Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for twilight racing at Caulfield on Wednesday, January 17th.
We have an eight-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail out 12m. As always at Caulfield, it will be handy to be up on speed, especially with the rail out that far.
We have tips and comments for every race below.
Best Bet: Race 3 Persian Empire
Best Value: Race 7 Strategic Spin EW
Going with one of the debutantes here to kick off the card. MASUTA has jumped out nicely at Caulfield leading into today, showing a good turn of foot on more than one occasion. Unsure where it gets to from barrier 14 but there’s a few with plenty of exposed form here so happy to take the gamble at $5. VIBRATO gets the blinkers on first time here after running 3rd at Warrnambool first up. Barrier 2 some concern given where it ended up from the same draw last start. CHAOS BALL could lead and be very hard to run down if he does find the top. SPIRIT OF AQUADA was too bad to be true last start and came out of a good form race prior to that. TWILIGHT SONG has jumped out fairly at Flemington.
Interesting little race. Following my money here with LUCKY CAT, who we backed on debut when winning at Bendigo and went with her again in a Saturday race at Caulfield 10 days ago. She finished well back in the field on that occasion but she drops back to Wednesday grade here and can atone for that run. The value could be CARIBBEAN PEARL, who backed up a nice trial with a solid first up win at Warrnambool, winning by 2L despite sitting wide all race. Barrier 1 here is a positive and $10 looks appealing. STYLISH MISSILE is first up from a spell here and was a winner on debut last prep. Ethan Brown riding for Aaron Purcell is a strong combination. DAMASCUS DANE won easily first up at Geelong and can go on with it here. INDRABEEL the blowout. Backing Lucky Cat with something small on Caribbean Pearl and Stylish Missile.
TIP: Lucky Cat / Caribbean Pearl EW
A few I like here. PERSIAN EMPIRE clearly goes on top. Bolted in to break its maiden over 17800m at Sale two starts back before running 2nd at Moonee Valley over 2040m last time out. Short break between runs and back to the mile here suits from the good draw. Williams to ride and finds a winnable race. The value could be RANSOM MONEY who won two starts back before finishing midfield in stronger grade last start. Should roll forward from the wide gate and the claim for Ethan Brown helps. $7.50 appeals. HELIX PARK another to include at double figure odds after a somewhat luckless run behind Tagreeda last time out. LA VOLT next best.
TIP: Persian Empire / Ransom Money EW
Two I’m keen on here. SILENT GENERAL had a luckless run last start when checked and held up at crucial stages of the straight. Blinkers on for the first time here and up to 2000m for the first time. Lane takes the ride and looks hard to beat. BEDFORD looks a big chance stepping up to 2000m. He’s another that was a touch unlucky last start but hit the ground strongly and will relish the rise in distance. He might get a far way back from barrier 10 which is the obvious concern. EUREKA STREET has had three runs back from a spell and should be ready to do something. DANGLE LAD and SAVVY DRESSER others to consider.
TIP: Silent General
Very competitive race. Having a throw at the stumps with two at longer odds here. DEECEMBER was good first up when running 2nd to Judges at Warrnambool and with the lightweight and good draw should be able to give this a shake second up from a spell. Sister Kitty Mac was back in 3rd in that race, and that horse beat Alaskan Sun at the Valley last month, so with Alaskan Sun at $4.80 and Deecember at $8 I’d rather be on the latter. FOR A SONG will burn forward from the wide gate and that could be the place to be with the rail out 12m. Continues to run consistently well, gets a weight swing on Deconi and should give a bold sight in the lead at $9. DOC’S HERO was just fair first up but can improve second up tonight. JOCASTA, LE RENARDE and ALASKAN SUN all have claims in an open race.
TIP: Deecember EW / For A Song EW
CHIPPENHAM is knocking on the door for a win and finds a very winnable race here. Went close in a similar race behind Simply Splashing at Sandown last start and gets similar conditions here, with Tahlia Hope once again taking the ride from an inside barrier. We’ll need a bit of luck at some stage but this isn’t the strongest field. CEYLON was a good first up winner at Cranbourne but I always query Cranbourne form coming into city races, even if it is a BM70 on a Wednesday. Awkward draw means it will get a long way back. BON ROCKET comes out of the same race behind Chippenham last start and I was particularly keen on it that day. Didn’t really get every chance so prepared to forgive that run and if it can get clear air a bit earlier it can give this a real shake at each way odds. JEST FOR THE ROAD is one to include at double figure odds. Won first up at Seymour and typically improves second up. LIGHT ‘N’ FIRE is edging closer to a win.
TIP: Chippenham / Bon Rocket EW
Another nice competitive race. Interested in playing one at huge odds here. STRATEGIC SPIN won first up and has since put in two duck-eggs, but he hasn’t had much go right in either of them. He’s since been back to the trials and won, and gets the blinkers back on for today’s race. If he can roll forward he may give a big sight at $41. This is the last chance for WRITTEN IN STONE, who I’ve been with all prep. I was prepared to sack him today but he meets BOORADLEY better at the weights from a 1L defeat last start on a track that had a monorail and it was incredibly hard to run down leaders. $7.50 today and if he doesn’t win today he’s sacked. TOOSBUY was terrible last start but got no peace up front. Prior to that he gave MISSILE BOOM a cold at Mornington, and that horse then came out and won its next start. They both line up here, expecting a much better showing from Toosbuy at good odds. LAUCHETTI not out of the equation, while BORD DE GAIN was truckloaded last start and didn’t deliver. Keep an eye on him.
TIP: Written In Stone / Strategic Spin EW
Going with Waller and Oliver to end the day with ISLE OF CAPRI here, who comes off a Newcastle maiden win up in New South Wales. I typically always take on that kind of form when heading to city races, but Waller has a good record of sending these types of horses down to Melbourne and getting them to be very competitive in metro races. Drawn well and third up from a spell, should go well at $5. Prepared to give SENSATION ALLY one more chance today at $9. She ran 2nd to Life On The Wire first up before running flat second up, but she always does that. Expected her to run well last start but she was slightly disappointing, though she was a $21 shot. The form out of all her races this prep have been very strong, with Sharing coming out of her last race to win last weekend. Expecting improvement from HELLO MY DEAR third up from a spell as well. Always takes a couple of runs to come good before showing up at his third run back, so should improve today. POP QUEEN is in good form but draws wide and has all its best form at Mornington. The chances don’t end there!
TIP: Isle Of Capri / Sensation Ally EW
2, 6, 10, 11, 12
1, 2, 3, 11, 13
1, 8, 11, 13, 14, 15
5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12
$100 = 11.11%
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