A heavyweight NRL clash on Friday night sees the white-hot Broncos take on the Roosters, who are fresh off a 42-point drubbing of the Dragons on ANZAC Day. Two of the best teams in the comp, both in good form, this should be a cracking game.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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- Guide to Betting on the NRL
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters
Suncorp Stadium, Friday 3rd May, 8:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Broncos have been tremendous the past month, and it was another impressive display last week on the road against the Tigers. The Broncos shot out of the gates early, with a 5th minute try to Deine Mariner opening the scoring. Five further unanswered tries had the Broncos leading 34-0 after 66 minutes, with two late consolation tries to the Tigers making the final score 34-10. The Broncos did this despite only completing 68% of their sets, making 13 errors and conceding 8 penalties. This team looks really good right now.
Speaking of looking good, the Roosters were sensational last week against the Dragons. After conceding an early try to the Dragons, the Roosters put on five unanswered tries to close out the first half, leading 30-6. Another five converted tries in the second half sealed the 42-point victory, with Sam Walker absolutely superb. Walker had the ball on a string with the boot, whilst also chipping in with a try, two try assists, and a line-break assist. If this is the Roosters level week in, week out, they can certainly make a run for the Premiership this season.
Match Preview
The second meeting between these sides in season 2024, after they kicked things off in Vegas in round 1, with a 20-10 win for the Roosters. The Broncos closed 3-point favourites, with the Roosters winning and covering as underdogs. The Broncos were extremely rusty, making 15 errors whilst missing 36 tackles. This continued a recent dominance for the Roosters over the Broncos, with the Sydney club winning 6 of the past 8 matches, including the past three at Suncorp Stadium.
As for this clash, the Broncos opened 5.5-point home favourites, indicating the markets viewed these teams similarly to what they did in round 1. The Broncos have taken on money all week though, as they now sit as 8.5-point favourites. I am far closer to the original number, and this move makes me sense there may be some injury news to the Roosters. However, with no news currently, I believe there is value here in the Roosters as big underdogs here.
As for the total, it opened 40.5, and has been bet up to 42.5. With totals appearing to be on the increase, I can understand the move, however based on this season’s data, I would make a fair 40.5. Still, I don’t see enough value in the under to bet it here.
So, whilst I do like the Roosters +8.5, I believe there is better value in the either team by 1-10 market, which is currently available at close to even odds. I don’t believe the Roosters will spank the Broncos at home, so getting the extra two points at better odds I believe is a value bet.
Either team to win by 1-10
$1.96 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
D Mariner (1+ try) – Mariner has 6 tries in 6 games to start the season, including a try in the opening game against the Roosters. The Roosters left side has conceded 46% of their tries this season, so expect the Broncos to go right.
D Young (1+ try) – Much like Mariner, Young will be attacking the weaker Broncos left edge, which conceded 56% of their tries. Young has 3 tries in 5 games to start the year.
Under 49.5 points – As above, I lean under 42.5, and we are buying an extra converted try and field goal here.
SGM Odds: $7.32 at Neds
