Happy New Year punters! Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Ascot on New Year’s Day, featuring the Group 2 Perth Cup!
We have an eight-race card with the track rated a Good 4 with the rail out 5m. The track played in superb order on Saturday, but the rail was moved out from 3m to 10m for that meeting. It moves back to 5m here, so the inside 5m of the track will be a fresh pad of grass. That may mean early in the day it could be playing to swoopers, but I’ll try to walk the track and post my thoughts on Twitter.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
ASCOT RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 4 Silverstream
Best Value: Race 2 Rubia Miss
Race 1
Tough race to start off with here with a number of debutantes. I’ve tried to narrow it down to a handful. As much as I hate going with favourites in these races, I think ASSETRO will be hard to beat. She’s just had the one trial leading into this but it was pretty impressive. She was only given a very quiet time of things, but she coasted to the line under a stranglehold from well back in the field and was rapidly taking ground off the leaders. There’s been a stack of money in early betting and from this stable, that’s a telling factor. Hard to beat from the good draw. I think the value is the Trevor Andrews-trained REGAL COUNSEL from barrier 1. He’s had two trials leading into this and the stable certainly know how to prepare two-year-olds. Lee Newman is in good form and the inside gate helps so at $26 he’s worth a spec bet. CAROLINA REAPER showed plenty of speed in his trials before his debut run, but was disappointing at his first start. He turned that around completely in his second start and showed the form he showed in his trials, cruising to a 1.5L win. He’s had 56 days off the track since then and carries top weight here, but he’s always shown plenty and has race experience on his side. BAM’S ON FIRE has won both her trials leading into today, the latest of which was a 3.25L win over Regal Counsel. Looks to have plenty of talent and she draws nicely in barrier 4, but the biggest concern for me is the jockey booking of Renee Forrest. PLAY HARD trialled fairly and comes from a very strong stable so must be respected at big odds.
TIP: Assetro / Regal Counsel EW
Race 2
Keen to bet here. FLASH OF THUNDER was dominant on debut at Bunbury and while this is significantly harder, he looks to be pretty smart. He’ll likely lead and my only concern is whether the inside of the track will be the place to be early. I think the value is RUBIA MISS, who showed she may be returning to her best form last start when running 2nd to Arrum Boy. She draws well here and gets the red-hot Chris Parnham on board. Parnham is putting on a clinic in William Pike’s absence and his booking here catches the eye. $8.50 is a great price for her as she’d win this on her best form. YINDI was huge on debut after being caught wide without cover the entire trip and still managing to get within a head of the winner. She’ll be much better off with that run under her belt and her trials leading into her debut were good, so she has to be included. COGNAC is another that showed he is close to a return to form, and like Rubia Miss, his best form would probably win this. STREET FURY will be thereabouts.
TIP: Flash Of Thunder / Rubia Miss EW
Race 3
NEW AGE has been a drifter in early betting but she looks very hard to beat here on the back of a dominant win over track and distance last time out. This is by far her biggest test and she takes on some decent horses today, but she looks very progressive and gets both a good draw and a gun jockey, so she should be hard to beat again. REEF KEEPER looks a good price at $10. He ran 2nd to New Age last start and was beaten comfortably, but didn’t have everything go his way. COULEUR BIZZARE has been racing in much better races than this and did run 2nd to Trap For Fools back in November. That form looks outstanding for a race like this. DUDEMANBRO and SOPHIE’S REVENGE are others to consider.
TIP: New Age / Reef Keeper EW
Race 4
Two horse race in my opinion. SILVERSTREAM is absolutely flying this preparation with three wins from five starts. She dropped back to the 1400m last start and was still much too good, and she steps up to the 1800m for the first time this prep here. She has run over this distance once before – a runner-up finish behind stablemate Cosmic Storm in Group 3 company at the end of last preparation. She has the burden of top weight here and 59.5kg won’t make life easy for her, but she looks to have a distinct class edge on these. FONTAINBLEU could be the only one that can beat her. She’s just starting to come good and has run 2nd to the hugely talented Celebrity Dream in her past two starts. The step up to 1800m will definitely suit her and she does carry 3kg less than Silverstream so she should go close once again.
