne, as we found out with Defcon. That tells me this filly is here for a reason, and her record of 3 wins from 4 starts suggests she has a lot of talent. Sticky barrier but she can win at each way odds.
PFD Food Services Makybe Diva Stakes
A field of 13 is engaged in the $500,000 Makybe Diva, and while rain is forecast, Flemington is rated a Good 3 but shouldn't be anything worse than a Soft 5 on race day.
Let's go through the runners:
PRINCE OF PENZANCE: Lost sight of the leaders first up at Caulfield in the Memsie. Step up to 1600m suits him - a distance which he has contested 4 times for two wins and a place - and he also holds a good record at Flemington. Certainly better suited on the bigger track and could run a big race.
HAPPY TRAILS: Back for another preparation and he resumes here after two trials. His first up run last prep over 1400m was actually quite good despite his reasonably poor first up record. Don't think he is a winning chance but could go well.
BLACK HEART BART: Really impressive win in the Memsie first up from a short spell. He got the perfect run and the race was set up perfectly for him but he was still dominant. If he reproduces that effort (which is likely given his great 2nd up record) he is very, very hard to beat here.
OUR IVANHOWE: Resumed from a short break in Brisbane to win the Group 1 Doomben Cup over 2000m. Spelled and resumes again here, and he does have three wins when first up. Hasn't won below 2000m but could run a bold race.
JACQUINOT BAY: Big run first up in the PB Lawrence and then had no luck in the Dato at Moonee Valley last start. Looks to be going well but still think he is a touch short of the best horses in this race.
ENTIRELY PLATINUM: Good effort first up in the PB Lawrence and comes into this 2nd up. Has won three times from seven starts when 2nd up and he will lead or box seat from barrier 1 here. Think he is better at Caulfield than Flemington but could run a good race.
HE OR SHE: He was another one that was just too far back from the leaders in the Memsie an had way too much to do. Still finished off quite well and is much better suited here 2nd up over a mile. Won the Gr2 Blamey Stakes over this track and distance last prep (beat The United States) so expect him to go well.
ALPINE EAGLE: Probably needed the hit out first up in the Memsie. Should be fitter and the step up to 1600m suits, as does the Flemington track. Looking forward to seeing how he improves with more racing. Price looks about right.
TARZINO: Thought he finished off well in the Memsie over an unsuitable trip and a fast tempo. He was a mile off them in the run and can settle closer here from barrier 4. Has finished in the top two at both starts over this track and distance, and has also finished in the top two at both starts when second up. Should go very well.
PALENTINO: Worked home okay in the Memsie without being spectacular. Much better suited 3rd up where he is undefeated. The mile is also more to his liking and he has no excuses today from barrier 5. Rates well but has a big job to beat his stablemate.
AYERS ROCK: Aiming way too high here. Was beaten in BM78 grade convincingly last start and has never placed 2nd up.
RISING ROMANCE: Great first up run behind Black Heart Bart in the Memsie. Hayes did report that she was flying and from barrier 2 she will once again get all the favours in the run. Not a great 2nd up record but based on her first up run she should go well again.
SOFIA ROSA: Average first up run in the Memsie and might just prefer a bit more cut out of the ground, as well as 2000m+. Probably needs this run and look for her when she gets up in distance.
1st BLACK HEART BART
2nd PALENTINO
3rd TARZINO
4th OUR IVANHOWE
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
