The 2024 AFL Grand Final is set for this Saturday afternoon as we see Sydney and Brisbane clash at the MCG. This is a grand final that is years in the making as two sides will look to avenge their recent grand final losses. Sydney were embarrassed on the final day in 2022, while Brisbane got as close as you can get in 2023, losing one of the most exciting finals in recent memory. During 2024 these two sides have lived very opposite paths with Sydney absolutely dominating the first half of the season and looking totally unbeatable before falling off in the final third of the year. Brisbane on the other hand came into the season lack luster after last years grand final heart break and after a 2-5 start, looked like their chances of avenging last year were all but over. Since then they stormed back into contention and made it through to the grand final the hard way by winning three striaght finals.
This should be a cracking game, but even more exciting is the massive $175,000 prize pool that Draftstars have set for the main contest this grand final weekend. In addition, there are a variety of alternate contests:
- AFL $175,000+ Swans vs Lions
- AFL $20,000+ Swans vs Lions High Roller ($150 Entry)
- AFL $2,500+ Swans vs Lions Fiver
- AFL $10,000+ Swans vs Lions Mini ($2 Entry)
Betting Markets
Sydney ($1.75) vs Brisbane ($2.08)
Points: 172.5
Line: Sydney -3.5
If you’re looking to bet on the Grand Final this Saturday, then you can bet with PlayUp by using the same account that you have at Draftstars. PlayUp are Australian owned and offer a strong range of AFL betting markets and offers, including Same Game Multis.
Additionally, we have a full AFL Grand Final Betting Preview for the game where we provide our best bet for the game as well as a great value Same Game Multi!
Weather
22 degrees and sunny. An absolute corker of a day expected in Melbourne this Saturday for the grand final. Nothing that will impact the fantasy scoring.
Where to Attack?
No shock that neither Sydney or Brisbane are conceding significant points to any position over the last 10 games given these are the final two teams standing for 2024. As we have noted in past rounds the one area the Swans have been conceding above average points is to the opposition back line, which is consistent with the general game script approach of stacking up backs from a losing side.
Brisbane on the other hand have given up over 6 points above average to wings and rebounding defenders over the last 10 games, which is an area to note especially on the bigger ground of the MCG.
These two sides met once this year and the Lions won a nail biter at the Gabba. In this game Dayne Zorko was the game’s leading scorer across half back with 131 points, which fits the defenders against Sydney narrative. From the Swans, both Robbie Fox and Matthew Roberts topped the 100 point mark, which also fits the wing defender narrative.
Game Script – Brisbane backs and inside midfielders, Sydney wings
VALUE PLAYS
Sub Watch – Robbie Fox ($7,300)
Robbie has consistently been the sub in the last three games he’s played and it’s very likely that they will go in unchanged this week. However, as noted above, in the event he starts on the ground this week, he’s the obvious value play given he is under-priced from sub impacted scores and it’s a positive matchup for him as seen by his last game against Brisbane.
Luke Parker ($9,240) looks to be primarily playing a forward role at this point as seen by just the single centre bounce attendance last week and a 39 point fantasy score. I still love him in a grand final as a player that could be called upon when needed or could easily jag a few goals up forward to win a game. In a matchup where the value plays are very hard to find going to a proven veteran is a solid strategy. That said, with Justin McInerney ($9,960) as just a few hundred higher in price, I think he’s the lock value play in this matchup given the fact Lions can leak to the wings and he is fresh off a solid 74 point game last week.
A value forward play will likely hit in the grand final and be the key to the winning sides. Look to build your teams around your stacks based on who you think will win. For the Lions I like including Eric Hipwood ($7,190) who has yet to have a breakout finals game, or Callum Ah Chee ($8,380) who is having some of the moments of his career. For the Swans Joel Amartey ($7,200) will be popular after being the key to winning sides last week with an 84 point game.
MID PRICED PLAYS
Joe Daniher ($10,830) could get added opportunity up the ground and in the ruck in this matchup given Oscar McInerney is out. If Darcy Fort starts getting soundly beaten or is subbed off as we get to towards the end of the game, Daniher could be given ample fantasy scoring opportunities. He already has 100 point upside in his current role and he posted 80 fantasy points kicking 3.3 during their only matchup this season.
PREMIUM PLAYS
Brodie Grundy ($14,000) could be the big beneficiary of Oscar being out injured. He will draw a much easier matchup against Fort and the wide size of the MCG will better suit Grundy compared to the SCG. He hasn’t been in great fantasy scoring form during the recent finals games, however all aspects of this matchup stand out to see a wind the clock back type of game this week.
Dayne Zorko ($15,910) continues to age like a fine wine and every aspect of this matchup indicates chances of a huge game for Zorko. The Swans give up points to defenders, Zorko top scored their only game this season with a huge 131 points, and this game is at the MCG which always suits half backs due its size. In addition, historically there is usually a half back the features heavily on grand final day so spending up in that role is often a key play.
Other premium plays that look enticing include Errol Gulden ($15,580) who saw a spike in inside midfield time last week and will suit well to the MCG, and Hugh McCluggage ($14,950) who’s in career best form and will potentially be a overlooked compared to other high priced midfielders.
Suggested Draftstars Team
Cheat Sheet
