Welcome to our first preview and horse racing betting tips for Belmont in Perth on Saturday, September 23rd.
We’ll be covering Perth each Saturday, along with Melbourne and Sydney, as we head into the Spring and towards the Ascot Summer Carnival, featuring the TabTouch Masters.
This weekend we have eight races on the card at Belmont, with the track currently rated a Soft 5. There’s more rain predicted during the day in Perth so I’d expect the track to remain wet.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. You can also see our Golden Rose Day Preview & Betting Tips here and our Caulfield Racing Preview & Betting Tips here!
Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!
In the first episode of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the 2017 Golden Rose Stakes Day and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Saturday, September 23rd! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
BELMONT RACING TIPS
Best Bet & Best Value Bet: Race 5 Kia Ora Star EW
Race 1
Average way to start the day with a fairly low maiden. BURNING MAGIC finds a suitable race to win today. It’s always risky tipping a 20-start maiden but BURNING MAGIC hasn’t had anything go right lately and finds a suitable race to finally win. The big key today is she draws barrier 6, as opposed to 12, 13, 12 and 9 in her past four starts. The last time she drew a barrier was five starts ago when she started from barrier 5, and she ran 2nd. That was also on a soft track; she’s actually placed three times from five starts on soft ground. So with everything in her favour today, she should really go close, but it’s hard to get inspired by $4.60 for a non-winner. BLOOMY’S SUN started the $3 favourite on debut but was trapped three-wide without cover on speed the entire trip. He’d trialled well leading into that, so with a more economical run he can definitely bounce back to win, but he draws awkwardly once again in barrier 9 and Lucy Warwick is horribly out of form. Pike takes over for the ride on NO ORDINARY GAL, and from barrier 1 she’ll get every chance to break through. She’s unplaced from three starts at the track but she’s actually finished her races off pretty well in her past two starts. Looks value at the prices. SAVUNO and BRISTOL ROAD next best. Tough way to start.
TIP: Burning Magic
Race 2
Interesting little race that’s low in numbers but high in quality. MONEY MAHER deserves to be favourite but the $1.70 on offer at most places is very short. There is $1.90 still available at Bet365 which is a more acceptable race but there are some talented horses returning here that definitely have the ability to win. Having said that, Money is the one to beat and is the form horse in the race, having won both starts this prep in impressive style, the most recent of which was over track and distance. From barrier 8 he’ll likely be taken back to last and try to zip down the outside late. REYKJAVIK ran 4th in the Group 2 Karakatta Plate last prep, beaten 0.75L. He had a very quiet trial before his first up run, and returned to the track with a midfield finish over 1000m in Wednesday grade. Steps up to 1200m now and the senior rider takes over from the apprentice, so with the run under the belt he could improve. RESISTANCE comes into this fist up with two trials under the belt and the booking of William Pike riding for Fred Kersley is eye-catching. She’ll drive forward from barrier 1 to sit up on the speed. ROGANELLA is another that resumes from a spell for new trainer Dan Morton. Ran 2nd to Art Series (who has won four from six) on debut before failing over 1400m. Has won a trial leading into his first up run here and no doubt he can go close. MOSCHARD is a very interesting debutante who has trialled very well on a couple of occasions. Draws to get a soft run from barrier 5 and looks decent value at double figure odds. SHANIA STYLE the blowout.
TIP: Money Maher
Race 3
RHI’S ROCKET comes up the short-priced favourite here but I think she can be taken on. If you go back to January last year she ran 3rd behind Vega Magic and Scales Of Justice, not bad form for a special conditions race in Perth! She returned from more than a year off the track with a 5th placing at Ascot back in May, and was immediately sent back out for a spell. She is first up again today, meaning this is just her second run in 18 months. She trialled well and her best would win this, but that’s a huge query and at $2.40 I’ll be looking at others. Quite keen on the chances of GLIMMER GIRL who is also first up. She won first up last prep and is a winner of four from eight starts. Beat the likes of Dainty Tess last time we saw her which is good form for this. Importantly, she’s won her only start on soft ground, which is what I expect the track to be today. Pike will take her back from barrier 9 but I think she’ll be right in the finish and would much rather back her at $3.80. UNDISCLOSED can go well second up here. First up she was caught three-wide on speed behind the very smart Floyd, but she’s won at the track and has won three from five at the distance so she can bounce back. TENTERDEN looks the value at double figure odds. Has performed well first up previously and has placed twice from three starts at the track and distance. Beat the likes of Just Act Natural back in February so his best would be competitive here. Drawn nicely. SLIK SAM would go close at his best.
