The AFLW finals are here, with four high-stakes matches across Melbourne, Sydney and the Gold Coast this weekend. Saturday’s qualifying finals at Ikon Park offer Geelong, Melbourne, North Melbourne and Carlton a chance to move closer to a preliminary final, while Sunday’s elimination finals leave no room for error.
Geelong enter on an 11-game winning streak but face a Melbourne side capable of challenging them at stoppages. North Melbourne begin their pursuit of a third straight premiership against Carlton, before Sydney host the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast take on Hawthorn in two intriguing Sunday contests.
We’ve assessed the key matchups, team news and recent form to find a betting selection for each of the four AFLW Finals Week 1 fixtures.
AFLW Finals Week 1 Preview & Betting Tips
| Match |
Best Bet |
Odds |
| Geelong v Melbourne |
Melbourne +9.5 |
$1.89 (1 unit) |
| North Melbourne v Carlton |
Carlton +27.5 |
$1.88 (1.5 units) |
| Sydney v Western Bulldogs |
Western Bulldogs +11.5 |
$1.88 (1 unit) |
| Gold Coast v Hawthorn |
Gold Coast 1–39 |
$1.67 (2 units) |
Geelong vs Melbourne
Saturday 1:05pm AEDT, Ikon Park, Melbourne
Geelong’s 88-20 win over the Bulldogs extended their winning streak to 11, but Melbourne present a different midfield challenge. The Cats lead the competition in scoring from stoppages, while the Demons concede the fewest points per game from that source. That gives Melbourne a credible way to slow Geelong down, although stopping their scoring from turnovers is another matter. The Cats have been considerably more productive than Melbourne in that area, so loose possessions could quickly undo the Dees’ work around the contest.
Melbourne regain Eliza McNamara and Olivia Purcell after beating Adelaide by 18 points without them. Those returns strengthen their options, although McNamara is playing her first game since Round 5 and cannot simply be expected to pick up where she left off. The Dees also rank second for scoring from stoppages, so they have their own means of putting Geelong’s defence under pressure. We still give the Cats the edge, but Melbourne’s work on both sides of the stoppage contest makes the 9.5-point start appealing.
Best Bet
Melbourne +9.5
$1.89 (1 Unit)
North Melbourne vs Carlton
Saturday 4:05pm AEDT, Ikon Park, Melbourne
North Melbourne finished with a 101-33 win over Richmond, and Carlton’s recent clearance struggles give the reigning premiers an obvious area to attack. The Blues rank last for average clearances across the past five rounds and now lose Claudia Whitfort to a hamstring injury. They cannot afford to spend the afternoon chasing North’s midfield, particularly when hurried attempts to escape pressure could give the Roos repeat opportunities to attack.
Carlton’s defence provides the stronger argument for taking the start. Harriet Cordner had 17 intercept possessions when these sides met in Round 5, helping hold North to 33 points in a 10-point defeat. That result does not guarantee another close game, but it shows the Blues can disrupt North’s supply even when Garner and Riddell find plenty of the ball. Last week, Carlton also held Brisbane to one goal after half-time while recovering from 22 points down. North deserve clear favouritism, but we’re backing Carlton’s defence to keep the margin inside 27.5 points.
Best Bet
Carlton +27.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Sydney vs Western Bulldogs
Sunday 1:05pm AEDT, Henson Park, Sydney
Sydney escaped Fremantle with a one-point win, with Chloe Molloy kicking four of their five goals. Keeping her quiet is a difficult assignment, but the Bulldogs also have a matchup they can exploit at the other end. Emma McDonald kicked three goals in their 27-point win over Sydney in Round 4, and the Dogs’ taller targets remain a concern for the Swans’ depleted defence. Getting clean supply to them is the challenge after Geelong repeatedly exposed the Bulldogs last week.
Isabelle Pritchard and Ellie Blackburn have been confirmed to return, giving the Dogs two important midfield options they lacked in that 68-point defeat. Pritchard’s nine clearances in the earlier Sydney meeting show why her inclusion matters, although returning from a knee injury brings some uncertainty. Sydney could also regain Sofia Hurley, who was awaiting a fitness test in the latest squad announcement. We’re not dismissing the Dogs’ poor finish to the season, but their returning midfielders and forward height give them a reasonable route back into this contest. We’ll take the 11.5-point start.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs +11.5
$1.88 (1 Unit)
Gold Coast vs Hawthorn
Sunday 3:05pm AEDT, People First Stadium, Gold Coast
Gold Coast’s 62-53 win over GWS came despite conceding five unanswered goals in the third quarter, so there is good reason to be cautious about backing a big margin. Their forward options look stronger this week, with Dekota Baron named at full-forward and Ava Usher also named to return. Alongside Havana Harris, they give the Suns multiple marking targets. That is where we see Gold Coast causing problems, provided their midfield can deliver the ball before Hawthorn’s defenders have time to get across and help.
Hawthorn’s threat goes beyond last week’s 55-point win over West Coast. Jac Dupuy’s contested marking and work in forward-50 ruck contests give them another avenue to goal alongside Aine McDonagh. Gold Coast cannot assume that winning the midfield battle will be enough if the Hawks remain dangerous whenever they get the ball forward. We narrowly favour the Suns with their attacking options strengthened, but Hawthorn have enough weapons to make them earn it. A competitive game suits the Gold Coast 1-39 selection better than expecting the hosts to run away with it.
Best Bet
Gold Coast 1-39
$1.67 (2 Units)
