Australia vs India 4th Test Preview
When: January 6th – 10th
Where: SCG, Sydney
The fourth and final Test match starts at the SCG on Tuesday with Australia taking an unassailable 2-0 lead into the contest.
Firstly, let me say I was bitterly disappointed to see Australia refuse to set up the game on Day 5 of the 3rd Test at the MCG. Many support Smith’s decision to bat India out of the game, but if we are scared of a team chasing a world record 350 off 75 overs on Day 5 of a Test match, then we’re not as good as we think we are. Smith should’ve backed his bowlers and encouraged a positive mindset instead of playing so defensively. There’s no way India would’ve got close to that score, so what are we scared of? They are also paid to entertain. More fans turned up to the Big Bash at Etihad Stadium that night than were at the MCG during the day, so I think that says a lot.
Moving on, we now really need the Aussies to win here in Sydney to secure our predicted 3-0 series result. They have lost their gun fast bowler in Mitchell Johnson through hamstring soreness with Mitch Starc getting another call up. You’d have to think Starc will come out and bowl with the aggression that he discovered in the Big Bash, so if he does that, then expect good things.
India will be rocked somewhat by the strange timing of MS Dhoni’s retirement, but it opens the door to a new era led by Virat Kohli who is building his own reputation on the way to perhaps becoming a great batsman and leader in his own right.
While the Indian batting has proven to be strong, their bowlers continue to struggle to take wickets. You also feel that they will be a little disheartened now and looking to get this series over with.
The Indians probably won’t get much help in Sydney, with a reported green tinge on the pitch which suggests that it will have some pace early without much help for spinners until late in the match.
Weather: A small chance of some showers on Day 2 on Wednesday, but unlikely to be enough to cause too much lost time in the match.
Verdict: Australia have a history of failing to lift for dead rubbers, but you’d have to think that India’s spirit might be drained now that the series result has been decided. I think there’s a good chance that India collapse in this match, or the alternative is that we get another contest dominated by the bat.
Betting
Overall Profit/Loss: +2.33 units
Australia to win at $1.94 at Palmerbet is tempting for a small play, but since we already have our major play on the 3-0 futures result, we’re not going to double up there. If you don’t have that futures bet, then $1.94 is worth a play.
The alternative play is to make a small saver on the draw at $3.50 at Ladbrokes if you’re concerned about the Indian batting.
Cricket Bets
Fall of Indian first wicket over 25.5 @$1.87 at Luxbet (1 unit)
Nathan Lyon H2H most wickets in match vs Ravi Ashwin @$1.87 at Luxbet (1 unit)
Josh Hazelwood H2H most wickets in match vs Umesh Yadav @$1.70 at Luxbet (1 unit)
Futures
We’re looking for an Australian win to make it a 3-0 result for a +12 unit collect, and if Steve Smith can maintain his lead in the series run scorers list then we’ll pocket another +7 unit profit to make it a very good overall series for us.
