Super Saturday in the NRL continues with two teams on the outside looking in, as the Warriors head to Townsville to take on the Cowboys, with the winner a chance at sneaking into the top 8 at the end of round 14. This should be an intriguing contest between two evenly matched teams.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 14 Preview & Betting Tips
North Queensland Cowboys vs New Zealand Warriors
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Friday 8th June, 5:30pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Cowboys managed a huge come-from-behind win last weekend, as they defeated the Roosters 18-16 after trailing 16-4 after 53 minutes. It was a massive upset, as the Cowboys won on the road after closing 16.5-point underdogs to a Roosters team that had been playing some unbelievable football. Scott Drinkwater was sensational, taking the game by the scruff of the neck after the Cowboys were missing several stars due to Origin, scoring a try, breaking the line three times, setting up another try, busting 10 tackles, and kicking three goals.
As for the Warriors, they had a much-needed bye last week, with their last game being a 24-20 win over the Dolphins in round 12. After winning two in a row, and now getting a host of players back for this matchup, the Warriors will come into this week full of confidence. Shaun Johnson is still out, but with the way Te Maire Martin has played in his absence, the Warriors should be fine.
Match Preview
First, let’s look at how these teams are affected by Origin. The travelling Warriors have no concerns coming out of Wednesday night, as they had zero players involved in the matchup. The Cowboys, however, are in a different position. The Cowboys had six players involved in Game 1, and they were all heavily involved, with all playing the full 80 except for Reuben Cotter (69). Like last year, coach Todd Payten has named all his Origin stars on an extended bench, and given the position the Cowboys are in, I expect most, if not all to back up. The Cowboys were brilliant after Origin last season, winning all three of their games by an aggregate score of 95-34.
These teams met twice last season, with the Warriors getting the chocolates on both occasions. In round 3, they travelled to Townsville as 11.5-point underdogs, before winning 26-12 in dominant fashion. Just a month later, the Cowboys headed across the ditch as 1.5-point favourites. Once again, the Warriors caused the upset, winning 22-14, in a game the Cowboys should have won given the statistics.
As for this week, the Cowboys opened 4.5-point favourites, with decent money coming in on the Warriors to where the number now sits at 3.5. This is right on my number, and without knowing exactly who will back up from Origin, I don’t see any value in spread betting for this game.
The total opened a high 50.5 points, with unders money starting to come in throughout the week, with the under now heavily juiced, or the number down between 48.5 and 49.5. I fully agree with the move, and make a fair total 46.5, therefore seeing value in the under. The Cowboys are a heavy overs team though, with 69% of their games hitting the over. The Warriors, conversely, are a heavy unders team, with 67% of their matchups going under this season.
So, I will take the under as my best bet here, with the likelihood of the Cowboys possibly being down some troops assisting. If the Cowboys are close to full strength, this should be a tight game, and a bet of either team to win by margin betting is something worth looking into.
It’s the time of season to keep your powder dry, so we keep betting small until Origin is behind us.
Under 50.5 points
$1.83 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Either team to win by (1-12) – As above, I believe these teams are about as evenly matches as it gets, lending me to believe this should be tight throughout.
D Watene-Zelezniak (1+ try) – DWZ has 6 tries this season and is well behind his efforts from last season. However, he would have gained a lot of confidence from his efforts two weeks ago when playing fullback. Expect the flying perm to get across the line here.
B Burns (1+ try) – Burns has been great in his limited time at the Cowboys, scoring three tries in two games, whilst averaging 183 metres per game. The Warriors concede 43% of their tries on the left, where Burns will be attacking this game.
SGM Odds: $5.07 at Neds
