Two teams in desperate need of a win go head-to-head on Thursday Night Football, as the Buccaneers head to western New York to take on the Buffalo Bills. With the Bills having lost 2 of their past 3, and the Bucs their past 2, both teams are in poor form. Will either team be able to flip this form, or are we in for a poor-quality Thursday Night matchup?
Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet. Make sure you are following BeforeYouBet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for all Prime-Time NFL games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Monday’s. All for free!
NFL Week 8 Preview & Betting Tips
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium, Friday 27th October, 11:15am (AEDT)
Last Week
The Bucs hosted NFC South rivals the Falcons last week and played them tight in a game that could have gone either way, eventually going down 16-13. Whilst the Bucs managed to force 3 turnovers, they were generally unable to stop the Falcons offense, which is a concern given the fact the Falcons offense has struggled this season, and that the Bucs’ defence is supposed to be their better side of the ball. The offense also appears to be struggling, so much so that Baker Mayfield has spoken out about the fact they were running the ball far too much of early downs, which has been a concern for the Bucs for the past few years. Either way, they need a spark on offense, can they get it this week against the Bills?
As for the Bills, they also faced a divisional rival, and they also lost. The Bills went into their clash with the Patriots as 7.5-point favourites and were trailing the entire game as the Patriots offense finally clicked into gear as they averaged 1.4 yards per play more than the Bills. The Bills defence is being overrated in my opinion, with the losses of Tre White and Matt Milano, the Bills have really struggled defensively. However, the bigger concern is offensively, where the Bills have struggled to get going over the past 3 weeks. Concerning times for a Super Bowl contender.
Injury Report
Buffalo Bills
Damien Harris / Nyheim Hines (RB) – OUT
DaQuan Jones (DE) – OUT
Matt Milano / Baylon Spector (LB) – OUT
Tre White (CB) – OUT
Tommy Doyle (OT) – OUT
Zach Davidson / Dawson Knox / Quintin Morris (TE) – OUT
Ed Oliver (DT) – Questionable
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matt Feiler (OG) – OUT
Corey Jensen (C) – OUT
Russell Gage (WR) – OUT
Kaevon Merriweather (SAF) – OUT
Chris Godwin (WR) – Questionable
Vita Vea (DT) – Questionable
Baker Mayfield (QB) – Questionable
Match Preview
These teams last met in the 2021 season, with the Bucs sneaking home in OT, 33-27. The Bucs were dominating at the half, up 24-7, before a huge comeback by the Bills led by Josh Allen, who threw for 308 yards, and rushed for a further 109 yards. This Bucs’ defence is similar personnel-wise, so maybe Allen figured something out late. As usual though, with a result more than 12 months ago, I don’t take a great deal from this matchup when handicapping this particular game.
The Bills were 8.5-point favourites on the lookahead, with the number re-opening at Bills -8 after week 7 was completed. Early money trickled in on the Bucs surprisingly, with Bills -7.5 available for a short period of time. The Bills have since been bet, with the number now sitting around Bills -8.5/9, depending on where you bet. I make the Bills 9.5-point favourites, and with the number between 8 and 10, it’s in a dead zone which makes it hard to bet.
The total was 42 on the lookahead and was bumped up half a point on re-open. Overs money has continued to come in, with the current total sitting at 43.5. I agree with the move, with my fair total sitting at 44, with a 27-17 final score something I could see happening if this Bills defence continues to struggle.
With the Buccaneers offense trending towards a bottom 10 unit, this is a get right spot for this Bills defence. The Bucs will continue to run the ball on early downs, and despite the Bills conceding the 2nd most yards per carry, with the obvious gameplan of the Bucs, they should be able to scheme a way to shut the run down. If the Bucs can’t get things going on the ground, I expect the Bills to shut this offense down and we will likely see Mayfield make turnover worthy plays in an attempt to get something explosive happening downfield. With Dawson Knox out for the Bills, they will likely go back to more 3-receiver sets, which hopefully opens up the playbook for Josh Allen.
Whilst it’s not a numbers play, I’m backing the Bills to get the job done here, as they are desperate for a good performance. I’ll sell the extra point to get a better price, with 9 being a dead number in the NFL.
Bills -9.5
$2.04 (2 Units)
