The 2026 AFLW home-and-away season reaches its conclusion this weekend, with Round 12 set to deliver plenty of drama as clubs fight for finals positions, home-ground advantage and the all-important double chance.
After 11 rounds of competition, the finals picture is almost complete, but there is still plenty at stake across the final nine matches. One position in the top eight remains up for grabs, while several teams already assured of September action will be desperate to secure the best possible path through the finals series.
At the top of the ladder, the battle for qualifying final positions adds another layer of intrigue, with even the smallest percentage swing potentially influencing where teams finish. For those still chasing a finals berth, the equation is considerably more straightforward: win, hope other results fall their way, and keep their premiership ambitions alive.
The final round also presents some interesting opportunities for punters. While motivation is particularly important at this stage of the season, teams with little left to play for can still prove dangerous, especially against opponents carrying the pressure of finals expectations. With several substantial handicaps and some closely matched contests on the schedule, finding value in the line markets could be just as important as picking outright winners.
The action begins on Friday night with Geelong hosting the Western Bulldogs, before a packed weekend of football brings the regular season to a close. We've analysed all nine AFLW Round 12 matches, assessing recent form, team news and the betting markets to bring you our best bets and recommended stakes for the final round before the finals.
AFLW Round 12 Betting Tips
| Match |
Best Bet |
Odds (Units) |
| Geelong vs Western Bulldogs |
Western Bulldogs +27.5 |
$1.87 (1 Unit) |
| St Kilda vs Port Adelaide |
Port Adelaide -23.5 |
$1.89 (1.5 Units) |
| Richmond vs North Melbourne |
North Melbourne -53.5 |
$1.89 (1 Unit) |
| Brisbane vs Carlton |
Carlton -6.5 |
$1.87 (2 Units) |
| West Coast vs Hawthorn |
Hawthorn -9.5 |
$1.88 (2 Units) |
| GWS vs Gold Coast |
Gold Coast -24.5 |
$1.88 (1.5 Units) |
| Essendon vs Collingwood |
Essendon -10.5 |
$1.88 (2 Units) |
| Adelaide vs Melbourne |
Adelaide +12.5 |
$1.90 (1 Unit) |
| Fremantle vs Sydney |
Fremantle +12.5 |
$1.87 (1.5 Units) |
Geelong vs Western Bulldogs
Friday 7:15pm AEDT, GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Geelong made it ten straight wins with a 30-point victory over Fremantle, and their midfield continues to give opponents headaches. Georgie Prespakis, Nina Morrison and Amy McDonald combined for 17 clearances, while the Cats kept the Dockers to one behind across the middle two quarters. The Bulldogs face a difficult task without injured co-captain Isabelle Pritchard and the rested Ellie Blackburn. Those are significant losses against a side playing for a home qualifying final.
Still, the Dogs have beaten Gold Coast, Carlton and Sydney this season, so their eight wins haven’t simply come against the strugglers. Their pressure kept them competitive against Melbourne last week, with poor finishing contributing to the 17-point defeat. They’ll need to make better use of their opportunities here, particularly with less experience around the ball. Geelong deserve favouritism, but a 27.5-point start gives the Bulldogs some room. We’re backing their pressure to keep the margin manageable for a small stake.
BEST BET
Western Bulldogs +27.5
$1.87 (1 Unit)
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide
Saturday 1:05pm AEDT, RSEA Park, Melbourne
St Kilda’s effort has improved under Matt Brewer, but last week’s 52-point loss to Brisbane showed how much work remains. The Saints were still within reach at half-time before managing just two behinds in the second half. Their ball movement too often broke down before reaching a dangerous position, leaving the defence under sustained pressure. Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw’s return gives them an important forward target, although getting the ball to her remains the challenge.
Port Adelaide were far more convincing against Collingwood, winning 52-4 and keeping the Magpies goalless. There were still wasteful patches, but the Power repeatedly regained territory and prevented Collingwood from turning possession into scoring opportunities. That should serve them well against another side struggling to connect through the ground. Port’s slim finals hopes also require a substantial percentage boost, so there’s reason to keep attacking if they get ahead. We’re backing the Power to make their greater scoring threat count and cover the line.
BEST BET
Port Adelaide -23.5
$1.89 (1.5 Units)
Richmond vs North Melbourne
Saturday 3:05pm AEDT, Windy Hill, Melbourne
Richmond produced a much better effort against Gold Coast, falling four points short after moving the ball with more purpose and fighting back late. That deserves recognition after their 62-point defeat to Melbourne the previous week. However, the Tigers have now lost five straight, and their inability to contain opposition scoring runs remains a concern. Gold Coast turned an 11-point half-time deficit into a 20-point lead early in the final term before Richmond rallied.
North Melbourne had their own difficulties against Adelaide, needing a strong finish to escape with a nine-point win in wet conditions. Their previous visit to Windy Hill produced 85 points and a 52-point victory over Essendon, showing the damage they can do once they establish control. With Jasmine Garner and Ash Riddell driving their midfield, we expect North to make it harder for Richmond to move the ball as freely as they did last week. It’s a big line, but we’re backing the Roos to finish the regular season emphatically.
BEST BET
North Melbourne -53.5
$1.89 (1 Unit)
Brisbane vs Carlton
Saturday 5:05pm AEDT, Brighton Homes Arena, Ipswich
Brisbane have finally put consecutive wins together, following their victory over Port Adelaide with a 52-point win against St Kilda. Their ball movement was cleaner and nine different players kicked goals, giving the Saints too many options to cover. There’s enough experience in this Lions side to make Carlton uncomfortable at home, although beating the bottom side doesn’t erase the inconsistency that has left Brisbane outside the finals.
