Group 1 racing once again in Brisbane this weekend but we move to the Eagle Farm track which could result in anything happening. The Darley Kingsford-Smith Cup headlines the 8 race card with the track currently in the Heavy 8 range.
It's hard to be confident on this track but we have betting tips below for every race on the card!
Eagle Farm Racing Tips - Saturday, May 27th
Race 1
Really keen on BURNING PASSION here and the $4.40 available is a very decent price, although I'm kicking myself that I missed the $4.80. Did well to finish a length behind the winner first up at Hawkesbury, and the key today is coming into this second up, which normally sees him improve sharply. Last prep he was beaten 6 lengths first up and then came out and lost by a nose second up. He has finished in the top 2 at his other two second up starts as well. The heavy track today will really suit - from five starts on Heavy ground he has three wins and a 2nd. When Hugh Bowman rides for Cummings they tend to go close. Clear top pick.
Tip: Burning Passion
Race 2
Found this race very hard to work out. RELIGIFY is very well suited under weight-for-age conditions given he is the top rated horse in the race, but he needs a firm track. He's only placed twice from five starts on Soft ground and hasn't raced on Heavy ground at all. This will be a shifty track and I doubt that's going to suit him so despite him being backed early from $3.50-$2.40, I'll be looking elsewhere. Going with a bit of value with the Snowden-trained PAJARO who showed last start that he is a ready to win. He always needs a couple of runs to come good but he improves sharply third up. From 14 starts first and second up, he's won once and placed a further three times. From 7 starts when third up, he's won three and placed a further three times. Last start when he was third up he ran home strongly to finish 3rd behind Duca Valentinois, beaten 1.8L. He gets a 2.5kg weight swing on Duca Valentinois today. If we look back to Pajaro's first start this prep, he finished 1.5L behind Duca Valentinois on a Heavy track at Randwick. From that race, Pajaro gets a 7kg turnaround on the Godolphin horse, and given he's now much fitter, I think he can turn the tables. Has placed both starts at this track, Kerrin McEvoy rides for the Snowdens and at $6 I think he's a decent bet here. Further value can be found with COL 'N' LIL at $14 who will relish the lack of speed in the race and the drop in class.
Tip: Pajaro / Col 'N' Lil EW
Race 3
We were on TANGLED at $8.50 last start and there's no reason to jump off here as he makes his way towards the Group 1 JJ Atkins in a couple of weeks. He keeps improving with every run and he gets the blinkers added for the first time here. He won two starts ago over 1350m so the rise to 1400m isn't a concern, and neither is the Heavy track. He won on the Soft 7 last start and is bred for the wet. Draws well in barrier 10 and McEvoy retains the ride, think we're getting a good price at $6. The logical main danger is last start NZ Group 1 winner MELODY BELLE who has her first Australian start here. When the stable bring a horse across to Australia they normally perform very well. She's had a 56 day break leading into this but that's no concern given she won the Group 1 fresh from a 62 day break, and she's another that is bred for the wet. Drawn well and no surprise to see her win. The other NZ visitor QIJI PHOENIX is one to watch but barrier 23 makes things tough.
Tip: Tangled
Race 4
Tough race with several chances but prepared to back NEVERLAND here at his third start this campaign. The slight query is the Heavy track given he's not placed at either of his two starts on wet ground, but one of those was in a Group 1 where he ran 4th and the other was at his first start this prep. He ran an improved race last start under a big weight and looks ready to do something third up here with just 54kg. Damian Lane takes over which is a huge plus, as is the step up to 2200m. The other query is whether he will be able to make up the ground required from back in the field, which is where he will settle from barrier 15. Happy to take the $6 to find out. PEMBERLEY could be a value chance at $14. Goes well on wet ground and has won two of his three races when third up from a spell.
Tip: Neverland
Race 5
Sticking with NZ horse SHOCKING LUCK here after he bolted in last start at Doomben in group 3 company. He draws perfectly in barrier 3 today and will sit just behind the leaders, and the step up to 2200m is no concern at all. Beat many of these horses last start and looks every chance of doing so again. Last start Group 1 winner VOLATILE MIX looks over the odds at $11 despite the drop back in trip from 2500m to 2200m. Draws badly but Damian Lane takes the ride and his combination with Darren Weir is lethal. ORDER AGAIN looks a legitimate danger. He ran 2nd to Shocking Luck last start but he's probably better suited on the Eagle Farm track. he won by 7.5L here two starts ago and that was on Heavy ground so he's definitely in the mix. Happy to take on PRIZED ICON and BLACK ON GOLD on the Heavy track.
Tip: Shocking Luck (Best Bet) / Volatile Mix EW (Best Value)
Race 6
RAIMENT is a pretty clear top pick here for me. She has bolted in at two of her three starts so far this prep, and the day she failed at Randwick the track was hugely favouring front runners. If you put a line through that run, her form looks outstanding for this, with her two wins being by a combined margin of 7.8L. Both of those were in Group 3 company, and while this is probably her toughest test, she looks well up to winning this. Loves the distance, loves the wet ground and despite the wide gate she rates highly. ARTISTRY has had no luck at her past two starts and her best is good enough to win this. The query is whether she will be as good on the Heavy track. EGYPTIAN SYMBOL should improve here second up from a spell and with the drop back to Group 3 company, while the value could lie with MISS DEBUTANTE. ECKSTEIN another to include.
Tip: Raiment
Race 7
The two that really stood out for me in the Group 1 were COUNTERATTACK and DERRYN, who both come through the same race behind Redzel in the Doomben 10,000. Counterattack just finished ahead of Derryn on that occasion, and I think he'll do the same here with the step up to 1300m, which is a distance he's performed well at previously. Loves the wet ground, draws well in barrier 7 and I think he'll be very hard to beat in this at $7. Derryn also draws well in barrier 5 but he may be strung up in traffic as he was last start. He still ran on well to finish a close up 3rd, and he gets a very small weight swing on Counterattack. He also loves the wet ground and if he's close enough at the turn he'll go very close. CLEARLY INNOCENT returned to his best when bolting in at Scone last start. The form is a slight query given Snoopy was the horse he beat, but he is undefeated on Soft ground and Bowman keeps the ride. Two value chances in the race are JUNGLE EDGE who loves the wet, and TYCOON TARA who showed a glimpse of returning to her best form last start. She has a good record at the distance and goes well on wet ground. Looks over the odds at $23.
Tip: Counterattack
Race 8
Happy to take the $6.50 available for TESSERA here who has put the writing on the wall with his two starts so far this prep. His form suggests he's probably better on wet tracks so his effort to flash home and finish 3rd last start was very good. The step up to 1400m is no issue and he draws to get a good run from barrier 4. Ready to win. The value could be CALANDA who also has good form on wet tracks. Forget his run two starts ago in Group 3 company when he never saw daylight, and he didn't get everything his way last start either. Back onto a wet track could see him improve.
Tip: Tessera / Calanda EW
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
