Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Eagle Farm on Saturday, June 6th.
The main day of the revised 2020 Brisbane Winter Carnival takes place at Eagle Farm this Saturday, with the G1 Stradbroke Handicap and G1 JJ Atkins headlining a blockbuster day. The track is rated a Good 4 and the rail is in out 3m the entire circuit.
Find our comprehensive preview and betting tips of Stradbroke Day below!
Eagle Farm Racing Tips: 2020 Stradbroke Day
Best Bet: Race 3 - (2) Pinnacle Star
Best Value: Race 7 - (11) Overlord
Staying event to kick off the day. (2) Advance Warning goes on top for me at $4.20. He's got progressively better with each run this preparation, and his record shows that he typically takes a few runs to get fit and find form. But when he does find form, and particularly over this distance, he tends to hold it. He won at this stage of his last campaign and went on to win three races in four starts, all of which were around this distance. I think the value is the Waller runner, (5) Stardome. We saw Waller completely dominate the staying races last weekend in both Sydney and Brisbane. This horse has had three runs back from a spell and has also improved with each run. He's fourth up now and makes the sharp rise in distance from 1600m to 2200m. I don't typically like such a quick rise in trip but with Waller, I'm happy to let it go. Luke Dittman takes the ride - he's only had six rides for Waller this season but three of them have been winners. The horse may well be a bit of a nonnie and might also appreciate it a bit wetter, but at the double figure odds I'll be playing.
Value: (5) Stardome $11
(2) Advance Warning
$4.20
We see a short-priced favourite here in the form of (4) Soxagon who has returned this prep with two wins from as many starts. Both have been on the Gold Coast and now he returns back to the city. Last prep he ran well behind the likes of Vega One and Snitz, which looks pretty solid form, so he appears the one they all have to beat on paper. My concern would be the fact Mark Currie has only trained one winner from 33 starters at Eagle Farm this season. I think the horse being overlooked here is (5) The Kingdom at $9.00. He resumed with a win over 1400m here at Eagle Farm on heavy ground, and he sat three-wide the trip in doing so. He's got a tremendous record at Eagle Farm with four wins from five starts, but since then he's won five races in a row. He might be looking for a touch longer now but he's flying, draws the inside gate and looks over the odds at $9.00.
There's a couple of very fanciul bets here and I'm keen to get involved. (2) Pinnacle Star is a clear top pick. He was backed as if unbeatable first up at the Sunshine Coast but he just came up short. He's only missed a place once in his career and that was second up last prep when caught three-wide the trip. He's run 2nd in both starts here at Eagle Farm, trainer David Vandyke has a 27% strike rate here in the last 12 months, Ryan Maloney has a 40% strike rate when riding for Vandyke, and they've come up with barrier 1. He looks very hard to beat. With that said, there are a couple outside him that do appeal at big odds. (17) Pure Pulse is the second elect of Chris Anderson's runners but he's a good chance at $26. He doesn't have a jockey listed and he's currently the emergency, but if he gets a run, include him in your numbers. He's had two runs back from a spell, running 3rd first up and then 2nd last start. That last start was behind Plenty, who then came out and won again. He's got a good third up record and draws well. (11) Magic Fox is another at good odds to include. He was well-backed last start btu was caught three-wide the trip, and prior to that he only got clear at the 100m mark. He has a good record at the track and distance, draws well and is worth another chance, especially given his market support last time out. He's a $15 chance. (5) Plenty and (7) Totally Charmed ran the quinella when they met over track and distance last start. Both draw well and can be included once again.
