Carlton have won four on the spin and will surely make it five when they take on West Coast at Marvel Stadium on Saturday. The Blues will be eyeing off a big percentage boost as they continue their quest for an elusive finals berth. We’ll look to get creative to find some value in the betting markets for this one-sided affair.
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AFL Round 19 Preview & Betting Tips
Carlton vs West Coast
Saturday 2:10pm AEST, July 22nd, Marvel Stadium
The second fixture on Super Saturday in Round 19 takes place at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne with Carlton playing hosts to West Coast. It looms as the most one-sided matchup of the round, with the Blues currently listed as 10-goal favourites.
Carlton pulled off their best win of the season last weekend which sent fans into delirium. They came up against a Port Adelaide outfit that were riding a 13-match win streak, yet the Blues were able to get on top from the outset and record an emphatic 50-point wire-to-wire victory on their home deck.
The Blues have now won four on the spin and a big reason for that is their increased efficiency going inside 50. They’ve scored 120, 112, 98, and 122 points across their past four matches for an average of 113 points per contest. It’s a stark contrast to their four matches prior where they averaged just 51.
Meanwhile, West Coast enter Round 19 on a disgraceful 15-match losing streak. It’s been a horror season on all front for the Eagles, with very little positives to take from it thus far.
The Eagles have shown a little bit of fight in their last two home matches where they’ve lost by eight points (vs St Kilda) and 38 points (vs Richmond), but they’ll be on the road this weekend where their recent form has been nothing short of embarrassing.
In their last four away matches the Eagles have scored 35, 34, 52, and 26 points, and this weekend they face the Blues who are playing with a point to prove and a top eight spot in their sights.
The Eagles total points line is currently set at 59.5 and recent results tell us that number is just far too high. I simply can’t see the Eagles kicking 10+ goals against this current version of Carlton.
West Coast (Team Total) Under 59.5
$1.85 (2 Units)
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Carlton 40+ – Just can’t see how the Eagles keep this one close. Their away form is horrible and the Blues are flying.
Jesse Motlop 2+ Goals – Was a late in last week and made the most of his opportunity with four goals. Look for him to have another big game against the Eagles.
Oscar Allen 1+ Goals – What a season he’s having with such limited opportunity as a forward for the worst team in the competition. He’s kicked a goal in every match this season.
Sam Docherty 25+ Disposals – Cripps and Cerra out will likely mean Docherty will play a bit more in the midfield. He’s a natural accumulator and should reach 25 touches here.
SGM Odds: $3 at BoomBet
