Two teams placed squarely in the battle for a top 8 spot go head-to-head in the NRL on Saturday night, as the Raiders head north to Redcliffe to take on the 4th placed Dolphins. Both sides will only be slightly affected by Origin, with the Dolphins without Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, and the Raiders without Hudson Young. So, we should be in for a competitive affair.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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- Guide to Betting on the NRL
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 13 Preview & Betting Tips
The Dolphins vs Canberra Raiders
Kayo Stadium, Saturday 31st May, 7:35pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Dolphins had their three-game win streak snapped last Sunday, in a tight 24-20 loss to the Warriors in Auckland. In just their second trip away from Queensland all season, the Dolphins looked the better team early, going up 16-6 after half an hour. But the wheels fell off, as they conceded three unanswered tries either side of half time to trail 24-16 with 10 minutes remaining. A late Jamayne Isaako try gave them some hope, but they couldn’t get the job done. The stats were almost identical, with goal kicking proving the difference, as Adam Pompey went 4/4 for the Warriors, whilst Isaako could only manage 2/4.
The Raiders took on the high-flying Roosters last week at home, and were never in the contest, with the Roosters leading 18-6 at the break. A James Tedesco try in the first minute of the second half all but ended the Raiders resolve, as the Roosters ran out 44-16 winners. Ricky Stuart would have been unimpressed with his side’s discipline, completing at just 69% whilst missing 55 tackles, conceding 7 penalties, and coughing up 12 errors. Major improvement is needed this week.
Match Preview
These teams met twice last season, with the “home” side winning both encounters. In round 2, the Dolphins got the better of the Raiders 20-14 at Kayo Stadium as 3.5-point underdogs. The total closed 41.5. The Raiders didn’t have to wait long to get their revenge, meeting the Dolphins in round 9 at McDonalds Park in Wagga, getting the win 31-30 in Golden Point as 4.5-point favourites. The total for this game closed 42.5.
As for this week, the Dolphins opened 3.5-point favourites prior to last weekend’s games and Origin teams being named, before re-opening at the same number. The number stays at 3.5, however it is heavily juiced towards the Dolphins, indicating the market could bounce over the 4 to 4.5. I see some value here in the Dolphins and believe the loss of the Hammer should be covered relatively easily by the Dolphins with Trai Fuller, whilst the Raiders will have to make do with Ata Mariota covering Hudson Young. With both teams at full strength, I’d make this 7.5, and with the Dolphins back home at Redcliffe for just the second time this season, I like them to get the job done here.
The total meanwhile opened at 49.5, where it remains. There is predicted heavy rain in the afternoon and early evening in Redcliffe, which is making me consider the under here, as I make a fair total 47. But for now, I’ll leave it alone, as both teams have the ability to pile on points.
I’ll take the Dolphins to cover the spread here, and I don’t mind having a small punt on the Dolphins to get the win by 13+ either.
Dolphins -3.5
$1.83 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Dolphins 13+ - As above, I like the odds for the Dolphins to run away with this one. The Raiders have lost five games this season, four of them by a margin of 13+.
J Isaako (1+ try) – Isaako is a try scoring machine, and coming up against the porous Raiders’ left edge, I expect a try or two here.
M Timoko (1+ try) – Always got this guy in my SGM, and whilst this will be a tricky matchup against Herbie Farnworth, I’ll back him in.
SGM Odds: $13.87 at Neds
