The third game on Saturday’s slate of football sees Collingwood hosting Brisbane in a Grand Final rematch. Will Brisbane jump back into the top four? Or will the reigning premiers keep their slim finals hopes alive?
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2024 AFL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs Brisbane
Saturday 4:35pm AEST, 17th August, MCG
With 16 minutes remaining last week, Collingwood looked destined to cause a major upset that would have them well and truly in the finals race with two weeks remaining in the season. However the Pies conceded five straight goals to go down by three points, which sees Collingwood a game outside of the eight with two weeks to go.
Given the Hawks and Blues have two easy games to round out the season, and the seventh placed Bulldogs will win at least one of their last two games, it’s difficult to see the reigning premiers feature in September.
Brisbane’s nine game winning streak was snapped by a rampant GWS outfit that kicked the last six goals of the game to run over the top of the most inform team in the league. The Lions led by 30 points at quarter time, but were left to rue poor kicking at goal as they kicked 8.16.
The Lions recorded 27 more marks, won contested possession by 19, inside 50’s by 6 and led for 107 minutes, in a loss that jeopardises their top four hopes. The Lions are two points outside of the top four, however will be favourites in their last two games against Collingwood and Essendon.
Although last week’s performance was disappointing, it’s important to note how good the Lions have been over the last few months. After a 4-6-1 start to the season, Brisbane are ranked 1st for kicks, 1st for marks, 1st for inside 50’s, 1st in clearances and 3rd in points for.
The Lions have the most elite scoring profile in the competition ranking 2nd for scores from kick ins, 2nd for scores in forward half, 3rd for scores from defensive half, 4th for scores from stoppages and 4th for scores from turnover.
The only score source or origin that Brisbane doesn’t rank in the top four, is scores from centre bounce. For comparison, Collingwood only ranks in the top eight for one of those categories (scores from forward half).
Match Prediction: These two sides play completely polar opposite brands of football, and are in opposite patches of form. Brisbane play a high possession brand of football, and dominate territory and clearance to enable that game style. Collingwood on the other hand play low possession and high pressure football, however it’s going to be hard for them to be able to create enough pressure if Brisbane can win clearances and play kick mark football.
Brisbane’s nine game winning streak came by an average winning margin of 31 points, and they won their only fixture at the G this season by 22 points. Brisbane’s brand is the antidote to how Collingwood play and it’s been shown this season that the Pies struggle to play against sides who win clearance and deny them the ability to create pressure.
Brisbane -10.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Lachie Neale 30+ Disposals: Neale has been in excellent form as Brisbane have surged towards the top four, recording 30+ disposals in four of his last six games. The reigning Brownlow Medalist loves playing Collingwood, with his last five home & away games against the Pies producing performances of 35, 31, 22, 33 and 31 disposals.
Josh Daicos 25+ Disposals: After a largely quiet season coming off a best & fairest in a premiership season, Josh Diacos is beginning to find some form. Daicos has averaged 26 disposals per game over his last three games, including a team high 26 disposal performance last week against the Swans.
Joe Daniher 2+ Goals: Joe Daniher has been one of the most crucial pieces to Brisbane’s strong second half of the season, kicking 25 goals since 13 - five more goals than he kicked in the opening 11 games of the season. Daniher has kicked multiple goals in 11 of his last 12 games.
SGM Odds: $4.60 at BoomBet
