There are some big games this weekend in the NRL, but this could very well be the biggest. Not only are their massive top 4 and top 8 implications surrounding this result, but this is quickly becoming one of the biggest rivalries in rugby league. The high-flying Broncos will head north to take on the Cowboys, who look to bounce back from their first loss since the end of May, in a massive Saturday afternoon matchup.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to check out our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Saturday 5th August, 3:00pm (AEST)
As mentioned earlier, the Cowboys are coming off their first loss in quite some time, going down 22-13 to the Titans. A let down was always possible, given the level of football the Cowboys have been playing at for such a long time now. The Cowboys were undisciplined throughout the matchup with the Titans, and I’d be very surprised if they aren’t a vastly improved outfit this weekend against the Broncos. 47 missed tackles, 9 errors, 9 penalties conceded, and a sinbin would not have gone down well with Todd Payten, and I expect the Cowboys to be far more efficient against the Broncos.
The Broncos won their fourth in a row last Thursday night, as they hammered the Roosters 32-10 at the Gabba. The Broncos have flipped the switch since Origin, scoring at a 37.3 points per game clip in their past three games. They were dominant with the ball and defensively against the Roosters, however coach Kevin Walters will want them to clean up their discipline this week, after making 11 errors last weekend.
The Broncos were slight 0.5-point favourites on the lookahead line prior to the completion of round 22, and after a poor performance by the Cowboys on Sunday afternoon, the Broncos have skipped out to 4.5-point favourites on the road in Townsville. The news has since been confirmed that centre Val Holmes will miss the remainder of the regular season, copping a 4-week ban for a high tackle last week. I make the Broncos a 2.5-point favourite, however with the loss of Val Holmes, the 2.5-4.5-point difference is far more volatile, given Holmes is the preferred kicker for the Cowboys.
As for the total, it opened at 42.5, and has been bet up to 43.5 at most books. I make a fair 44.5, however I am liking the over in this matchup. These teams have played a lot of unders this season, however with perfect conditions anticipated in Townsville on Sunday, there should be plenty of points on offer. Cowboys matches in Townsville this season have averaged 49.2 points per game, and that average explodes to 58.6 over the past 5 matches. With two superb attacking teams, I like the over here and will jump on before it bumps over 44.5.
Over 42.5 Total Points
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out!
Cowboys (+13.5) – This is a big bounce back spot for the Cowboys, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win in an upset. This line gives some insurance in the case the Broncos score a couple of late tries.
Murray Taulagi (1+ Try) – The Broncos right-side defence has leaked tries in their past few games to left side wingers, and Taulagi is as good a finisher as anyone. With the loss of Holmes on the left, the Cowboys will look to their representative winger for points on that side.
Kotoni Staggs (1+ Try) – Staggs has had a bounce back year in 2023, after being below his best last season. Staggs will get the chance to matchup with a backup centre (likely Brendan Elliott), and as such surely the Broncos will pepper that edge all night.
SGM Odds: $9.50 at Picklebet
