We are on the road to Roland Garros, and the ATP action for the fortnight is headlined by the action in Rome. Ace takes a look at a match-ups involving Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev and provides his best bets from the ATP Rome event.
ATP Rome - Novak Djokovic vs Corentin Moutet
Saturday, May 11th 3:00am AEST
Novak Djokovic is playing somewhat sparingly this year, and I don't feel he truly warrants being a player that is sub $1.10 on clay against an enigma with a high ceiling like Corentin Moutet. Djokovic hasn't yet reached the heights of his best career levels in 2024, and looked solid without looking exceptional in Madrid a couple of weeks ago. He was able to notch up wins against Safiullin, Musetti and De Minaur, however when you zoom out and look at his level across the course of the season to date, I'm not enticed by his price.
Moutet is an enigmatic player, and there is a massive discrepancy between his best and worst level. That means it can be tricky to feel confident backing him in at the shorter odds, however when he is showing up as $8 head to head, it can be a little easier to swallow. This looks to be one of those opportunities, and at the current price I am comfortable making a 0.5 unit selection.
Corentin Moutet to win
$8.25 (0.5 units)
ATP Rome – Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper
Saturday, May 11th 8:20pm AEST
I am a little surprised to see Daniil Medvedev in the draw here, given his recent injury issues in Madrid and how close we are to Roland Garros. I can understand ultimately why he is here, as the Russian is defending his 2023 title. He takes on the talented Jack Draper in the first round, and it shapes as a fascinating encounter.
Medvedev has made his dislike for clay well known to everyone, however he does still have fleeting moments of quality tennis on the surface. However, when I look at his clay output in 2024, and consider he is coming into this one off an injury scare in Madrid, one that caused him to retire at the end of the first set against Jiri Lehecka, I am not sure I can find any value in his price here.
Myself, like many others, are incredibly high on the talent of Jack Draper, however he still hasn’t put together a large enough body of form to be able to trust him to play out matches to the best of his ability. He is improving, however looking at overall form, fitness and odds, my preference lies with splitting my selection across Draper winning the first set and winning the match. Happy to place 0.75 units on each.
Also backing: Jack Draper to win - $3.00 at Bet365 (0.75 units)
Jack Draper to win 1st set
$2.63 (0.75 units)
