Latrell Mitchell returns for the Rabbitohs on Super Saturday, as they look to snap a four-game losing streak when they head to Netstrata Jubilee Stadium at Kogarah to take on the Dragons, who are riding their own two-game losing streak. Someone must get back in the winners’ circle this week, so let’s dive in.
Below, we will dissect the Dragons vs Rabbitohs matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 10 Preview & Betting Tips
St George Illawarra Dragons vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Saturday 11th May, 5:30pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Dragons suffered successive defeats for the second time this season last week, going down 20-10 in atrocious conditions at Shark Park. The Dragons were right in the game up until halftime, leading 10-6, but were unable to stop the Sharks in the second half, as they piled on 14 unanswered points to win relatively comfortably in the end. Still, it was a better performance from the Dragons, and for a team that hasn’t lost three in a row yet this season, they will be expecting another uptick in form this week against the Rabbitohs.
Speaking of the Rabbitohs, they are coming off a walloping at the hands of the Panthers last Thursday night, going down 42-12 in Interim Head Coach Ben Hornby’s debut behind the clipboard. The Bunnies jumped out of the gates quickly, leading 12-0 after 11 minutes following the early sinbinning of Izack Tago. However, with Jai Arrow being sin binned not long after, the Panthers put their feet on the throats of the Rabbitohs, piling on seven unanswered tries, all without Nathan Cleary. Souths have a long way to go.
Match Preview
These teams met twice last season, with the home side coming out on top on both occasions. In round 15, the Dragons snuck home 36-30, despite letting in three tries in the final three minutes. The Rabbitohs were 3.5-point favourites, despite several unavailables due to Origin (Mitchell, Walker, Murray, Cook, and Koloamatangi), showing how low the Dragons were rated last season. The Bunnies got their revenge in round 24 at Barlow Park, winning 26-14 as 18.5-point favourites. So, the Dragons managed to cover both spreads.
As for this game, the Dragons opened slight 1.5-point favourites, however with the losses of Cam Murray, Dean Hawkins, and Jye Gray, the Rabbitohs have drifted to 5.5-point outsiders. The Rabbitohs have been horrific against the spread this season, going 0-8, showing they are still being overrated by the market.
Obviously, it would have been far better to get on earlier in the week, however at -5.5 I still see the Dragons as the value in the market. Whilst the Rabbitohs should get a boost from the return of Latrell Mitchell, I just can’t trust them until they show me some form.
As for the total, it opened 47.5 and has been bet down slightly to 46.5. It’s hard to see a Rabbitohs game going under, given how poor their defence has been, conceding 8 points more per game than the next worst defence in the NRL. I have a fair total at 50.5 for this one, so do see solid value to the over, the concern being the absolutely horrific weather expected in Sydney on Saturday. As a result, I’ll steer clear until closer to kick-off and assess the conditions.
Dragons -5.5
$1.91 (2 units)
Same Game Multi
No Same Game Multi for this one given the uncertainty surrounding the weather.
