There’s no way to sugar coat the Wallabies’ 38-7 loss to the All Blacks last weekend.
Coach Eddie Jones was blunt in talking through a Test in four parts: “Zero-to-30 minutes we were very good, 30-40 we were terrible, 40-60 we were pretty good without taking our scoring chances and 60-80 we were terrible.”
How things can be turned around in a week is the focus of Saturday’s Test in Dunedin. The Test will be played under the roof at Forsyth Barr Stadium so forget snarly weather as a factor.
We tipped the All Blacks to cover a 13.5-point margin ($1.85) last weekend and they did. So, what hope do we see for the Wallabies in Dunedin?
2023 Bledisloe Cup: All Blacks vs Wallabies Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand v Australia
Saturday, August 5th, Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin 12:35pm (AEST)
There’s a roof on this stadium so that’s essential to note because it guarantees a fast field and usually plenty of points. The Wallabies’ only previous Tests at Forsyth Barr Stadium were both high-scoring losses in 2013 (41-33) and 2017 (35-29) which supports that idea.
The Wallabies have largely kept the same side as played a week ago while the All Blacks have made major changes.
There will be some more cohesiveness for the Wallabies and that will help young flyhalf Carter Gordon who had an encouraging first taste against the Kiwis but for a few miscued kicks. Halfback Tate McDermott is the type to rise to the captaincy honour bestowed on him so expect good things from him. He’s $5.60 for an Anytime Try…grab it for the cheeky little quick tap try he might pull off.
The Wallabies pack had a good crack to open the opening Bledisloe Cup Test which showed in the 7-5 lead past the 30-minute mark.
You have to sustain the rage for longer because yellow card, bang-bang, two tries and the All Blacks had flipped that to a telling 19-7 by half-time.
You do have to mention the Wallabies haven’t won on NZ soil since 2001.
Being quoted as 21.5-point underdogs is still bizarre. Seriously, $11 outsiders in a two-horse race is wild.
Because the guarantee of good conditions aids precision, you’d hope the Wallabies can control the ball and limit the turnovers that often bring the team unstuck in greasy or wet NZ conditions.
The depth of talent is obvious in the All Blacks’ selections.
In comes Shaun Stevenson for a debut on the wing. He’s the silky mover who loved a try for the champion Chiefs.
Stevenson, fullback Will Jordan and line-buster Leicester Fainga’anuku are a potent back three combo.
Chiefs flanker Samipeni Finau is another getting his first start for the All Blacks.
Damian McKenzie gets a further chance to start at flyhalf with Richie Mo’unga on the bench. That’s some depth at No.10 with Beauden Barrett now seemingly only in the fullback debate.
The Wallabies have plenty to prove in this Test. South Africa and NZ have racked up big wins when the Aussie resistance has been snapped.
There is an onus on hanging tough to the final minute so take the start in this one.
Prop Bets:
Total Match Points Over 60.5 – $1.95 at TAB
Leicester Fainga’anuku Anytime Try – $1.50 at TAB
Samisoni Taukei’aho Anytime Try – $1.90 at Ladbrokes
Dave Porecki Anytime Try – $4.50 at Neds
Australia +12.5
$3 (4 Units)
Argentina v South Africa
Sunday, August 6th, Estadio Jose Amalfitani, Buenos Aires 5:10am (AEST)
There have been changes again to the Springboks line-up. It seems everyone is getting a run before the South African squad is finalised for the World Cup. Importantly, flyhalf Manie Libbok has been retained to give the side direction behind what will always be a strong pack.
Hooker Bongi Mbonambi becomes only the second black player to lead the Boks.
The Argentinians fought hard all the way and came home strongly to lose just 22-21 when the sides met in Johannesburg last weekend.
By rights, the Argentinians should rise a notch for their home fans and against a Boks team which can’t be the most cohesive of units.
South Africa -4.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
