Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the midweek meeting at Canterbury on Wednesday, October 4th.
The track is rated a Good 3 with the rail in the true position for the eight-race card. A very firm track at Canterbury will typically favour front runners so it’s probably better to be up on speed rather than out the back.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below. You can also check out our Geelong Racing Tips here!
CANTERBURY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 Marsupial
Best Value: Race 7 Best Guess
Race 1
Waller looks to have this race in his keeping with the top two in the market. KAONIC was absolutely smashed in early betting on debut before drifting right out late. He finished 3rd, beaten 1.4L and wasn’t fully tested to the line. Looks to get a great run from barrier 4 here and no surprise to see him break the maiden here. At the prices I’m leaning towards the stablemate SMILING MANOLITO with Hugh Bowman taking the ride. Bowman rarely rides a second-elect horse in a race for Waller with Schofield riding the better chance. This horse ran well on debut at Newcastle without a great deal of luck and comes straight to midweek city grade here. Draws well in barrier 3 and we’re getting $3.60 as opposed to $1.80 for Kaonic. It’s not a race I’ll be betting heavily in, if at all, but at those prices I’ll lean to Bowman’s mount. DELOS can improve back onto a firm track. Expect him to lead.
TIP: Smiling Manolito
Race 2
Relatively keen to take on DORTMUND here as favourite. He comes into this on the one-week back-up and I expect them to lead with him today, but he wasn’t good last Wednesday and the race he won in Melbourne two starts ago is hardly good form for a Sydney race. The fact he was so bad last week after being so good the start before worries me and suggests the form from the Melbourne race won’t stand up. The only way I see him turning it around is if they lead on him like they did in Melbourne. Box seating may not be the best way to ride him. The two I’ll be on are CALYPSO BAY and MATE STORY. Calypso Bay was only fair first up but he always tends to improve sharply second up, as evidenced by his 3.3L win over this track and distance second up last prep. My worry is that he arguably should have won first up last prep, so his form going into his second up run was already good, whereas this prep his first up run was only fair. Bowman takes the ride from the good gate though, so he should have every chance. MATE STORY resumed from a spell and they used a change of tactics by leading on him, the same tactics they used with success last prep. He ran well in this sort of grade second up last prep over 1600m, so if they lead again today he can be in the finish at decent odds. ROGUE MISSILE and CARLUCA next best.
TIP: Calypso Bay / Mate Story EW
Race 3
Tough race with nothing really standing out at all. CEDARWOOD comes off a luckless run at Wyong but drops in trip and rises in weight and class so happy to be against it here. SOLAR PATCH has been running consistently well this prep behind some good horses. He’s bumped into Shogun Sun, Super Ex and Demerara in his past three starts – all of which would be hot favourites if they lined up in this race. RENEWAL won nicely on debut at Newcastle in a small field. Barrier 1 again today but the query is whether he will be able to come from worse than midfield on a track that may favour leaders. ZA ZI BA broke through last start but takes on the boys today. The stable is flying though. BULL MARKET won first up last prep and comes out of a trial behind Slow Burn, while STAR SENSATION is also first up from a spell with four trials under the belt. He interests me at an each way price, particularly because Tim Clark is off Solar Patch to ride him here. At $6.50 that’s the way I’ll be playing.
TIP: Star Sensation EW
Race 4
Looks a race between HISTORY REPEATS and TOKEN OF LOVE on paper, but the tempo of this race could set it up for something coming from the back of the field. Both History Repeats and Token Of Love like to lead, but Waterhouse has another runner in the race which also tends to lead, so something like ROSETTAS WHEY will get the race run to suit. I think they’ll take a sit from barrier 1 with Token Of Love, and because I think it will get a nice run behind the speed, I think it’s a decent each way bet here at $4.60/$1.73. She’s placed in all three starts over track and distance, draws barrier 1 and gets the 3kg claim once again. History Repeats broke through over 1800m at Hawkesbury last start and gets Kerrin McEvoy on board today. She was $1.30 favourite last start so they may have led with her to just give her clear running, so we may see her revert back to taking a sit today. KIRINI and MIDNIGHT DELIGHT are two Waller runners that both rise sharply in trip, as does AUDACIOUS CHOICE.
TIP: Token Of Love
Race 5
MARSUPIAL looks one of the better bets on the card today. He was huge first up behind Tango Rain and Isorich, who have since gone on to quinella another Saturday race. He was slightly plain last start but he drops back from Saturday grade to midweek grade here and Bowman takes over for the ride. If he reproduces his first up run he wins here. OUR ROYAL EGYPTIAN is on the quick back-up after running 3rd last Wednesday at Rosehill. He’s got a great record on good ground and at the distance so with the good draw in barrier 6 and with McEvoy taking over for the ride, he could go close. STONEBROOK is undefeated from two starts at Kembla and Hawkesbury but will need to improve again to win this. Backing Marsupial hard with a saver on Our Royal Egyptian.
TIP: Marsupial
Race 6
Another tough race. Interested in two here. ZAUKONIG is ready to win after a good run last start in Saturday grade behind two very handy horses in Alward and Up ‘N’ Rolling. That was over 2000m so he takes a slight drop in distance back to 1900m here. Goes up in weight but the form line is strong and the key today is the fact he will put himself right in the race up on the speed. The second horse I’ll be on is ANOTHER LARGA who beat ESTIKHRAAJ last start over this track and distance. Goes up 1.5kg in weight but even though the margin was a nose last start, he can win again because he’s drawn so well. Estikhraaj on the other hand is drawn poorly and will have to come from a long way back. EGYPTIAN RULER has had good market support in early betting but I have a massive query over the form from Port Macquarie. He was 60/1 and beaten 6L two starts ago in Saturday grade so I’ll be happy to take him on here. HOOF HUSSLER the big unknown.
TIP: Zaukonig / Another Larga EW
Race 7
Keen to back a couple and take on a couple here. I’ll be against the $3.10 favourite DISSOLUTE today after he was beaten first up as the short-priced favourite. I was against him that day because of his poor first up record and I’ll be against him today because he’s never placed from three second up runs. I’ll also be taking on KHAN. This horse was very impressive in winning the Breeder’s Plate on debut but has done nothing since. I thought his most recent trial was disappointing, and if he was back to his best then McEvoy or Bowman would be riding, not Angland. Keen to back WHITE MOSS. She was just fair first up last prep but she went on to shoot through the grades. She defeated the likes of Passage Of Time and Zonk so she’s got reasonable form and finds another winnable race here. The slight query is the 1100m maybe being a touch too short. The other I’ll be backing at $6.50 is BEST GUESS with McEvoy on for Waller. Won in similar grade over 1250m at this track last prep and resumes from a spell here with a really nice recent trial under his belt. Keen at the odds.
TIP: White Moss / Best Guess EW
Race 8
Good race! Excited to see the return of SLOW BURN and he goes on top. He produced a scintillating effort on debut too back up several good trials, but that was followed by two luckless losses. Returns from a spell here with two more good trials under his belt (the latest he won by 5.5L), and despite the wide draw he should go forward and be awfully hard to beat. MISSILE CODA drops in grade after travelling three-wide on the speed in Saturday grade last start. Bowman takes over from Adkins and based off what she did two starts ago she rates very highly. ACQUME put two wins together before bumping into subsequent Group 1 winner Alizee. Big drop back in grade here from Group 2 company to BM76 grade. Expect her to go well from the good draw. ISTRIA will improve with racing while VIENNA ROMANCE will be thereabouts as usual. Backing Slow Burn in a good race.
TIP: Slow Burn
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