TIP: Glimmer Girl / Tenterden EW
Race 4
Two I’m keen on here. The first is AMALIEMOO who steps up to the 1400m now after two solid enough runs over 1200m to start her prep. She’s undefeated over 1400m from three starts so she really should be ready to win today. Happy with $4.80. I think the value is IN THIS LIFE at the $8 mark. She’s had two runs back from a short let-up and both have been good. First up she finished 2nd after coming from last over this track and distance, and last start she once again got a long way back before being held up the entire straight. She went to the line under a stranglehold and should have finished much closer. From the good barrier today I’d like to see her a bit closer but they like snagging her back so I would expect similar tactics. That, combined with the fact Lucy Warwick is out of form, are the negatives, but if things go her way she can win. Worth noting that both of those runs were on soft ground so she ticks that box. NASHVILLE CAT gets the blinkers off and a sharp step up in trip from 1000m to 1400m. She went from 1300m back to 1000m and now up to 1400m which is an odd preparation, but she’s got Pike on board, is a dual winner at the track, and has never missed a place on soft ground. She’ll go close. VEGA DIOR backed up a string of very good trials to break through in maiden grade at the provincials last start. Needs to step up here but has scope to do so. BIG CAROLINE thereabouts.
TIP: Amaliemoo / In This Life EW
Race 5
This looks a good betting race. Keen to take on a few here given the wet conditions, and that includes the favourite YOUNG GINA. He’s won three from five starts, but all three have been on good tracks, with his only two failures coming on soft ground leading up to his last start win. First up he ran over 1400m here on a soft track and was beaten 3L, and second up he ran over 1200m on soft ground when beaten 2L. Improved sharply back on firm ground so I think that’s what he needs and therefore the $2.70 is a price we can definitely take him on at. TYCON TARGET was an impressive first up winner but has never placed from four starts on soft ground so more than happy to take him on at his $6 quote. TAKE IT LIKE A MAN has won two Wednesday races in a row over 1600m. Drops back to 1400m which is a distance he’s never won at from four starts, and he’s also unplaced from two runs on soft ground. IRON BOSS is zero placings from five starts on soft ground. With all that said, I’m very keen to back both TIME TO HUNT and KIA ORA STAR. Time To Hunt is undefeated from two starts and resumes here. His two wins came over 1500m and 1600m so he may be looking for further than this, but he beat a very smart one in Reveille last prep so his class may take him a long way. KIA ORA STAR won a maiden here three weeks ago, running home strongly from back in the field over 1200m. That win was on soft ground, so he ticks that box and looks as if the 1400m will really suit. The horse he beat then came out and won its next start, so I’m really keen to back him each way here at $7 and he’s one of my best bets of the day.
TIP: Time To Hunt / Kia Ora Star (Best Value)
Race 6
Two I’m keen on again here. The first is UNIVERSAL LAW who is ready to win. Wasn’t suited at all last start with the slack tempo after settling last. Has a good record at this track and distance, a good record on soft ground, and Pike jumps back on. Goes back again even though he’s drawn a great barrier, but looks a winnable race. CHASING CHAOS led at his own leisure last start and was very close to clinging on, just being run down to lose by a nose. That was in this grade and at this track and distance, and he looks to get a very soft lead once again here. He struggles to run out a strong 1600m, but he’ll once again run the race to suit himself, and with the low barrier draw, the low weight, and good form on soft ground, he should be in it for a very long way. PROPERANTES isn’t hopeless at double figure odds. Has a great record at this track and distance and has good form on soft ground. If you put a line through his last run and assess him off his previous two runs, he rates as a live chance here. Just needs a good ride from the 3kg apprentice from the wide gate. OUR FINEST MOMENT is going well and should be in the finish again. 1600m will test.
TIP: Universal Law / Chasing Chaos EW
Race 7
Two each way bets for me in a tough race. I AM INCREDIBLE has placed in six of eight starts over this track and distance, and has run top two in both starts on soft ground (which were also over this track and distance). From the good draw they should be able to take up a prominent position and that should be enough to see them in the finish at the $7 mark. POP HERO has a great record on the soft tracks with four wins from eight starts. He won four starts ago over this track and distance and has had excuses in his subsequent runs. He actually beat I Am Incredible that day, and gets a 4.5kg weight swing in his favour today. Has had 28 days off since his last start failure, and gets in with just 52.5kg after the claim here. Draws to sit much closer in the run and could go close at $9. FORBIDDEN PLANET worth including at double figure odds. Not convinced 1000m is LOCKROY’s best distance so prepared to take him on at the short quote.
TIP: I Am Incredible / Pop Hero EW
Race 8
It looks a nice race for DIABLERIE to win again after winning over 1200m here last start. Rock hard fit, no problems at 1300m, draws the inside barrier so should box seat and get the run of the race. Has won on soft ground, and with the 3kg claim it means he carries 1kg less than last start and also gets a 1.5g weight swing on KAAPANDER who ran 2nd. $3.80 looks a reasonable price. ATLANTA BLUE is in very consistent form having finished in the placings at his last eight starts. Has never missed a place on soft ground and draws to be given every chance once again so he should be in the finish. FINAL SALUTE is first up here after finishing his campaign with a run in the G2 WATC Derby. Has won his only start over this distance and does get Pike’s services so could show up fresh but I’d rather the race-fit horse over this distance. MASSACHUSETTS has a good record on soft ground and gets a 2.5kg weight swing on Atlanta Blue from running 2nd to him three starts ago so include at double figure odds.
TIP: Diablerie
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
