Big Bash League Round 7 Preview
Just two rounds remain in the whirlwind that is Season 4 of the Big Bash League (BBL04). It’s rather surprising that in such an even competition that there now appears to be a little gap between the top four and the bottom four. The Heat, Renegades and Thunder look gone, while the Hurricanes only have one more match remaining, so they will need to win and improve their run rate significantly to hope to climb into fourth.
The Stars seem to be finals-bound with two games left and a better net run rate than the Hurricanes. They were 0-3 a few short weeks ago and sunk to the bottom of the ladder, but a couple of incredible wins have jumped them right back into contention. Again it came down to the last over, this time against the Renegades, as a desperate quick single, and a nervous 3rd umpire review, saw them claw a win off the final ball of the match. The MCG fans certainly are getting their money’s worth this season.
The Stars appear set to join the Scorchers, Strikers and Sixers who have all-but booked their finals tickets.
Round 6 would see the Scorchers rise to the top of the ladder as they continue to put the squeeze on their opposition as they defend low totals. They now get a week’s break to plan for the final round and then a home final.
In terms of betting, we went a perfect 4/4 in Round 6, with a couple at nice prices, as we start to make up the deficit we created in the early rounds. Hopefully we can get ourselves back into profit overall following Round 7!
Monday January 12th – Adelaide Strikers vs Sydney Thunder (Adelaide Oval)
After a week off, the competition’s top team in the Strikers will be looking to consolidate their position at the top of the ladder against the struggling Thunder.
The Strikers have only dropped one game this season, and that was against the other strength of the competition in the Scorchers, but this is a big round for them with two games in just a couple of days. One more win will guarantee them a finals berth and you would think they can get the job done here against the Thunder.
The questions over the Strikers were in the depth of their batting but Jono Dean, Travis Head and Tim Ludeman have all stepped up this season to play match-winning knocks which has been important after the injury to Brad Hodge.
However it’s with the ball where they have got the job done this season with one of the most effective bowling line ups in the league. Ben Laughlin has once again been excellent in the T20 format with 9 wickets to be fourth overall this season.
The Thunder started this season with a lot of hope. A new look and some gun recruiting saw expectations rise when the won their first game and then knocked off the Scorchers in Perth which is not an easy thing to do. But it feels like the wheels are falling off after performing poorly in a rain-marred game against the Hurricanes.
A calf injury to their inspirational leader Mike Hussey is a gigantic hole to fill, while Pat Cummins has been called up to the World Cup squad. They have been replaced by youngster Ahillen Beadle and NSW off-spinner Chris Green. Who? Exactly. Chris Hartley has been given the reigns as captain and he’ll probably put himself up the order to try and combat their lack of depth. Their batting is now full of the offcuts from other teams with guys like Cosgrove, Blizzard and Hughes their recognized batsman to support their lone star in Jacques Kallis. The bowling will fall heavily on Gurinder Sandhu.
We picked the Thunder to finish last season, and they are heading in that direction. It depends on whether the Heat can find another victory from somewhere and boost their net run rate a little. I can’t see the Thunder winning here, and then they close their season against the Stars and the Sixers – the two biggest franchises in the league. So it’s not looking good for the Thunder.
Verdict: Strikers to win this one in a canter. The Thunder are severely undermanned, and while fresh blood can also inject enthusiasm, the Strikers should have too much class to drop this game.
Tuesday January 13th – Melbourne Renegades vs Brisbane Heat (Etihad Stadium)
If the Heat want to avoid the wooden spoon, this is probably their best chance to find a second victory for the season as they travel to Melbourne to take on the inconsistent Renegades.
The Heat were pretty underwhelming at home against a classy Sixers outfit and they were comprehensively outplayed. After early losses of wickets, Flintoff and Forrest did well to post a respectable total, but once again they didn’t bowl with any real venom and the Sixers batsmen easily got home.
Expect the Heat to regain Joe Burns from Australian duties which will be a much-needed boost to their side.
The Renegades are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Stars where they nearly pinched it in the final over with two consecutive run outs. It was almost three in three balls to win the match, but the throw was just wide to see the Stars win it off the final ball of the match.
How will the Renegades be able to lift for this match with their season now virtually over? They will need a couple of big victories and have other results go their way to have a chance of finals.
It was good to see Matthew Wade finally get a big score for the season, and he’s now just a few runs behind Callum Ferguson for most Renegades runs this season. Even more reliance will be on these two after captain Aaron Finch was called up to the World Cup squad, as none of the other Renegades regulars have been able to perform at all this season. Ben Stokes and Shakib Al Hasan have been useful additions to prop up the middle order.
