Just three weeks ago, this matchup would have been a salivating prospect, but with the Eels in turmoil we could be in for another one-sided Cowboys win on Saturday night in Round 6. With the pressure ratcheting up on coach Brad Arthur, the Eels are desperate for a result here against a Cowboys team that have started the season 4-1.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 6 Preview & Betting Tips
Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys
CommBank Stadium, Saturday 6th March, 5:30pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Eels fell to their second straight loss last Sunday, as they were hammered 41-8 by the Raiders in Canberra. The Eels looked as though they gave up in the second half, and if their defence isn’t up to it this week, they could give up 50 to this Cowboys attack. The Raiders made 650+ more metres than the Eels, whilst the Eels allowed 9 line-breaks, missed 38 tackles, and conceded a whopping 10 penalties.
The Cowboys got back on track last week after a round 4 loss to the Broncos, overcoming the Titans 35-22 at home. The Cowboys were dominant, save for an 8-minute period where the Titans ran in three unanswered tries, however it never seemed as though the Cowboys were in danger. Coach Todd Payten will still have concerns over defensive lapses occurring weekly from his team, but this attack looks as good as any team in the league, and it will keep them in most games this season.
Match Preview
The Eels and Cowboys met twice last season, with the home team winning on both occasions by the same scoreline, 24-16. In round 13 at CommBank Stadium, the Eels closed massive 15.5-point favourites, with both teams missing their State of Origin stars. Mitch Moses was instrumental in the win, which is relevant to this matchup, given the Eels superstar halfback will be missing. The Cowboys got revenge in round 21 at home, with the Cowboys closing 7.5-point home favourites. Moses scored two tries for the Eels, in another sign of how important he is for this team.
So, with no Moses, the Eels opened 1.5-point underdogs at home before last weekend’s games, and the market obviously didn’t like what it saw from the Eels, as they have drifted out to 3.5-point home underdogs. If the Eels can’t figure it out, the Cowboys could well and truly run up a score on them here. I think the number is about right here, and with the number still under 4, I would lean Cowboys, but the Eels have a lot to play for here and I can’t trust the Cowboys defence.
The total opened 45.5 and has been bet up to 47.5. I strongly agree with the move, and my fair total is 50, so an over bet still has some value here in my opinion. The main concern I have with the over is the goal kicking of Clint Gutherson. After being on the over last week in the Eels/Raiders game, watching Gutho shank several kicks at goal made what should have been an easy over, turn into a real sweat.
So, for a second week in a row, I’ll look for the Cowboys to cover their team total, which currently sits around the 24 mark. After averaging 31.5 points per game to start the season, I expect the Cowboys to get theirs in attack, with five tries getting them home.
Cowboys (team total) over 24.5
$2 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Cowboys to Win – See above, Cowboys should win this one.
S Drinkwater (1+ try) – Drinkwater’s form has been a little up and down this season, but he is always a great chance at a try. Scored in both games against the Eels last season.
S Russell (1+ try) – Russell is due. Has played in five games this season with zero tries, however he scored in both games against the Cowboys last season.
SGM Odds: $8.64 at Neds
