Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday, April 8th

Racing returns to Caulfield this weekend for a nine-race card featuring the Listed Galilee Series Final for the three-year-olds over 2400m. The track is currently a Good 3 with the rail in the True position for the entire circuit.

We have betting tips below for every race on the card.

CAULFIELD RACING TIPS

Race 1

We kick off with a really nice two-year-old race here. There are four here that could win without surprising, but I'm quite interested in GIVE who is way over the odds at $9.50 fixed with UBET. On debut he settled back in the field and was held up at the 250m mark before charging home to just miss by a nose. The horse that beat him then ran 2nd to Merchant Navy who is set to run in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes in Sydney. So I think the form is good, and my only query would be that his debut was on a Soft 6 and he is set to run on a much firmer track here. Happy to have something on at the odds however. PLUTOCRACY is the one they have to beat. He scored dominantly on debut in Adelaide and he will box seat from the rails draw. BANISH is first up from a spell after finishing 2nd to One More Honey on debut. one More Honey has since won a Group race in Sydney so the form is strong. SHAMAR next best after a solid debut win. Happy to back GIVE here but Plutocracy the one to beat.

Tip: Give EW (Best Value)

Race 2

Really tricky race. Going to have a nibble on a couple here at decent odds. OVERBERG is on target to win this. He won first up in what's turned out to be a strong form race, before finishing 4th in the Mildura Cup last start. However, he always needs his second up run (he's never placed in three second up runs) but has shown before he bounces back at his third up run. So up in distance, third up from a spell, down in grade and with just 58kg after the claim, he looks a good chance here. KHUTULUN it the other runner I'm keen to have something on eachway. She does her best racing at this track having only ever missed a place once from seven starts. She comes off a 3rd placing in the Benalla Cup which was on Soft ground, so she is much better suited on the firm going here (all six wins have been on Good tracks). Gets the in-form apprentice on and I think at the $13 odds she's worth backing. MR CHURCHILL is running consistently well, having finished in the top 3 at all six starts this prep, with his last two being wins. From the inside draw he'll be box seat and he'll have every chance once again. ROCKSTAR REBEL is ready to peak third up from a spell but I'm prepared to take him on at the odds. YACHT CLUB isn't a $67 shot. She won her first two starts before running 3rd in BM70 grade two starts ago. Hokkaido came out of that race and won his next start so the form has held up. Forget her last run in Group 2 company when she was way out of her grade. She is the blowout.

Tip: Overberg / Khutulun EW

Race 3

Leaning towards the favourite TOFFEE NOSE here purely due to barriers and mapping. She comes out of some strong form races behind the likes of Mr Sneaky, Theanswermyfriend and Oregon's Day, and is simply weighted to win this with just 54kg. Barrier 2 should allow her a dream run behind the leaders and she only has to run up to her past couple of efforts to win this. I thought the $3 was about right and wouldn't want to go much shorter. I would have been very keen on SEQUOIA LADY had she not drawn barrier 14. Her form is also very strong with a nice debut effort behind subsequent Group 1 winner Montoya's Secret followed up by a dominant win at Pakenham last start. If she drew a gate I'd be all over her but she'll get a long way back from 14. The horse that is way over the odds is STAR PATRIOT who comes up at $31 which I can't understand. Two starts ago she ran 3rd to Montoya's Secret before a seriously good run in the Mornington Guineas last start. She should get a good run in midfield from the barrier and I expect her to certainly outrun her price. The only concern is Froggy on board.

Tip: Toffee Nose / Star Patriot EW

Race 4

Really quite a disgusting race this, with a severe lack of quality. WINE BUSH comes down from Sydney purely to get back onto the dry tracks. He's been running in some very strong form races in Sydney but it's hard to get a gauge on how he's actually going given he's struggled on wet tracks recently. He's at a distance that suits him and on to a rock hard track so if he can't perform today he's got no excuses. Really should be winning this but I can't jump in to him at $4.50. FONTEIN LAD ran well last start after being caught three-wide the entire trip and still only going down by 0.4L. Steps out to 2400m now and gets the gun draw so he'll be around the mark. MISS STRATHALLAN looks to be crying out for this distance and if you ignore her last run her form looks pretty reasonable. Last start she was just caught way too far back at an on-pace favoured Moonee Valley track. She might get back from the gate again but the extra distance brings her into this. Hesitantly leaning her way but not a confident race.

