The NRL Finals begin on Friday night with a blockbuster clash between the Broncos and Storm in Brisbane. Both teams are in familiar territory after meeting here last week, as well as several times previously under similar circumstances. The Broncos have earned the right to host by finishing higher on the competition ladder and will want to take the opportunity to host a home Preliminary Final in two weeks’ time at their home ground. The Storm will have other ideas and take great joy in spoiling the party.
Get set, the NRL Finals action promises to be exciting and BeforeYouBet is here to guide you into a winner or two!
2023 NRL Second Qualifying Final Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm
Suncorp Stadium, Friday 8th September, 7:50pm (AEST)
The Broncos were defeated by the Storm last week 32-22, with the Storm overcoming a 12-nil lead after 13 minutes to lead 14-12 at HT. In the second half, they scored 3 unanswered tries, while only conceding 1 try and 2 penalty goals. Looking at the statistics, it is no surprise the Storm were victorious; they controlled possession (48% vs 52%) and had a superior completion rate (72% vs 85%). Most other areas were even with the average metres per carry (9.7m vs 9.6m), line breaks (5 vs 6) and post contact metres (590 vs 564) all relatively close. With a large amount of regular first grade players rested for that fixture; little attention can be given to how that match played out. It will be a vastly different story this week.
A lot has been made about the history between these two sides. It isn’t positive for the Broncos, losing the past 14 fixtures between these two sides. Worse still, the visitors appear to lift to another level at this ground; the Storm have a 78% record here (vs Broncos 59%). The Storm have lost just 4 times at Suncorp Stadium since 2007. However, these two sides are remarkably different to the ones which faced off during those contests. To suggest this Broncos team is worried about hoodoos or history in a game would devalue their capabilities. They are an impressive team across the park; they are a young squad capable of setting up victory with dominant forward play. The Storm can combat this to some extent, but they appear to be missing a ball carrier in their rotation. The odds support this, with the Broncos listed as favourites ($1.60 vs $2.35).
Defence will be where this game is won; both teams are proficient at scoring points, but the Broncos have established a point of difference in this area compared to most other sides. They have the second-best defensive record in the competition and average slightly more than the Storm (26ppg vs 25ppg) this year. This indicates that the home side is well placed to break the current hold the Storm have on this contest. Eventually, such runs will come to an end and there is every indication that this will be that moment. For an investment, it would be surprising to see a ‘blow out’ victory. While matches between these two sides in the past have gone this way, the intensity of Finals in a high-intensity and emotion-charged atmosphere should keep the margin of victory close.
Broncos 1-12
$3 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Cobbo to Score
Leg 2: Mam to Score
They are the two leading try scorers for the Broncos this year (Cobbo 19 & Mam 14). Cobbo is a threat both in the air and on the ground and while he has a capable defender in front of him, expect ample opportunities to come his way. Mam is great when taking the ball to the line and has a terrific support game whereby he can add 4 points to a line break.
SGM Odds: $5 at Picklebet (0.5 Units)
Prop Bet
taking this option is more a ‘hit and hope’ rather than any proven formula. Finals games generally bring out a high intensity between teams and this game should be no different. This should see a tight first half and with the Broncos suggested to win, there is no reason why you could not use this to your advantage.
Halftime/fulltime Double: Draw/Broncos – $16 at TAB (0.5 Units)
