Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Cranbourne, Warwick Farm and Belmont on Wednesday, September 19th.
All three tracks are rated in the Good range – the rail at Cranbourne is out 9m; the rail is in the True position at Warwick Farm; and out 14m at Belmont.
We’ve gone through all three meetings and selected a few of the races to bet in below!
BEST BETS
Best Bet: Cranbourne Race 4 #9 Fifth Amendment
Best Value Bet: Warwick Farm Race 8 #7 Smooth Whiskey
CRANBOURNE TIPS
RACE 4
Was originally keen on Lagerfield here but with him scratched from the race, it leaves me with (9) Fifth Amendment on top. He comes off a strong win on debut at Bairnsdale where he led all the way ton win by 2L and we will get a good guide on that form through Polanco in Race 2, who ran 3rd to Fifth Amendment in that race. Should be able to find the lead here and with the rail out 9m, should be hard to run down.
(9) Fifth Amendment
$2.70
RACE 5
Open race but happy to have something each way on (7) Big Pat’s Pontiac. He hasn’t shown much in his first two runs back from a spell but he rarely does – he’s had eight starts when first or second up for just the one minor placing. His third up record is much better, with a win and a 2nd placing from two starts. He’s also got a good record at the distance and did win his only start at this track and distance. Drawn well and can run an improved race.
Each way
(7) Big Pat's Pontiac
$6.00
RACE 7
Good race for a Wednesday at Cranbourne and it looks a battle between the top two in the market. (4) I Did It Again is a very talented horse on his day. He didn’t quite deliver last preparation on the promise he showed early in his career but he ran well without any luck first up in a strong race at Geelong and can win this second up today. Drawn better in barrier 2 and his best would win this. (9) Grey Shadow the obvious danger after a luckless first up run at Caulfield.
WARWICK FARM TIPS
RACE 4
Not much of a price about (4) High Bridge here but if he produces anything like his first up win at Canterbury then he’ll be winning this. He was a Listed winner over jumps in Europe so it was surprising to see him sharp enough to win as well as he did first up over 1900m, which was also his first run in Australia. The weight shouldn’t worry him as he only rises 1kg and the rise in distance should only play further into his hands. The only concern would be if he struck a bit of second-up-syndrome and was flat from the first up run, but he really does look very hard to oppose in this field.
RACE 7
Two that I’m sticking with in this field. (2) Excelsior was a dominant winner over this track and distance two starts ago and was good again last start when finishing 3rd in Saturday grade at Rosehill over 1800m. Back in trip to the mile today and although he won’t get as cosy a run as he did two starts ago, he should still take plenty of beating. (3) Mo The Great was first up from an eight week break last time out and he had no luck, sitting three wide the trip on speed. Worth forgiving him for that and I’ll give him another go at double figure odds here.
Value: (3) Mo The Great $13 Sportsbet
RACE 8
Competitive way to finish the card. Backing the two Waller horses, (4) Andaz and (7) Smooth Whiskey. Andaz was very well backed first up on the Heavy track at Rseohill, after winning his only barrier trial leading into this preparation. He failed on the Heavy ground but Bowman goes on today and the firmer ground could bring about some sharp improvement. Given how well backed he was first up, I think he’s worth backing again today (could be his last chance) from the good draw. Smooth Whiskey has never won first up before from five starts, which is obviously some concern, but he did go close first up last preparation and he’s trialed well leading into today. James McDonald is a notable jockey booking for Waller. Double figure odds appeals.
Value: (7) Smooth Whiskey $10 Sportsbet
BELMONT TIPS
RACE 1
(1) Light My Day is an odds-on chance here and he looks super hard to beat. He comes off a maiden win at this track and distance two weeks ago, where he led all the way. He should be able to find the front again today and with the rail out 14m, he’ll take plenty of beating. Carries 59kg but the bottom weight is only 55.5kg so there relaly isn’t a great disadvantage being topweight.
RACE 5
Competitive race but there’s two I’m interested in. (5) Fraternize goes on top. He’s first up from a spell here and his first up record currently reads three starts for a win and two 2nds. Has won a trial leading into today’s race and looks to get a great run from barrier 4. The slight query is whether the 1000m will be a touch short given both his wins have come over 1200m, but I’m willing to find out with $4.60 available. (2) Dam Ready comes into today third up with blinkers back on and back onto firm ground. He hasn’t shown much in his first two WA starts but today could be the day he improves sharply.
Value: (2) Dam Ready $9.50 Neds
RACE 7
Another competitive race but it looks a very nice set up for (6) Mycroft. He’s yet to place from three starts at the track but his first two runs back this preparation have both been good and the step up to 1650m looks ideal now. Back onto firm ground is a plus and barrier 3 is ideal. He finds a winnable race.