Tip: Miss Strathallan

Race 5

Pretty keen on the chances of CRYSTAL DREAMER first up from a spell here. Has never finished outside the top two from three starts when first up, has finished in the top two four times from five starts over the distance, has won at the track, gets in with just 52kg after the claim and maps to get a relatively easy lead. $4.40 is more than acceptable. Expecting a big run from THERMAL CURRENT who is heavily back in grade after failing in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate. Previous to that he was flying and he's got a phenomenal record over this distance. Gets in well with the claim and no surprise to see him win this. Big watch on MALIBU STYLE who is from the same stable as Ellicazoom and has his first run in Melbourne. I think he'll be better at his second and third runs back from a spell but he's drawn to get a good run. Taking on Gun Case and Demonstrate.

Tip: Crystal Dreamer

Race 6

Tough race with a number of winning hopes here. HEAR THE CHANT comes off a strong win against her own sex and probably still has some room for improvement given this is only her third run back from a break. She's a group 3 winner over the track and distance and with the claim she gets in with a winnable weight. KEN'S DREAM should really be ready to win today after two 2nds to open his campaign. He draws well today and should be ready to peak. He has no excuses today. FALCOOL is slightly over the odds. He beat ken's Dream first up and had absolutely no luck at the Valley last start. With the plum draw and the 3kg claim there's no reason he can't win this at $9.50. VERSTAPPEN should be better suited around a bend today and despite being up in grade he can run a big race. Draws to get the box seat run. ALTER CALL is first up from a spell. She beat subsequent Group 2 winner Oak Door last prep and had a good jump out leading into this. Draws well and can fire fresh. TOY BOY comes off a strong maiden win in good time and can measure up at double figure odds. Extremely tough to work this one out, backing both Ken's Dream and Falcool.

Tip: Ken's Dream / Falcool EW

Race 7

This race could go a few different ways depending on the rides. The best ride could well win the race. I've got FRENCH EMOTION on top but I'd be significantly more confident with any other jockey on board. Newitt is a big negative, but he'll do well to stuff it up from barrier 1. Her last two runs in Melbourne have both been runner up finishes to Group 1 winner I Am A Star. Waller said she is simply a better horse when running the Melbourne direction and her form would suggest that's true. I don't see the extra 200m being an issue and if Newitt gives her every chance I think she'll win. GREAT ESTEEM could be the biggest danger. He was huge in the Cranbourne Cup and ran another good race in Listed company in Adelaide last start. Gets in well after the claim and just needs a good ride from the draw. Look for improved runs from HAZZABEEL and ADIRONDACK.

Tip: French Emotion

Race 8

HANS HOLBEIN looks the best bet of the day here. Produced a dominant win when we suspected he was ready to do so last start but he did it more comfortably than anyone expected. Steps up from BM84 to Open company here but he drops 6kg in weight and there's absolutely no reason he can't dominate this field. BOOM TIME will be thereabouts after reasonable runs in the Australian Cup and Mornington Cup. Gets a good run from the barrier and the claim will help. ANGEOLOGY continues to race well this prep and I expect he will do so once again here, while LUCQUES looks the value in the race at double figure odds. He gets out to a distance that will suit him now and should be nearing peak fitness at his fourth run back from a spell.

Tip: Hans Holbein (Best Bet)

Race 9

We were all over LAKE COMO last start when she bolted in by 3 lengths at $11 but I'm taking her on today as this is a very different race. She is undefeated first up but she's not as good second up and she's not as good at Caulfield as she is at Flemington. She also drops back from 1200m to 1100m here and although she may well win, I am prepared to take her on here. ATMOSPHERICAL produced a huge first up run last campaign in Group 3 company over this course and distance and a repeat of that effort would surely see her go close here. One horse I am interested in at value is GREY STREET who is impossible to catch but I think the time to be on her is first up from a spell like she is here. She's won two from three when first up and was strong in her most recent jumpout. Has gone well previously at the track and gets in with just 52kg after the claim. Will need luck from barrier 1 but prepared to have a crack at the $10. 

Tip: Grey Street EW