The Renegades are still struggling with the ball, with Nathan Winter their leading wicket taker for the season with just five wickets. If Pattinson, Siddle, Rimmington and Ahmed all fire, then they do have the potency but at the moment it’s all coming down to poor execution.
Verdict: A game which won’t have an impact on finals but it could be the best chance for the Heat to avoid the wooden spoon, so that might be some motivation. If they can bowl well, they have the batting fire power to cause an upset here, but on paper, the Renegades appear to have a better rounded side.
Wednesday January 14th – Sydney Sixers vs Adelaide Strikers
After two rather lacklustre matches to start the round, we get a blockbuster on Wednesday with the Strikers backing up for their second game in two days against the talented Sixers.
The Strikers took 1 point out of their washout against the Thunder. That point should be enough to secure them a finals berth but I think they would’ve liked 2 points to gun for that home semi-final. Now it appears this match will decide who will get that home semi.
The Strikers looked in good touch with some strong lower order hitting, particularly from Alex Ross, enabling them to post 119 off just ten overs. Against an undermanned Thunder team, that was probably going to be enough.
There are a few doubts in their squad coming into this match with Kane Richardson on standby to play in the ODI match in Sydney on Friday. The Strikers have requested an OK from the ACB to play Richardson in this match. Shaun Tait is also on the plane but this will be his first away trip of the season, so there are doubts about his ability to travel due to hamstring soreness. Trent Lawford and Sebastian Gotch have been added to the squad.
The Strikers lower order may need to stand up once again as they take on a strong Sixers line up who will have plenty of fire power with the ball to break through their openers and expose the middle order.
The Sixers bowling attack of Lee, Bollinger, Abbott, Henriques and O’Keefe are very solid, but they will also likely be joined by Test start Nathan Lyon for this encounter which will be a huge boost if the wicket offers any assistance to spin.
Their batting was super consistent in their win over the Heat last round, and all top six batsmen have shown form at different stages this season. Their batting has definitely proven itself this season, whereas some teams have yet to be fully tested.
Verdict: Really looking forward to this one as it should be a cracking game. The bookies can barely split them at around $1.90 apiece. With the potential outs for the Strikers and the inclusion of Lyon for the Sixers, I’ll have a slight lean to the home team.
Thursday January 15th – Brisbane Heat vs Hobart Hurricanes
The last match of the season for both the Heat and the Hurricanes, and they are probably pretty thankful for that. The Hurricanes do still have a chance of playing finals but they must win well here and then have other results fall their way.
It’s been a season of frustration for the purple army with the Hurricanes showing glimpses of brilliance with a lot of ordinary performances in between. With such a potent batting line up, they would be disappointed they couldn’t chase down 141 against the Scorchers last round. After chasing down 208 against Brisbane, they’ve been ordinary with the bat ever since.
Some changes have been made with captain George Bailey and vice-captain Xavier Doherty joining the national ODI squad. Tim Paine will lead the team with Travis Birt and Joe Mennie coming in as replacements. Their team still has a strong look about it, with some fire power with the ball and some good hitters with the bat.
We’re going to do an update on our Futures Bets next round, but since it’s the Hurricanes likely last game, we thought we would mention a couple of our sweats for this game.
One of our biggest plays was on Ben Dunk to get the most runs at the Hurricanes. He’s currently 18 runs ahead of Jonathan Wells while the only other likely challenger is Tim Paine who trails by 29 runs. Hopefully Dunk can finish the season strong for us and net us a +16 unit result.
The other point of interest is with the Hurricanes bowling where we backed Cameron Boyce to claim the most wickets. He’s on 9 wickets which is in front, but he’s got Ben Hilfenhaus and Jake Reed breathing down his neck on 8 wickets each. Hopefully a spin-friendly wicket will help Boyce to hold his position on top.
Onto the Heat and well, there’s not much to say really. A terrible season and a horrible effort against the Renegades. Sure it was a tricky pitch, but a score of 80 is not good enough on any wicket. Just one win for the season means the wooden spoon is theirs and they now have nothing to play for.
Verdict: Hurricanes will be looking to win and win well if they are to have any hopes of playing finals. It’s happened in previous years where teams have come from the clouds to make the finals, and as we know in the Big Bash, anything can happen! So with that in mind, I think the Hurricanes will make sure they do their part and secure the victory.
Betting
Overall: -2.09 units
Adelaide Strikers (vs Sydney Thunder) @$1.60 at Betfair (3 units)
Melbourne Renegades (vs Brisbane Heat) @$1.75 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)
Sydney Sixers (vs Adelaide Strikers) @$1.93 at Palmerbet (1 unit)
Hobart Hurricanes (vs Brisbane Heat) @$1.73 at BetEasy(3 units)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