TIP: Silverstream
Race 5
Interesting little race. WRINKLY is flying, winning his past two races with daring frontrunning tactics, but has a couple of negatives against him today. Firstly, the jockey change of Brad Parnham off and Steven Parnham on is a big negative, while the step up to 1600m may also find him out. They said after his last start that they doubt he’d run 1600m, so with the rise to 60kg here, he may just be a bit vulnerable. GUNNAGO got close to him last start and gets a small weight swing today. He even beat Celebrity Dream three starts ago, which is terrific form, but he looks short enough at the $2.60 quote. Two that interest me at each way prices are LUKE’S GOLD and WOODSVILLE. Luke’s Gold looks ready to win third up from a spell and up to 1600m. He was only a length behind Wrinkly last start and first up ran 3rd behind La Mouline and Royal Star. He’ll need a good ride from barrier 8, and while Randy Tan isn’t a strong jockey booking, he comes up a reasonable price at $6.50. Woodsville, on the other hand, landed a big plunge when winning over 1800m last start. The nine-year-old has previously never placed from four starts over 1800m at Ascot, so the fact he’s only placed once from eight starts over the 1600m here can be ignored a little. It’s worth noting that there has been some good early money once again for this horse, and if he continues to shorten before the race, it’s a god sign he’ll go close. There’s still $8 available for him and most other places are $6. CRUACHAN next best.
TIP: Luke’s Gold EW / Woodsville EW
Race 6
I’ve got no real knock on REGAL MOON here but just at the price, I’ll be taking her on. She’s run 2nd at her past three starts but the form from those races hasn’t exactly stood up. Interested in another two at each way odds here. WHERE’S WALLY showed plenty as a three-year-old and has had no luck so far this preparation. First up he was tightened late so the margin he was beaten was bigger than it should have been. He was also first up from a very long spell so would have needed the run. Last start he was held up until the 150m mark and looked to have a bit to give, so third up today he should be ready to go. I don’t think the wide draw is a problem and $8.50 is an appealing price. PARIS TEXAS is the other I like at $7. This horse won first up at Pinjarra before failing second up over 1200m here. But if you look at his record, he always runs flat second up (four starts, no placings). But he bounces back off that second up run and comes good again third up, so he’s right in this. Tayla Stone takes 3kg off and he therefore gets in with just 53.5kg and he draws well in barrier 3. Looks a good chance today. KIMBO’S GIRL looks well over the odds at $31. Has a great record at this track and distance and has a great third up record, so can run well here. The negatives for him are obviously the wide barrier and the fact his jockey has never ridden a Saturday winner. CAPRICORN DANCER and COUNT TOMOZ OFF need to be included.
TIP: Paris Texas / Where’s Wally EW
Race 7
Tricky race this. CELEBRITY DREAM has won over 1000m, 1200m, 1400m an 1600m this preparation, and drops back from the mile to 1000m here, which normally for me would be a huge negative but this horse, and this stable, are capable of pulling it off. She’s a very good mare and Chris Parnham chooses to ride her instead of Dainty Tess. CAIPIRINHIA has easily been the best backed since the scratching of Durendal, and she will roll across from the wide barrier to lead. Her record over the Ascot 1000m is very good and given there doesn’t look to be a great deal of speed in the race, she can definitely win. DAINTY TESS will run well as she always does, especially with the good draw. VOLKOFF also has a terrific record over this track and distance and ran good time when winning last start. Going to need to come from back in the field but certainly capable. UNIVERSAL MOON the blowout. Hard to split the top four and any of them could win.
TIP: Celebrity Dream
Race 8
Read our comprehensive preview of the Group 2 Perth Cup here!
Race 9
Good little race to finish off with. ILLUSTRIOUS TYCOON is undefeated from two starts and he beat Cognac at his most recent outing. That horse won Race 2 today so the form has been franked and he deserves favouritism here. His price is a bit skinny but he’ll be hard to beat with even luck from barrier 10. The cerise and white pair of ROYAL COMMAND and SHOW HONEY will be right in the finish. Royal Command is first up and has won three of his five starts. Chris Parnham takes the ride on him which suggests to me he’s probably the top elect of the Peters horses. Show Honey is second up after running 3rd first up. She has a great second up record and just needs luck from the wide barrier. I think the big value in the race is ONE SHORT, who s first up from a spell here. This horse has a terrific fresh record and put together a couple of very good win last preparation, and was given a big push by his trainer ahead of the Belmont Guineas. He may need further than 1200m but he gets a suck run here and $18 looks a big price.
TIP: Illustrious Tycoon / One Short EW
QUADDIE
5, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14
2, 3, 5, 6
1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 15
4, 6, 12, 14
$100 = 17.36%
Tips are provided for entertainment and information purposes, and do not guarantee profit. Always gamble responsibly.
