The English Premier League title race is already tightening as Matchday 9 arrives, with Manchester City’s first defeat of the season allowing Arsenal to draw level on points. Two meetings involving top-four contenders headline the weekend, while Chelsea and Manchester United face off in another high-profile fixture.
We’ve assessed three of the round’s biggest games and identified our preferred EPL bets, with the analysis and recommended stakes below.
EPL Matchday 9 Betting Tips
| Match |
Best Bet |
Odds (Units) |
| Chelsea vs Manchester United |
Total Goals Over 3.5 |
$2.38 (1 Unit) |
| Manchester City vs Brighton |
Brighton +1 |
$2.20 (1 Unit) |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal |
Total Goals Under 2.5 |
$1.95 (1.5 Units) |
Chelsea vs Manchester United
Saturday 31 October · 11:30pm AEDT
Stamford Bridge
Eight games into a season and it’s a familiar tale for Manchester United, who have another manager fighting for his life after a horror start to the season. The Red Devils sit in 16th place with a 1-4-3 record, only one point ahead of the relegation zone - a remarkable fall after finishing last season so well. Chelsea have dropped out of the top four after a shock loss to Tottenham last, producing an awful performance that saw them only record 31% possession and 6 shots on goal.
Manchester United have now gone six games without a Premier League win, with their last win coming back on Matchday 2, in August. It hasn’t been the hardest fixture either, with four games against sides below 11th on the table and only one game against a top four opponent. Chelsea’s defence has become a point of concern for Xabi Alonso, however the way his side have functioned in the front half this season gives him plenty of tools to work with going forward.
These two sides have had a capacity to concede plenty of goals this season, Chelsea have conceded the third most goals in the Premier League (15) while United have conceded 13 goals, the eighth most. Four of Chelsea’s eight games this season have ended over 3.5 total goals, and the manner in how easy the Red Devils defence was dismantled last week by Bournemouth it should be another high scoring affair. Chelsea will win in convincing fashion, producing attacking football against struggling Manchester United.
BEST BET
Total Goals Over 3.5
$2.38 (1 Unit)
Manchester City vs Brighton
Sunday 1 November · 1:00am AEDT
Etihad Stadium
The Etihad plays host to a blockbuster clash as league leaders Manchester City take on third place Brighton, with both teams looking to bounce back from a rare defeat. Manchester City’s perfect start to the season came to an abrupt end last week, in a 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa. The league leaders won the shot count 15-8 and recorded 63% possession, failing to make the most of their domination in general play, in a frustrating defeat. Brighton suffered their second loss of the season last week, unable to penetrate Liverpool’s defence in a 2-0 defeat. The Seagulls had 16 shots but only one on target, as they couldn’t find a way to get through the Reds.
Despite the defeat, Brighton produced a pretty good performance that would beat most teams in the league. It is a tough task this week coming up against the league leaders, however they are more than capable of winning this game, let alone keeping it close. Brighton are the highest scoring team in the Premier League this season (23 goals), the third best defence in the league (7 goals conceded) and are ranked 4th for possession (60.4%).
This is a well rounded side that will compete right to the end against Manchester City. Manchester City and Brighton have played in plenty of close games in the last two seasons, and Brighton are one of the few teams in the league that actually have a good recent record against City. Brighton have picked up two wins and two draws in their last four games against Manchester City, so heading to the Etihad will not hold any fears for the Seagulls.
BEST BET
Brighton +1
$2.20 (1 Unit)
Liverpool vs Arsenal
Monday 2 November · 3:30am AEDT
Anfield
The second top four clash of the Matchday sees second placed Arsenal travelling to Anfield to face fourth placed Liverpool. Matchday 8 was successful for both sides as Liverpool jumped into the top four with a win over Brighton, while Arsenal moved to equal on points with league leaders Manchester City after a 2-0 victory against Everton. Arsenal are six points clear of Liverpool, so this game has massive ramifications in the makeup of the top four. Will the Gunners increase their gap, or will the Reds keep pushing up the table?
Just like last season, Arsenal’s defence has been the key to success, once again being the best defence in the league having conceded only five goals through eight games. The Gunners have held five clean sheets in eight games, also a league best. Liverpool have also been an excellent defensive team this season, ranked 4th having conceded just 8 goals. Arsenal have been better than Liverpool at maintaining possession this season, so look for the Gunners to try and deny the ball from the Reds to maintain control in this clash.
These two teams have been tough to split in recent seasons. Since 2022 Liverpool and Arsenal have met in eight Premier League fixtures, with five draws from those eight games. Both Arsenal and Liverpool have had four of their eight games this season go under 2.5 total goals, showcasing the strength in their defence, and their commitment to their method. Both games between these two clubs last season saw under 2.5 total goals, and that is where we will be going in this fixture.
BEST BET
Total Goals Under 2.5
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