Carlton weren’t particularly convincing against GWS, but their defence stood up when needed. The Giants had 36 inside 50s and managed only three goals, with the Blues eventually finding enough going forward to win by 15 points. Claudia Whitfort gives Carlton a midfielder who can influence both the contest and the scoreboard, while Erone Fitzpatrick’s work across the ground has been valuable. Brisbane will offer more resistance than St Kilda did last week, but Carlton have been the more reliable side across the season. With the line only 6.5 points, we’re backing the Blues.
BEST BET
Carlton -6.5
$1.87 (2 Units)
West Coast vs Hawthorn
Saturday 7:15pm AEDT, Sullivan Logistics Stadium, Perth
West Coast offered much more against Sydney than they had against Geelong, leading at half-time and trailing by only two points at the last change. Their attack was productive, but Sydney eventually took control of territory and pulled away to win by 22. The Eagles conceded 40 inside 50s and couldn’t contain the Swans’ forwards late. Returning home helps, although they need to reduce the amount of defending they’re being asked to do.
Hawthorn can secure a finals berth with victory and will want a cleaner performance than last week’s five-point escape against Essendon. The Hawks were 14 ahead in inside 50s at half-time but failed to turn that advantage into a lead. Their ability to keep the ball forward was encouraging; the finishing was the problem. West Coast have enough attacking talent to punish another wasteful display, but Hawthorn should create opportunities if they reproduce that territorial pressure. We’re backing them to make better use of those chances and win by double figures.
BEST BET
Hawthorn -9.5
$1.88 (2 Units)
GWS vs Gold Coast
Sunday 12:35pm AEDT, Henson Park, Sydney
GWS have been more competitive over the past fortnight, beating Hawthorn before pushing Carlton into the final quarter. Alyce Parker’s work at stoppages has been important, but the Giants still struggle to turn possession into enough scoreboard pressure. They generated 36 inside 50s against the Blues and finished with 23 points. The conditions made scoring difficult, although their inability to capitalise during periods of control ultimately cost them.
Gold Coast also have things to tidy up after narrowly beating Richmond. Losing Daisy D’Arcy and Dekota Baron to concussion hurts, but Charlie Rowbottom and Niamh McLaughlin still give the Suns plenty of ball-winning ability, with Havana Harris providing a dangerous forward target. The Suns sit fourth and may need percentage as well as the win to protect their double chance. GWS should compete around the contest, but we favour Gold Coast’s ability to turn its opportunities into goals. We’re taking the Suns to pull away and cover 24.5 points.
BEST BET
Gold Coast -24.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Essendon vs Collingwood
Sunday 1:05pm AEDT, Windy Hill, Melbourne
Essendon came close to upsetting Hawthorn, defending stubbornly before spending much of the final quarter pressing for the winning goal. Moving the ball out of defence was a problem earlier in the match, but their effort never dropped away. Maddy Prespakis and Georgia Nanscawen give the Bombers a competitive midfield, while Bonnie Toogood remains an important target ahead of the ball. Against a less effective opponent, they should have more opportunities to connect those parts of their game.
Collingwood’s problems run deeper than simply losing the midfield battle. They led Port Adelaide 19-10 in clearances at half-time last week, yet had only ten inside 50s and one point to show for it. They eventually finished goalless in a 48-point defeat. Both clubs have just one win and will farewell their coaches after this match, with Natalie Wood and Sam Wright departing. Essendon’s recent resistance gives us more confidence than Collingwood’s inability to generate scores. We’re backing the Bombers to win by enough to cover.
BEST BET
Essendon -10.5
$1.88 (2 Units)
Adelaide vs Melbourne
Sunday 3:05pm AEDT, Unley Oval, Adelaide
Adelaide have earned more respect over the past fortnight. After beating Gold Coast, they led North Melbourne at three-quarter time before going down by nine points. The wet conditions helped keep that game tight, but the Crows still made the ladder leaders work for their opportunities. Their finals chances depend on Hawthorn losing on Saturday, so they could already be out of contention by the opening bounce. Either way, their recent performances suggest they can give Melbourne a difficult afternoon.
The Demons beat the Bulldogs by 17 points without producing their most fluent attacking football. Their midfield remains a major strength, but Adelaide have shown they can compete against quality opposition rather than rely entirely on Ebony Marinoff to keep them close. Melbourne will be without Sinead Goldrick and Shelley Heath-Barker, while the Crows lose suspended vice-captain Eloise Jones. We still favour Melbourne to win, but Adelaide’s improved competitiveness and home advantage make the 12.5-point start appealing.
BEST BET
Adelaide +12.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Fremantle vs Sydney
Sunday 5:05pm AEDT, Cockburn ARC Oval, Perth
Fremantle’s scoring problems were exposed against Geelong, with just one behind across the second and third quarters of a 30-point loss. Their pressure improved after a difficult start, but they couldn’t turn enough of their possession into chances. Sydney present another challenge, having kicked 80 and 78 points in consecutive wins. Chloe Molloy is a major threat, although the Swans also conceded eight goals to West Coast and needed a strong final quarter to get clear.
The ruck contest gives Fremantle a way into this game. With Sydney still without Ally Morphett, Mim Strom has an opportunity to give Kiara Bowers and the Dockers’ midfield first use and limit the supply reaching Molloy. Freo will need to use that ball better than they did in Geelong, but returning home makes them a more attractive proposition with the start. Sydney deserve favouritism, although their win over West Coast was far from comfortable for three quarters. We’re backing Fremantle to stay within 12.5 points.
BEST BET
Fremantle +12.5
$1.87 (1.5 Units)
