Game: Carlton Vs. North Melbourne (Friday, July 19th at 7.50pm – Etihad Stadium)
Market: AFL Fantasy Dream Team – Chris Judd Score Over/Under 91.5 points at Sportsbet
I would be staying away from match betting on Friday’s night’s game between the Carlton Blues and the North Melbourne Kangaroos. Both of these teams are just too volatile. We don’t know what we are going to get. The Kangaroos are better than Carlton, but they can’t hold onto leads and that’s well documented and Mick’s Blues know that, so they will be giving it a red hot crack.
While we won’t be betting on the outcome of the game, we will be having a look at one of the AFL Fantasy Dream Team betting markets. Specifically, the individual player score market involving champion Chris Judd.
There’s no doubt Juddy is getting old, but boy can he still play football. That is especially true over the last few weeks as Juddy is playing his best football of 2013.
Last week against St Kilda Juddy racked up 26 disposals, took five marks and kicked a goal. Good for 98 Dream Team (DT) points. The week before that, against Collingwood on a Friday night, Juddy had 29 touches and made five tackles, scoring 95 DT points. Three weeks back Juddy played against Sydney and had just 22 touches, but made an amazing nine tackles to finish with 92 DT points. With those kind of tackle stats, clearly the intensity is there for Juddy. He still cares about his football. Then, four weeks ago Juddy had one of his best games of the year with 29 disposals, four marks, five tackles, two frees for and kicking a goal – good for 114 DT points.
So to sum up what we just went through, Juddy’s last four rounds have seen him post DT scores of 98, 95, 92 and 114. His last five round average is 96.8 and the line for his individual player score this round is 91.5. So, will he be able to continue this form, or will he fall under the line of 91.5 for the first time in five weeks?
There are a few other factors to consider here. Firstly, he is playing North Melbourne and has had a pretty good run against them in recent times. This is especially true in 2012 when he scored a monster 147 DT points against them in Round 16. Another factor to consider is that Juddy has scored below 91 at Etihad stadium on just one occasion this year (86 in Round 8 against Port Adelaide).
One of the other things to take into account here is just how hungry Carlton is going to be this week. They finally got a win on the scoreboard last week after a tough run and now they have the notoriously dishevelled North Melbourne on a Friday night. Mick Malthouse knows they have every chance to beat the Kangaroos and he will be asking players like Juddy to really stand up and lead his team. There may be a couple of concerns if Marc Murphy misses the match like it has been whispered that Juddy will get a tag. I don’t think this will be the case and teams showed they won’t put a hard tag on Juddy this year in the weeks that Murphy was out with injury.
Verdict: Chris Judd is in great form at the moment, not falling under 91.5 DT points in any of the last four games. He will stand up on Friday night against the Roos and should be able to continue this trend in covering the individual player score line being offered at Sportsbet.
Take note: The above tip is simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
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