Value: (17) Pure Pulse $26 & (11) Magic Fox $15
This looks another good race for (14) Red Stina, who comes off a last-start win at the track and distance. That was her second win at the track and distance from as many starts, and she's won both of those pretty comfortably. She posted a 1.3L margin last start and meets the horse that ran 2nd 3kg better off at the weights, so she really gets in well. Drawn well in barrier 4 but she does typically step slowly from the gates, so the hope is that she isn't too far off them at the top of the straight. If she's within range, she's the most likely winner. Chris Waller has two runners in the race and I think (11) Mangione is the value in the race. He's had two runs back from a spell up in Sydney. He was poor first up but that's not unusual for him. He was sent back to the trials following that, which isn't unlike Waller, and he then improved last time out.Third up today, he's now up to a suitable distance and Ryan Maloney is a notable jockey booking. The $9.00 isn't a bad bet in a race that lacks some depth.
Value: (11) Mangione $9.00
This is a tricky little race over the 1000m. I've got the favourite (6) Jami Lady on top but a blowout wouldn't completely surprise me here. Jami Lady resumes from a spell and follows a similar path to the one she took last preparation, with one 840m trial at Doomben in preparation for this. She won first and second up last preparation and she gets her chance to do so again fresh today from barrier 1. Four of the 13 winners over 1000m at Eagle Farm this season have come from barrier 1, but we have also seen recently that it's no bad thing to be coming down the middle of this track with the issues they've had. It's hard to predict how it will play on race day but she should land 4th or 5th on the rail and prove hard to beat. I think there's value in (15) Hi Fiver provided he gets a run, but he's currently second emergency so is probably unlikely to gain a spot in the field. He's come back in good order this prep, with a narrow 3rd placing first up followed by consecutive wins. He's a short course specialist and even though he's drawn wide, it might not be the worst thing given there's a fair bit of speed on paper and he could find the right part of the track. It's hard to ignore him in the form he's in so $12 looks appealing. (4) Royal Witness was completely murdered last start and started $4.80 on that occasion. Her form just a few starts ago was enough to warrant plenty of respect here. (7) Spitrit's Choice is a short course specialist and she resumes from a spell without a trial. She won first up last prep and should be able to get across from barrier 12. She'll have a headstart on the other favourite but my main query with her is that she lacks metropolitan form.
(3) Supergiant and (1) Ballistic Boy ran the quinella in the G3 Gunsynd Classic here at Eagle Farm two weeks ago, with a nostril separating the pair on that occasion. Supergiant led throughout and clung on from a fast-finishing Ballistic Boy, who was held up for a run at a crucial stage in the straight. While the run of Ballistic Boy was probably more impressive visually, Supergiant did a good job to hand on after doing all the work. They meet at the same weights again and I really don't think there should be such a discrepency in the market, especially one favouring Ballistic Boy. He's drawn wide in 12 and the map looks a bit ugly for him, while Supergiant will simply slide across and sit outside the Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott runner (4) Navy Cross, who surely leads. Outside of those two, there doesn't appear much pace, so it could be run pretty steadily, which will make them hard to run down on a firm deck. So I'll stick with Supergiant who still has more to come, this being just his sixth career start. The Waller runners in the race absolutely terrify me, especially given the jockey merry-go-round that has happened. Luek Dittman has ridden (11) Marakopa to victory in his past two starts, but is replaced by Jim Byrne, with Dittman on one of the stablemates at $51. We see these Waller horses hit form in lower races and then produce a new level in their grand finals such as this, so the $14 could be value here about Marakopa. (12) Man Of Sin draws well in barrier 3 and is the other Waller runner that can feature.
