Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Canterbury on Wednesday, May 27th.
The track is currently rated a heavy 9 with the rail in the 6m position. Canterbury tends to race on-pace but with plenty of cut in the ground it will be interesting to observe the early races to see how much ground can be made, and if the rail is the place to be.
Check out our preview and betting tips below.
Canterbury Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 27th
Best Bet: Race 5 - (8) Kirwin's Lane
Best Value: Race 4 - (5) Laila De Vega
Four scratchings here. (6) Zelify now finds a winnable race on debut after trialling fairly well at Rosehill on two occasions. She ran down Lady Banff in her most recent trial win, and even though Lady Banff was under a stranglehold, it's a pretty good form reference for a race like this. Bowman sticks with for race day and with a few scratchings, the race's depth has taken a bit of a hit. (9) Willinga Panache carries 53.5kg ater the claim for Louise Day and gets the blinkers on for the first time. She should go forward like they did last start and with race fitness on her side, she can run well at odds. (1) Ballistic Lover went down as the odds-on favourite at Wyong last start. Needs to improve on that but you have to respect the SP profile and the fact she was 0.7L off Macroura first up. (3) Angel Helena next best.
This race has copped a battering with eight scratchings, including the top four original selections I had. The Snowdens now have four of the nine runners in the race. Hugh Bowman takes the ride on (9) Oregon who's had a few trials over the space of six months. His last trial was his best one and that was his first trial since February, so clearly they've now got him ready. Expect him to run a big race on debut. (14) Sole Heir only trialled fairly but Waterhouse/Bott runners can often do that and then improve for race day. He should be leading this and will take plenty of catching.
(8) Vienna Rain returns from a spell as a gelding here and also gets a couple of gear changes, with the ear muffs off and the nose roll on. He's trialled three times leading into his first up run today and Nash Rawiller has been aboard in his past two, and sticks with for race day. He was tested up to 1800m last prep but I suspect they'll stick to shorter journeys this time around. The heavy ground is a bit of a query but he'll be up on speed and tough to run down. (3) Battleground is one of only two horses in the race that's raced on heavy ground, and the only horse to have won on it. He won that by 4.3L and that was his only career win so a return to this kind of ground could see him prove hard to beat. (2) Darleb and (4) Papal Warrior next best.
(5) Laila De Vega could bounce back today. She won two starts ago before sitting wide throughout the run last start and dropping out to finish last. She was also dropping in distance that day but steps back up to 1550m today. She's never finished out of the top two from four starts at the distance. She's also never finished out of the top two from four starts on soft ground, and although she ran poorly on heavy ground earlier this prep, I think that was more to do with her poor second up record. The blinkers go on for the first time today, Nash Rawiller goes on and she might be worth a bet at double figure odds. (12) Milunka resumes from 47 weeks off the track. While I think she's the one to beat, it won't be easy winning first up off such a long break on a heavy 9 track. (7) My Demetra should be around the mark, and the two Waterhouse/Bott runners (11) Smart Decision and (3) Whiskey Shooter can be included.
(5) Laila De Vega E/W
$11
Pretty keen on (8) Kirwin's Lane here. He's got a win and four 2nds from his past five starts and he probably should have won last start too. Even though they've all been on the provincials, I think he can measure up in town today and the wet ground should help him. His only win came on soft ground and he's yet to win from eight starts on good ground. He's also bred to handle the wet. Hugh Bowman is booked to ride today, replacing the likes of Jeff Penza nd Tom Sherry, so he gets a major jockey change. Looks hard to beat and I think he's a good bet at $4.40. (10) Emperor Harada is an out and out wet tracker. He's never run a place from 20 starts on good ground, yet has four wins from eight starts on wet ground. Have something on at $31 given it's a bog track today. (1) Monsieur Sisu likes wet ground and is undefeated from two starts at the track, while JMac jumps on (5) Moon Panther for Bjorn Baker.
Value: (10) Emperor Harada $31
(8) Monte Ditto looks a great each way bet here at $6.00. He's got a win and three placings from his past five starts at this track and he's really going to get conditions to suit today with the heavy ground. He's never won from 10 starts on good ground, but has two wins and a 2nd from three starts on soft ground. That indicates he should relish the heavy ground and given he's been going close on firm ground, he should be able to give this a real shake at a good price. (11) Vitesse has trialled well, albeit only once, leading into her first up run today. The wet ground is a query and her stats don't line up particularly well for this but her trial was good and JMac goes straight on. (4) Pinvincible gets blinkers on first time but the failure on heavy ground last start raises alarm bells.
(11) Dream Circle is racing well, with two wins and two placings from five starts this prep. He's gone down by a nose and a head in his past two starts, both at Warwick Farm. He gets conditions to suit him today - he's never won from nine starts on good ground and all three career wins hae come on wet tracks. He should be around the mark anyway but the wet track enhances his claims even further. (5) The Bald Eagle is a chance at blowout odds here. He hasn't had much luck in his past couple of starts. He has a great record at this track and distance with two wins and a 3rd from three starts, and he's got a win and a 3rd from two starts on heavy ground. He could bounce back at $26. (1) Bigboyroy ran well first up and he's only missed a placing once from 13 starts so he has to be included.
Value: (5) The Bald Eagle $26
