AFL Round 5 continues on Saturday with a massive four-game slate for fans and punters to dive into. Second up on the schedule is a matchup between two clubs on opposite ends of the ladder. It’s the 4-0 Blues taking on the 0-4 Crows at Marvel Stadium, and we have a full betting preview for the fixture below!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Carlton vs Adelaide
Saturday 4:35pm AEST, April 13th, Marvel Stadium
Somehow still undefeated in season 2024, Carlton enter Round 5 with a 4-0 record. Their 50-point win against the young and rebuilding Kangaroos aside, the Blues have won their games by margins of 1, 5, and 10. Amazingly, they’re now 9-0 in games decided by 10 points or less since the start of last year.
Most recently the Blues were able to overcome a late deficit against the Dockers in Gather Round to finish 73-63 winners. They looked almost certain to suffer their first defeat of the season, but some heroic individual efforts in the dying stages coupled with a couple of dodgy umpiring decisions ensured they remain unblemished.
In total contrast, Adelaide simply haven’t found a way to win so far this campaign as they come into Saturday’s fixture at 0-4. Not only have they been losing, but the Crows haven’t really been a winning chance in any of their games to date, even in Round 1 where they left their comeback until too late.
Strangely enough it’s been on offence where the Crows have struggled mightily so far this season. They were ranked in the top two in the competition for points per game a year ago at 95.3, but are currently scoring at a rate of just 57 per game in 2024. Some of this comes down the poor form of the keys in Walker and Fogarty, but a lot of it is due to their horrible kicking inside 50, and captain Jordan Dawson is one of the main culprits, as he’s currently rated as the worst kick in the AFL.
Despite their obvious struggles in the middle, the Crows coaching staff have barely made any adjustments to their mix in the engine room. The only slight adjustment was providing Jake Soligo more centre bounce attendances last start, and he was arguably their best on ground with his 27 disposals and eight clearances.
Match prediction: With Carlton sitting at 4-0 and Adelaide 0-4, it’s no surprise to see the Blues listed as the clear favourites to secure another win. However, recent history does side with the Crows as they’ve won each of their last two encounters, although both of those were at Adelaide Oval. Perhaps more relevant is the fact that the Blues have won each of their last two meetings at Marvel Stadium.
The Crows have been arguably the most disappointing side in 2024 but they’ve still avoided being blown out. Their biggest defeat through four games was by 35 points against the Dockers. On the other hand, the Blues have been the masters of the close finish as mentioned above. With all of that considered, taking the Blues to win in the 1-39 range seems to be the best play.
Carlton 1-39
$2.07 (1 Unit)
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Charlie Curnow 4+ Goals – Not many teams have a good matchup for this man and the Crows certainly don’t. Too mobile for the likes of Keane and Butts and too strong for the rest. He should hit the scoreboard frequently.
Jordan Dawson 25+ Disposals – If there’s one team Dawson loves playing against it’s the Blues. 25+ in three straight against them and will be desperate to lead his side strongly.
Blake Acres 20+ Disposals – As consistent as they come and loves playing at Marvel. Has recorded 20+ disposals in five straight games at the venue and remains juicy odds.
SGM Odds: $5.25 at BoomBet