Race 7 - G1 JJ Atkins 1400m (Market)
The two-year-old Group 1 is slightly different this year with the event being held over 1400m as opposed to 1600m like it normally is. I think there's one at big odds here that has flown considerably under the radar and that's Chris Waller's (11) Overlord. He's $21 but I can't see any reason he should be that price. He's yet to win a race but Waller is exceptional at getting horses to peak for their grand finals, and this is his. He's bumped into Peltzer in his past two starts, who is a very, very smart horse. Had Peltzer lined up here, he'd probably be favourite. Waller has had great success in this race and he's also had success with the path Overlord has followed into this race. He does draw awkwardly in barrier 19 but I suspect the pace will be right on given this is a juvenile Group 1, and that could set it up for him coming home over the top from the back. (1) Rothfire does look the horse to beat. He's had one little blip in his career, but he responded to that with a strong win first up from a break last start. He's undefeated at Eagle Farm and should only improve off that break. (3) Wisdom Of Water has been dominant up on the Gold Coast but the issue is, he's only been winning on the Gold Coast. He actually started $1.70 on debut against Rothfire here at Eagle Farm, but was beaten 9L. Three weeks between runs is also a slight query. (17) Isotope was impressive in her first two career wins before bumping into Rothfire last start. She may improve off that - she was four weeks between runs so there's the chance they tried to leave something in the tank for grand final day today. (14) Macroura is undefeated from three career starts and draws softly in barrier 2. There's plenty to like about her - she's trained by the powerful Maher/Eustace stable and it's hard to knock her winning form, but it's been more than 10 years since a filly won this race. (2) Wild Ruler is possibly also flying under the radar. Peter and Paul Snowden are right up there with the best in the country at getting their horses 100% for Group 1 days, so even though he was outclassed by Rothfire and Isotope last start, that isn't to say he doesn't still have improvement in him for this. Overlord at big odds each way will be my main bet, Rothfire the pick of the fancies.
Race 8 - G1 Stradbroke Hcp 1400m (Market)
Some quick stats you may or may not find relevant for the Stradbroke - last 10 winners: two females, eight males; two 3YOs, two 4YOs, two 5YOs, four 6YOs (however none in the last five years). Winner's weight last 10 years: 54.kg, 55.5kg, 52.5kg, 54.5kg, 53kg, 55kg, 54.5kg, 53.5kg, 50.5kg, 55.5kg. Barriers of last 10 winners: five single digit, five double digit. So what does that all mean? Well, (1) Trekking is going to find this hard to win in my eyes. He's the best horse in the race but he's going to have to carry 58kg from barrier 17 to win. I was with (5) Victorem in the G2 Victory Stakes last start and I see no reason to jump off him here. He was impressive on that occasion and that backed up a complete forgive run first up when he bucked and threw away any chance early in the race. He's got a good record at this distance with two wins and two placings from four starts, he has an identical third up record, he's won twice here at Eagle Farm, he draws middle of the pack, carries 52.5kg which is a very suitable weight and he handles all track conditions. I don't see much reason to jump ship so I'll take the $8.50 for him to win his first Group 1 here. (16) Dawn Passage looks the obvious horse to beat with the featherweight 50kg on his back. He's been in terrific form this prep, with three wins from five starts, and there were excuses in the other two. His past three wins have all been over this sort of distance, I don't think the wide draw is necessarily that off-putting, and this isn't the strongest of Stradbrokes. (3) Niccanova can be thrown in at big odds. He ran 2nd first up behind Victorem in the Victory Stakes and he's got a very good second up record. His only start over this track and distance was a win, he gets in well with 53kg and the draw shouldn't be an issue. He'd prefer the ground to be wetter but he can go on good ground so at $23 he has to be included. (8) Vega One finally steps up to 1400m for the first time this prep, with the stable saying over and over again that 1200m was short of his best. Four of hsi five career wins have been at this distance, and he's two from three at the track and distance, so expect the real Vega One to show up today. Chances don't end there, I could make a case for five others.
There's no shortage of early speed here so expect them to go along pretty sharp up the front. (7) Aquitaine looks hard to beat. She resumed with a 2nd placing behind Fituese first up in Sydney, which is better form than anything else here. She should come on from that and improve second up. Whether the drop back to 1000m is ideal is a little query but she draws well and should be able to put herself in the front half of the field just off the early pacesetters. So long as she gets clear running, she should be right in the finish. (6) Better Reflection is undefeated from three starts when first up from a spell and could be value at $8.50. This is her toughest test to date and she's yet to win at Eagle Farm, but she gets things to suit here fresh with an inside barrier over the 1000m. This could be won by anything though.
Value: (6) Better Reflection $8.50
