Our Friday night NRL double-header is capped off with a clash involving two teams without their starting halfback, as the Eels look to get back on track with their first win since round 6, as they host the Broncos, who are fresh off an embarrassing loss to the Roosters.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 10 Preview & Betting Tips
Parramatta Eels vs Brisbane Broncos
CommBank Stadium, Friday 10th May, 8:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Eels come into this week fresh off the bye, however instead of getting healthier in the week off, they have lost fullback Clint Gutherson. Now, without their two most influential players, the Eels must face a Broncos team looking to get back on track after a loss in round 9. Last time we saw the Eels was in round 8, where they were comprehensively beaten 32-18 by the Sea Eagles. The Eels led 14-6 at half time, however, as has been happening a lot for the Eels this season, they were horrible in the second half, as they gave up four converted tries, as well as a penalty goal, to lose the second half 26-4.
The Broncos were in a tight contest last week against the Roosters, with the Chooks leading 18-6 at the half, before two quick tries for the Broncos in the first 10 minutes of the second half got them back on level pegging with the Roosters. Then, the Broncos lost Adam Reynolds to a ruptured bicep, and with it any chance in the match, as the Roosters piled on four tries in 14 minutes to run away with the game 40-18. The Broncos discipline continues to be a problem, as they made 13 errors to maintain their position as the team with the most errors per game this season.
Match Preview
The Broncos and Eels met twice last season, and interestingly enough, neither game was at either club’s traditional home ground. In round 8, the Broncos got the better of the Eels 26-18 at TIO Stadium in Darwin, closing as 2.5-point favourites, with a total of 43.5. Then, in round 24, the Broncos destroyed the Eels 54-10 at the Gabba, closing as 12.5-point favourites, with a total of 46.5. Before last year, the Eels had had the better of the Broncos for the past few seasons, winning six of the past seven matches between the teams, however last season may have turned the tide.
As for this clash, the Broncos opened massive 14.5-point favourites, with the Eels seemingly bottoming out regarding their rating in the market. With the loss of Adam Reynolds, the Eels have taken on money this week, with the line now sitting at 8.5. With no Reynolds and a rookie (Josh Rogers) named at halfback, I can understand the move. I made the number Broncos -12 with Reynolds available, so the +14.5 last week seemed like good value on the Eels, however with that number no longer available, the 8.5 seems like a good spread for this one.
As for the total, it opened 45.5 and has been bet down slightly to 44.5. If both teams were at full strength and this was being played in neutral conditions, my fair would be 48, so on face value the over looks like solid value here. However, with both teams missing their half backs, and the terrible weather set to continue over the weekend, I see value in the under. However, given the unknowns in this matchup, we will be keeping our stake to the minimum one unit here, keeping our powder dry for better matchups this week.
Under 45.5 Points
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
W Penisini (1+ try) – The Broncos left edge has conceded half their tries this season, and with Penisini being one of the form players for the Eels, I like him to cross this weekend.
D Mariner (1+ try) – Mariner had a dud game last weekend, and he will be looking to get back on track here. Back him to score his 7th of the season.
First team to score a try (Broncos) – Every week except for one this season, the team coming off the bye has conceded the first try. We will back the Broncos to keep that streak up.
SGM Odds: $11.16 at Neds
