Big Bash League Round 6 Preview
All of a sudden we’re into Round 6 of the Big Bash League (BBL04) and the ladder is starting to take some shape. We had a slightly better round, picking 3/4, but unfortunately our loss was our strongest play of the round when the Hurricanes fell. We still ended up on the positive side of the ledger for the round, and hope to gain some more ground in Round 6.
The Scorchers pushed their claims for back-to-back titles with two big wins in Round 5. They ruined the perfect record of the Strikers, and then destroyed the Heat at home to end the season of the Brisbane-based franchise. Brad Hogg’s return to the side has given them a tremendous boost as the opposition just can’t seem to post a competitive total against their talented bowling line up.
The scary thing about the Scorchers is that Nathan Coutler-Nile may return soon, Mitch Marsh may get a game or two in as part of his hamstring injury recovery, while if Shaun Marsh is left out of the World Cup squad then he may play finals which would add some real quality to their batting!
The Stars are the other talking point, with an incredible Super Over win over the Sixers at the MCG. Some amazing finishing by James Faulkner saw them somehow claw a tie, before they smashed 19 off the Super Over to claim the win. It means the Stars are well and truly alive after starting the season 0-3. It was a disappointing loss for the Sixers who are now back in the pack a little.
Friday January 9th – Sydney Thunder vs Hobart Hurricanes (Spotless Stadium)
It’s a massive round for these two teams and they meet at Spotless Stadium - the home of the GWS Giants in the AFL and the first time cricket of this level has been played at the ground.
The Hurricanes had a horrible loss against the Renegades. A win would’ve set them up for the finals, now they have a huge battle on their hands. It only got worse after the game with Tim Paine and Travis Birt both ruled out through injury while Alex Hales is on his way to join the England national team.
They are huge holes to fill. Shoaib Malik will be an experienced addition, while Dom Michael and rookie Sean Willis aren’t exactly household names to give the Hurricanes fans much confidence. In better news, Tim Bresnan played well in his first game in purple and looks like he’ll be very useful with both bat and ball.
Meanwhile the Thunder have had a nice little break, yet have managed to hang onto their place in the top four. A win here will solidify that position, while a loss will see them head towards the tail of the ladder.
There has been a lot of support for the Thunder in this game, citing the withdrawals from the Hurricanes, but the Thunder aren’t without their share of problem.
Andrew McDonald and Kurtis Patterson are both out with injury while England captain Eoin Morgan has played his last game for the season. They have been replaced by little known Ian Moran and Jason Roy, while Mark Cosgrove has also been given another opportunity.
The Thunder played with their batting line up last game with Hussey coming in the middle order to give them a little more depth in case of early wickets. It worked, but will they continue that approach? While Cosgrove is experienced, his best is behind him, so there will be a lot left to Hussey, Kallis and Blizzard against his old side.
Verdict: Two weakened teams who might both end up struggling to make the finals. Sure, it will be hard for the Hurricanes to replace two of their top order batsmen, but Malik is at least the worth of one of those two, and their batting is still strong with Dunk, Wells and Bailey (who cashed our leading run scorer bet at $6.50 last round). I’m not convinced about the Thunder as they rely so much on Hussey and Kallis. If the money comes in for the Thunder, then there might be some value on the Hurricanes if the price continues to drift, but with both teams throwing up a mixed bag, it will probably be best to sit back and watch.
Saturday January 10th – Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades (MCG)
A rematch of the Melbourne derby that saw the Stars demolish the Renegades under the roof at Etihad. Both teams have ventured down rather amazing paths in the week since that match.
The Renegades, coming off a record low score of 57 against the Stars, fought back well with an impressive victory against the Hurricanes down in Hobart. They bowled really well, but their batting problems were masked by a one-man wrecking machine in English recruit Ben Stokes. It’s rather amazing to think he’s been left out of the English World Cup squad as this guy seems to have all the ability in the world.
Stokes and Finch will lead the batting, with queries lingering over the value of Ferguson, Rohrer and Cooper in the middle order. However with the ball the Renegades are making big improvements and if James Pattinson comes back in, then they will be looking good.
The derby win for the Stars might have kick-started their season. Their run-rate was back in good shape and they followed up with an incredible Super Over win against the Sixers when the game appeared lost. James Faulkner and Tom Triffitt were tremendous and managed to keep their season alive in desperate fashion. They won’t want to lose that momentum now.
David Hussey has been ruled out for the rest of the season so Triffitt will remain in the squad while Peter Handscomb comes back in with one likely to play as a batsman.
The other key factor in the Stars success is the bowling of John Hastings. He successfully bowled the Super Over and has taken ten wickets for the season to sit second on the leading wicket takers list.
Verdict: With the Renegades getting themselves back on track in Hobart, this game has a better look about it. Both teams still have hopes of the finals, but another loss and it will be season over. So it’s make or break here! I think the Stars are finals bound as they are finally playing like the good team they are, so they will make sure of a win here.
