Michael Lee is back with his esports betting previews for Tuesday, July 19. Today, he looks at two LPL 2022 Summer matches in ThunderTalk Gaming vs OMG and LNG Esports vs Ultra Prime and one LCO 2022 Split 2 match between Dire Wolves and PEACE.
Esports Betting Tips: Tuesday, July 19th
ThunderTalk Gaming vs OMG
LPL 2022 Summer
ThunderTalk Gaming have dropped off a bit recently, but statistically, they’re not a bad team. When betting on any match, you should obviously check the most recent results and pick a team that has looked better of late – so the only reasonable choice here would be OMG. But I disagree.
I don’t see any drastic difference in quality between these two teams, and I can confidently say that they’ll end the season in about the same spot. I would even argue that ThunderTalk Gaming are a slightly better team based on what I’ve seen from them this split.
This will also be a stylistically tough match for OMG, who have a terrible early game – in contrast to ThudnerTalk, who are explosive in the first 20 minutes. And yet, despite all that, OMG are the favourites? This is a prime example of bias towards recent results.
In my eyes, ThunderTalk are seriously underrated in this contest, and they even have side selection, which only adds to their chances of beating OMG. Had the odds indicated that this is a 55/45 match, I would have no problem with it, but there is no way OMG deserve to be 1.28 favourites.
I don’t have to think twice before putting my money on ThunderTalk at 3.50.
ThunderTalk Gaming to win
$3.50 (1 Unit)
LNG Esports vs UltraPrime
LPL 2022 Summer
UltraPrime have been struggling this split, and their numbers don’t show anything we don’t already know – this is a bottom-tier team. They’ve won a few games but I wasn’t impressed with what UltraPrime’ve shown, particularly against LGD, where they threw away early leads.
LNG Esports are a strange team. They’re a good team on paper, but their performances have been largely disappointing. What’s wrong with this team? Who knows, but they still carry brand value, which explains why LNG are such big favourites.
In some weird way, UltraPrime and LNG should be much better, both have strong individual players, but they operate terribly as a team. Although I wouldn’t say that LGD have been a dumpster fire, but this is not a team you would trust to 2-0 anyone.
They have the talent to do it, but LNG are way too inconsistent and are just not a team I would trust to cover the map handicap. Therefore, there is just one reasonable bet for this match – UltraPrime +1.5 maps. I don’t expect UP to win, and I wouldn’t argue that this is a good team, but 1.66 is just too high to pass on.
UltraPrime +1.5 Maps
$1.66 (2 Units)
Dire Wolves vs PEACE
LCO 2022 Split 2
Dire Wolves have returned to form on Monday with a commanding victory over Pentanet.GG, ending their two-game dry streak with defeats against ORDER and Chiefs Esports. I wouldn’t call those losses shocking, nor would I overreact to Dire Wolves losing against the current top teams in the league. Still, it’s nice to see them get back on track ahead of the final three weeks of the split.
Their next opponents, PEACE have not had the season they were hoping for, but they’re still 8-6, which isn’t that bad. However, PEACE are 3-3 across their last six with defeats against kanga, MAMMOTH, and Chiefs, and wins against ORDER, Pentanet.GG, and Gravitas.
Recent results-wise, there isn’t much to separate PEACE and Dire Wolves, and I don’t see any major quality differences when comparing the teams. Still, PEACE have won their last two meetings with Dire Wolves, which explains why they’re the favourites for this match.
The H2H record favours PEACE, but I wouldn’t consider it to be a very valuable statistic knowing how much the meta has changed over the last weeks. This match should be much closer to 50/50, so I’ll much rather bet on Dire Wolves at 2.10.
Dire wolves to win
$2.10 (1 Unit)
