We head to Perth after a very short break for the 3rd Test of the Ashes series starting on Friday. Boy, were the Aussies impressive in Adelaide! They made a flat deck look tough to bat on with a superb spell of bowling in the 1st innings by Mitchell Johnson that ultimately won them the match. The Aussies are also making runs which really is the difference between this series and the one in England.
It’s unlikely to rain at all, and the Poms just aren’t going to be able to cope with the pace of a bouncy WACA green top. It’s seriously green and the Aussies will probably play four quicks.
What can England do? Well, Monty Panesar won’t play so that opens it up for Tim Bresnan to come in. Ben Stokes showed some promise with the bat, and was the fastest of the English bowlers with the ball, so he will probably be retained.
The Poms have only ever won once at the WACA and that’s just not going to change in this match. The Aussies opened at $1.85 and that was quickly snapped up, as they have now shortened to $1.75. Load up.
We’ll be taking up the promotion at Betfair to give a boost in odds to $2.50 on Australia for a maximum bet of $50. Just make sure you don’t lay off that bet later on, otherwise you won’t receive the boosted odds.
Prop bets
George Bailey to score more 1st Innings runs versus Steve Smith - $1.95 at Centrebet. Smith looked horribly out of form while Bailey is starting to find his feet in Test cricket. Bailey is also very good off the back foot, and enjoys batting in Perth, scoring a one-day ton here earlier in the year against the West Indies. Both are confidence players, so I’m happy to take the guy who is riding high at the moment with a strong bet on Bailey.
Futures
The series leading run scorer markets look to be a race in two between Michael Clarke and David Warner, but there is a long way to go in this one, and it would only take one big score from the likes of Watson, Pietersen or Bell to get right into contention. Brad Haddin has also done nothing wrong either, so there might be some value if you look to one of the outsiders.
The series leading wicket taker looks to be a done deal with Mitchell Johnson firing on all cylinders. His 17 wickets puts him six ahead of Stuart Broad and nine ahead of Ryan Harris. We backed Johnson at $8.00 before the series so you can now lay it off it you want on Betfair and lock in a very nice profit.
Our series prediction of 2-2 is now looking decidedly shaky with England needing to turn things around drastically. Currently it’s the Aussies 4-0 and 5-0 that have firmed into favouritism.
The other bet we gave before the series was No Follow On for the series at $1.50 on Sportsbet. If you look at how that last game went with Australia leading by 400 on the 1st Innings and still not enforcing the follow up, we’re feeling pretty confident on this one.
