The NRL heads west to HBF Park in Perth on Friday night, as the Dolphins desperately look to keep their top 8 hopes alive, when they host the Sydney Roosters. The Dolphins, who were once in the mix for a top 4 spot, now sit on the fringes of the top 8 on 24 points, equal with three other teams, and desperately need a win on Friday evening over a Roosters side who has struggled the past two weeks. Should be a great spectacle for those out west, and we have a full betting preview below!
2024 NRL Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips
The Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters
HBF Park, Friday 2nd August, 8:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Dolphins are coming off their second straight loss, going down to the Titans 21-14 at Suncorp Stadium last week. It was a poor result for the Dolphins, especially so given the fact they were up 14-0 inside 25 minutes. But they were completely outplayed in the second half, conceding four straight tries to lose their 6th game in their last 10. The Titans were able to run roughshod over the Dolphins forwards, making close to 2000 metres and 600 post contact metres, whilst four players cracked the 200m mark. 13 errors and 44 missed tackles capped of a day to forget for the Dolphins, and a huge turn around is required if they are any chance this week against the Roosters.
The Roosters appeared to be back to their scintillating best in the first 20 minutes of their round 21 clash with the Sea Eagles, storming to a 22-0 lead. They couldn’t keep this level up though, with the Sea Eagles the better team for the remaining hour, as the Roosters could only manage 41% of possession on the back of 14 errors and 7 penalties conceded. This is the second week of poor football in a row from a Roosters side that looked very much like the team to beat before round 20 kicked off. Coach Trent Robinson will be keen on a better performance this week, and alarm bells should be ringing in Redcliffe.
Match Preview
The Roosters and Dolphins haven’t met since round 24 last season, as the Roosters exacted revenge for a round 1 loss to the Dolphins, running out 30-14 winners at Allianz Stadium. The Roosters closed 10.5-point favourites, and despite a poor first half as they trailed 8-0 after 39 minutes, a Joey Manu try on the stroke of halftime seemed to spark something for the Roosters, as they ran in five tries in a 25-minute period to run away 16-point winners. The total closed 47.5, and apart from the 25-minute period where the Roosters dominated, it was a tight back and forth battle that had unders bettors deservedly winning.
For this game, the Roosters opened 7.5-point favourites before last weekend’s matches, which seemed skinny at a neutral venue, and seemed even shorter after the Dolphins poor display on Sunday afternoon. The books responded, re-opening the Roosters as 10.5-point favourites on Monday. The number is still 10.5 at some books, however has pushed to 11.5 at most places. This is smack bang on my number, so objectively I don’t have a play on the spread, however I get the sense the Dolphins’ season is once again petering out, and with the Roosters needing to regain form, this could be a statement game for them.
As for the total, it opened 49.5, with overs money coming in to where the over 49.5 is heavily juiced. My fair total is 50.5, so I don’t see any real value here. These teams are both close to 50/50 when it comes to overs vs unders, so we will be leaving the total alone here.
With Joey Manu back, I like the Roosters to make a statement this weekend and beat the Dolphins convincingly.
Roosters -10.5
$1.93 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
J Bostock (1+ try) – Bostock has been a revelation this season, scoring 13 tries in 17 games. Whilst the Roosters do get Joey Manu back this weekend to sure up their right edge defence, Dom Young continues to prove a liability in defence for the Tricolours.
A Crichton (1+ try) – 8 tries this season for the Wally Lewis Medal Winner, but none for a month now. Expect him to break the drought this weekend.
Roosters (13+) – As above, statement win from the Roosters this week.
SGM Odds: $15 at Bet365
