The Eels take their annual home game to Darwin’s TIO Stadium in Round 7 this season, where they will take on the Dolphins. Both teams currently have three wins for the season, with the Dolphins (5th) propped up on the ladder with their round 3 bye, whereas the Eels (11th) need a win here to get themselves up into the top 8.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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- Guide to Betting on the NRL
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 7 Preview & Betting Tips
Parramatta Eels vs The Dolphins
TIO Stadium, Friday 19th April, 8:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Eels impressed last week in a 27-20 victory over the Cowboys, in a much-needed performance for a team that was headed south on the ladder. The overall statistics of the game with the Cowboys were very tight, showing the Eels managed to turn it on when they needed to, whilst also being helped by the off-day goal kicking by Val Holmes (2/4). After coming off consecutive losses to the Tigers and Raiders, this was a much-needed boost for the Eels’ chances at making the top 8.
The Dolphins struggled last week, going down 28-14 to the Broncos. Whilst the result was a tough one for the Dolphins, the loss of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, who went down with a hamstring injury after only 20 minutes, made the loss that much tougher to bare. The Broncos took advantage, scoring five tries in 26 minutes either side of half time to blow the Dolphins out of the water. With the Hammer likely to miss a few weeks, and the continued losses of Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler, and Felise Kaufusi, the Dolphins could be struggling for a few weeks to come.
Match Preview
The Dolphins and Eels met once last season, again at a “neutral site”, playing out their round 17 matchup at Sunshine Coast Stadium in Bokarina. The Eels spanked the Dolphins 48-20, pouring on seven unanswered tries in the first half to blow the Dolphins off the park. The Eels closed 6.5-point favourites, with the spread never in doubt. The total closed 46.5, with the Eels covering it by themselves.
The Eels opened as 2.5-point favourites for this clash prior to last weekend’s games, and have obviously taken on money this week, pushing them up to 8.5-point favourites. Obviously, the Eels at -2.5 was a great bet if you got on early in the week, but with that number no longer available, we must make the decision on whether this number has moved too far. Objectively, I think this number has moved about the right amount. The numbers would suggest that without several starting players, the Dolphins would be considered about a 6–8-point worse team. Subjectively, I lean towards the Eels here. They will be confident after their last start win, and the Dolphins will struggle to match the strength of the Eels forward pack.
As for the total, it opened 44.5 and it has stayed there throughout the week. I would lean towards an over in the game, however with so many star attacking players out, I’m leaving this alone. The Eels team total (25.5) is also a consideration, but I’m not convinced Brown and Asi can get the Eels to 26.
I have concerns over the Dolphins this week and believe the Eels should be a consideration as a leg in any multi you place this weekend. If the Eels can get things going in attack, I like them to once again put the Dolphins to the sword here. The Dolphins have lost two games this season, and in both games, they have lost by 13+. We will have a crack at the better odds at the Eels to win by 13+ here.
Same Game Multi
J Isaako (1+ try) – The Eels left edge has been leaking tries this season, and with one of the premier right-side wingers coming up against them, expect a try for Isaako here.
W Penisini (1+ try) – Just the one try this season for Penisini. Expect the barnstorming centre to get across the line against the porous left side Dolphins defence.
Eels ML – See above, the Eels should win comfortably.
SGM Odds: $7.76 at Neds