Sunday 11th January (1:45pm) – Hobart Hurricanes vs Perth Scorchers (Bellerive Oval)
A big double header on Sunday will be kicked off with the Hurricanes hosting the Scorchers in a fascinating game for the makeup of the final four.
The Scorchers had a sensational round with two wins to jump to second place on the ladder but that will all come unstuck with a loss here as they’ll be back in the muck of teams fighting for the finals. On the other hand, a win consolidates their chances for a home semi-final.
The Scorchers restricted their opponents to 115 and 134 in their last two matches, led by evergreen Brad Hogg, tournament wicket leader Jason Behrendorff and Andrew Tye who has been one of the finds of the season.
Michael Carberry also showed everyone what he’s capable of with the bat after a lacklustre start to the tournament, so that bodes well for their batting alongside Michael Klinger and Adam Voges. The Scorchers have named an unchanged squad.
The Hurricanes kept their season alive with a win over the Thunder earlier this round in a rain-interrupted affair. They bowled really well on a tricky deck with Jake Reed showing some heat with four wickets. The other quicks were good in support, leaving Doherty and Boyce with nothing to do!
Tim Paine has been added to the squad, but will have to pass a fitness test on his toe if he is to play. His experience and skill at the top of the order is vital if the Hurricanes are to have a chance. Imports Shoaib Malik and Tim Bresnan have slotted into the team very well and should be valuable assets for the rest of the season.
Verdict: A rematch of last year’s final, but this time on the Hurricanes turf. The Scorchers have been the more disciplined and consistent team this year, and even though the Hurricanes have all the potential in the world, when the bookies put this up as a 50/50 match, I’d rather my money on the Scorchers here.
Sunday January 11th (7:10pm) – Brisbane Heat vs Sydney Sixers
The Heat have been the big disappointments of the season and they currently sit in last position. Their line up looks dangerous, and they have had games where they were in winning positions, but just one win for the season means they are only playing for pride now.
Nathan Reardon has been good with the bat, and Chris Lynn has been ok, but you’d have to say that the recruiting of Andrew Flintoff has been better for the Channel Ten commentary team that the Heat on the field.
Joe Burns will return to the side next week, but won’t be backing up from the Test match to play this game. Englishman Stephen Parry will play his first match, while Dan Christian is expected to return after missing the Perth game through injury.
The Sydney Sixers will be disappointed to have dropped the game against the Stars in the Super Over. They were in a winnable position and you would back Brett Lee to defend 15 off the last over every time. Unfortunately it wasn’t to be, and now with two losses in a row, they will be desperate to turn their form around against the luckless Heat.
The good news is that Doug Bollinger and Steve O’Keefe bowled really well against the Stars, and Michael Lumb was brilliant with the bat. Their squad will remain unchanged for this match.
Verdict: This is not a game that the Sixers can afford to drop. The Heat are full of dangerous hitting power, but have nothing to play for, while the Sixers have everything to play for. The Sixers to win and win well.
Betting
Overall: -6.19 units
Hobart Hurricanes (vs Sydney Thunder) @$2.10 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Melbourne Stars (vs Melbourne Renegades) @$1.70 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Perth Scorchers (vs Hobart Hurricanes) @$2.00 at Palmerbet (2 units)
Sydney Sixers (vs Brisbane Heat) @$1.70 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Jonathan Wells has been in really good form this season, coming in at number five or six, as he has amassed the second most runs for the Hurricanes. However this game may offer him a chance up the order due to key injuries. There's a good chance he could open, or bat at three or four, but at worse, he'll probably bat five. He has batted up the order in state games in the past. The price of $8.00 offers tremendous value with money back if he hits a six thanks to the Sportsbet promotion.
Leading run scorer Hurricanes - Jonathan Wells @$8.00 at Sportsbet (0.8 units)
Ben Stokes was phenomenal against the Hurricanes with some power hitting that was as good as anything we've seen in this competition. Along with Aaron Finch, he looks the stand out player in the Renegades line up, and although he'll get a bit more attention this time around, happy to back a man in form at a good price. He's also a good chance to hit a maximum along the way to give us a freeroll with the Sportsbet promotion.
Leading run scorer Renegades - Ben Stokes @4.50 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Futures Update
Some interesting developments on the leading run scorer leaderboard after the stunning innings from he Scorchers' Michael Carberry. He’s now just five runs behind teammate Michael Klinger, but the two have played an extra game than everyone else. Mike Hussey is sitting 7th with two games up his sleeve, while Ben Dunk is back on top of the Hurricanes and into 9th overall.
Jason Behrendorff continues to perform with the ball and holds a one wicket lead over John Hastings for most wickets in the league. Ben Laughlin now has a three wicket lead at the Strikers which is great for us as he sits third overall, while Cameron Boyce is fourth, so we’re hopeful of some good results for us there.
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
